Overrated and Underrated NFL Teams: Week 18 AFC Contenders and Pretenders

Only one week of the 2023 NFL regular season remains, meaning it's almost time to begin "win or go home" games in the postseason. As always, it's been an exciting roller coaster of a year, and only one team will be satisfied when the season comes to a close.

There are no official "rankings" in the NFL, so we'll examine recent hype and public perception of some of the potential AFC playoff teams after Week 17.

In this article, we'll take a deep dive into the dynamic landscape of the NFL and examine the overrated and underrated teams that have emerged as contenders or pretenders in the AFC ahead of Week 18 of the 2023 NFL season.

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Week 18's Most Overrated AFC Team

Miami Dolphins

• Record: 11-5
• Current Division Standing: First Place (AFC East)

The Dolphins have arguably been the most exciting team in all of football this year due to speedsters like Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De'Von Achane. Mike McDaniel's team is currently the No. 2 seed in the AFC, but their season-long resume is lacking.

In four games against the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, and Baltimore Ravens -- Miami has been outscored 156-70. To make matters worse, they are now without both of their Week 1 starting edge rushers. Bradley Chubb tore his ACL, while Jaelan Phillips suffered a torn Achilles.

Ultimately, Miami has not shown up in games against other Super Bowl contenders, and they are now at risk of losing the AFC East title in Week 18. If they can't snap out of it and defeat Buffalo, the Dolphins are likely to have to go on the road throughout the playoffs to reach Super Bowl LVIII. It's not looking good lately.

Ravens safety Geno Stone with his 7th interception of season. This one off Tua Tagovailoa, who has sailed a few passes high today: pic.twitter.com/DFehwQmbWb

— Cameron Wolfe (@CameronWolfe) December 31, 2023

Other AFC Pretenders

• Jacksonville Jaguars (9-7)
• Houston Texans (9-7)
• Indianapolis Colts (9-7)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)

The entire AFC South looks like clear pretenders. Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence have been ice-cold over the last half of the season, it's hard to believe in the Colts with Gardner Minshew under center, and the Texans' secondary and injury woes will keep them from being real contenders in January. Whoever wins the division is heading toward a matchup with Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns, which isn't a team anyone wants to face right now.

Mike Tomlin is once again exceeding expectations, and Mason Rudolph is playing the best football of his career, but the Steelers are still a long shot to make the playoffs, and it'd be shocking if they won a postseason game for the first time since 2016.

George Pickens made crazy catches with #ZeroRoomForError in back-to-back weeks. 🔥

(by @pepsi) pic.twitter.com/8KLGftrFS8

— NFL (@NFL) January 2, 2024

Week 18's Most Underrated AFC Team

Kansas City Chiefs

• Record: 10-6
• Current Division Standing: First Place (AFC West)

This is likely going to be called a hot take, but the Chiefs are somehow underrated heading into Week 18. Kansas City has clinched the No. 3 seed and will host a playoff game during Wild Card weekend, and although this looks like the worst team Patrick Mahomes has been on in the NFL, you can never count them out.

Despite the claims that the Kansas City offense is abysmal this season, Andy Reid's squad still ranks sixth in offensive DVOA. The Chiefs' stop unit is ranked 10th in defensive DVOA. With top ten units on both sides of the ball, Kansas City's struggles have been overstated.

Since 2018, Mahomes has won 11 playoff games. The next closest active player is Joe Burrow (five), who is also the only quarterback not named Tom Brady to defeat Mahomes in postseason action. If you have Mahomes, you have a shot to win when it matters most.

Rutgers backs having a day 🪓

This time, it’s Isiah Pacheco with the receiving touchdown.

📺: #CINvsKC on CBS

pic.twitter.com/a0OzT96mwf

— Rutgers Football (@RFootball) December 31, 2023

Other AFC Contenders

• Buffalo Bills (10-6)
• Cleveland Browns (11-5)

Buffalo has ripped off four straight wins coming off the Week 13 bye. Sean McDermott has the defense playing much better than earlier in the season, and Josh Allen has been incredible as a runner and goal line battering ram. The Bills have a chance to win the AFC East with a win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18, meaning one unfortunate team would have to travel to icy Orchard Park for a loud January postseason contest. This team is dangerous at the right time.

Cleveland continues to impress with veteran quarterback Joe Flacco. Since Flacco took over in Week 13, he is averaging 323.2 passing yards and 2.6 passing touchdowns per game. The Browns have scored 28.6 points per game during that five-week stretch, which is more points than the Detroit Lions (26.9) have averaged this season. With Cleveland's offense and defense playing lights out, Flacco could have another magical postseason run in him.

JOE FLACCO TO Jerome Ford 🤯

(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/wyJPgGLuLB

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) December 29, 2023

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