RADIO
Week 18 is insane because we know very little about who is going to play and what is going to happen; even more than usual. There are teams with something to play for but everyone knows that and they will carry the highest ownership. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t look at teams like Dallas or Philadelphia, but figuring out where else we can find productive stacks is the most fun part of Week 18. Consider Dallas, Philadelphia, Green Bay (my favorite non-Dallas stack this week), and Seattle as stacks you can comfortably roll with; I’m going to find you three more you can play that should be way off the chalky path.
One of the main strategies I tend to employ for Week 18 is to take advantage of the micro-slates; early-only and late-only. The majority of the more popular plays will come from the late windrow, and that’s where people are going to focus the majority of their attention. By breaking down your builds into these micro-slates, you will access stacks that others may not see. Playing those stacks on the full slate can give you a competitive advantage over those players who will be riding the heavy chalk.
While Skyler is moving on from this column for the rest of the year, I'm here to hold it down for the final week of the regular season and possibly the playoffs, too! Here are my favorite potentially overlooked team stacks and game stacks for the NFL DFS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that kicks off at 1:00 PM EST on Sunday, January 7.
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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
- Nick Mullens ($5,100 DK, $7,100 FD)
- Justin Jefferson ($8,500 DK, $9,000 FD)
- Jordan Addison ($5,300 DK, $6,700 FD) or Johnny Mundt ($3,000 DK, $4,500 FD)
This play is 100% based on motivation and perception; Minnesota will have it and the Lions most likely will not, yet I’m not sure that the general public realizes that the Vikings can still make the playoffs and that the Lions have a 98% chance of being locked into the three seed in the NFC. This game is in the early window, meaning Minnesota won’t know how the Packers or Seahawks fared in their games, giving them full motivation to win this game. It wouldn’t shock me at all if Detroit sat their most important players, most importantly Aiden Hutchinson on defense. If the pass rush for the Lions loses their best weapon, that should open things up for the Vikings passing game to take advantage of a suspect Detroit secondary.
The last time these two teams faced off, Nick Mullens threw four interceptions, but he also accumulated over 400 passing yards and 23.54 DraftKings points. Justin Jefferson saw 10 targets in that game, the same number of targets he’s had in each of his last three games. Given his game-breaking ability, that’s more than enough volume to pay off his price tag. Jefferson could be considered a value given that he’s generally priced in the $9,000 range and this week he’s only $8,500. Jordan Addison is the easy secondary play, but he only has four total catches his last two weeks and is taking a big back seat to Jefferson. Instead, Johnny Mundt could be the better play as your second pass catcher for Minnesota. He’s been the clear replacement thus far for T.J. Hockenson, receiving 10 targets compared to Josh Oliver’s four targets over the last two weeks. Mundt’s $3,000 price point helps to offset Justin Jefferson’s cap hit and will allow you to use a couple of higher-priced players as a secondary stack.
Vikings starting Nick Mullens at QB Sunday. He was 22-of-36 for 411 yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs in Detroit's 30-24 win over Minnesota Week 16.
— Tim Twentyman (@ttwentyman) January 3, 2024
Bring-back options:
- Kalif Raymond ($3,000 DK, $5,100 FD)
- Craig Reynolds ($4,000 DK, $4,400 FD)
I’m running off the assumption that the Lions will be sitting the majority of their starters in this game, or at the very least they’ll get limited work. If that’s the case, then it’s a crapshoot as to who will be on the field for them or how productive they will be. I assume that Kalif Raymond would act as the de-facto top wide receiver and he’s got just enough big-play upside in his game that he’d be worth a stab as a bring-back play. Craig Reynolds is a cheap running back option if he were to get the entire workload, and he’s a strong option around the goal line with his low center of gravity. I’m not running to use either of them unless we get word that Detroit is 100% sitting their starters and I needed a punt play at their respective positions.
MY FAVORITE VARIATION: Mullens-Jefferson-Mundt (no bring-back)
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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans
- Trevor Lawrence ($6,800 DK, $7,500 FD)
- Calvin Ridley ($6,500 DK, $6,900 FD)
- Christian Kirk ($3,000 DK, $4,000 FD) or Evan Engram ($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD)
“Win and in” is a very enticing phrase when looking for a team to stack this weekend. The Jaguars know exactly what they need to do to lock in their playoff hopes, and it’s unlikely that they’ll be taking their foot off the gas in this game. Trevor Lawrence is banged up, Calvin Ridley is inconsistent, and Christian Kirk is coming off a serious injury; making Jacksonville one of the sketchier stacking options for people who are looking for a team with motivation to use. Jacksonville could get up a couple of scores quickly and just resort to the running game, as they did last weekend against Carolina. Trevor Lawrence could also reinjure himself, which would tank your entire stack. That uncertainty should leave the Jags with an ownership lower than you’d expect given their circumstances, but in a GPP you need to be willing to finish last if you want to finish first.
The biggest appeal with this lineup is that you may be able to lock Christian Kirk in for the stone minimum price on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He was limited in practice today (Thursday) and there’s no guarantee that he plays or plays effectively, but at his price point, you can’t stack the Jaguars without including him. His price gives you so much flexibility with the rest of our lineup. If Kirk doesn’t suit up, then the easy way to go here is with Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram with Parker Washington and Tim Jones becoming dart throw plays (assuming Zay Jones is also inactive, as expected).
Bring-back options:
- DeAndre Hopkins ($6,100 DK, $6,800 FD)
The Titans have nothing to play for outside of price, but DeAndre Hopkins is playing for hundreds of thousands of dollars. He needs seven catches, 49 yards, and two touchdowns to rack in an additional $750,000 in salary this year. The touchdowns are hard to predict, but nothing is stopping Tennessee from feeding Hopkins to get those catches and yards, both of which are easily attainable goals. The Jaguars' pass defense has been awful this year, and the last time the two teams met Hopkins produced a line of 4-59-1, good for 15.9 DraftKings points.
Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins can hit more incentives in Week 18 https://t.co/Capfeu8y25 pic.twitter.com/Tmp5RWDqZa
— The Titans Wire (@TheTitansWire) January 4, 2024
MY FAVORITE VARIATION: Lawrence-Kirk-Ridley-Hopkins (bring-back)
Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos (Milly Maker Special)
- Aidan O’Connell ($5,400 DK, $6,700 FD)
- Davante Adams ($7,900 DK, $7,700 FD)
- Zamir White ($6,000 DK, $6,500 FD) or Jakobi Meyers ($5,400 DK, $6,700 FD)
For the second week in a row, the Denver Broncos feature in the Milly Maker Special. Dan and I must both breathe the same rarified air. The Broncos had a nice run in the middle of the season, but they are now eliminated from playoff contention and probably just want to get their controversial season over with. Meanwhile, the Raiders could be playing to get a contract for their Interim Head Coach, Antonio Pierce. The team appears to have rallied around him, playing like a different squad since he took over from the fired Josh McDaniels. Aidan O’Connell looks like he may be a half-decent NFL quarterback, and he’s shown the ability to be a fantasy asset on multiple occasions this year. He’s scored more than 20 DraftKings points in two of his last three games; attempting 32 or more passes in five of his last six starts. He’s been peppering Davante Adams, who has double-digit targets in five of his last seven games, including a ridiculous 21 targets against the Colts last weekend. He’s the surefire pass-catcher you want to stack with O’Connell. The second player could be one of three players: Jakobi Meyers if you want the top two wide receivers, Zamir White if you want to cover the entire offense, or Tre Tucker if you want a punt option with upside. All three have had varying levels of success since O’Connell took over as the starter. White is the safest option, and with his emergence in the passing game (11 targets over the last three weeks) he may be the option with the highest upside as well.
DAVANTE ADAMS WHEN IT MATTERS MOST 🔥
HE’S GOT 37.6 POINTS‼️ pic.twitter.com/ExiFKkxYQ4
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) December 31, 2023
Bring-back options:
- Courtland Sutton ($6,400 DK, $6,800 FD)
The Broncos' offense is a mess, but this is a bit of a revenge game for Jarrett Stidham as he was on the Raiders last season. We have seen that he’s able to get the ball down the field both in his start against the 49ers last year and a little bit last weekend against the Chargers. It looks like he will have his top target back in the fold this weekend as Courtland Sutton was a full participant in practice on Thursday. Sutton has 10 touchdowns and 12 games with double-digit fantasy points. Nobody else on the Broncos registers as a worthwhile play this weekend.
MY FAVORITE VARIATION: O’Connell-Adams-White-Sutton (bring-back)
Good luck in your contests this week, RotoBallers, and remember not to be afraid to be different with those GPP lineups!
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