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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 29, 2023.
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Usually, Friday slates are small and boring, but tonight we get a healthy nine-game slate with many juicy matchups. What I like most about this slate is that it’s devoid of most of the major teams in the league. There’s no Edmonton, Vegas, Tampa Bay, or Boston, and Colorado is playing poorly so they don’t factor into today’s pool, which opens things up for other teams to take center stage. Toronto will most likely be the main attraction tonight, meaning many teams in good spots could come in with low ownership. I love that!
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, with four tournaments priced at $20 or less that have a top prize of over $1,000; highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, FanDuel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOR1 - Auston Matthews, Mitchell Marner, Matthew Knies, Morgan Rielly)
Toronto is facing the Blue Jackets in Columbus for the second time in three games. The last time these two teams faced off, Auston Matthews put up over 40 DraftKings points and Mitchell Marner scored over 17 DraftKings points. Matthew Knies didn’t do much of anything in that game, but he’s not expected to at his price point. He’s the cheap third member of a line you throw into your lineup that nobody else will have and you lap the field when he gets a random goal or assist.
The “real” third member of this stack is defenseman Morgan Rielly. He’s been playing very well lately, recording a goal or an assist in eight of his last 10 games. He’s also averaging over five SABS (shots and blocked shots) per game over his last 10 games, giving him a nice floor even if he doesn’t contribute to the goal-scoring. This is a very expensive stack to use, but adding in Knies helps lower the average cost per player and there are more than enough value stacks in good spots to make it work.
Dallas Stars (DAL1 - Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski, Miro Heiskanen)
Like the San Jose Sharks, the Chicago Blackhawks are a defense we are going to want to target every time they are on the slate. Chicago has allowed 3.67 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 road games, and even with positive defensive regression, they’d still be giving up nearly three goals. They also have allowed 14.43 high-danger chances per game on the road over their last 10 games, which is the second-highest number on the slate.
Dallas has been hot at home, scoring over three even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last 10 games. Data suggests that they are due for significant negative regression, but against a team like Chicago, I’d be more inclined to look at how they’re performing rather than how the data says they should be performing because the Blackhawks can’t stop anyone.
There isn’t a defensive pairing for Chicago that scares me, so I’m rolling with the Dallas line that performs best at home, and that’s their top line of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, and Joe Pavelski. I’ll add Miro Heiskanen on defense as he provides power play correlation and will help make your lineup a little more unique.
Detroit Red Wings (DET1 - Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane)
The Detroit Red Wings don’t have the best matchup on the slate (although it’s not awful), but they are one of the hottest lines in the league and I want to jump on them while they’re playing well. The trio of Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin, and Patrick Kane have combined for nine goals and 12 assists over their last five games, totally justifying their high price tags.
This is one of the most dynamic lines in all of hockey, with Dylan Larkin finally being surrounded by the talent that can help take his game to the next level. Over their last 10 home games, the Wings have scored an average of 3.02 even-strength goals, one of the higher numbers on the slate.
Nashville has benefited from hot goaltending from Juuse Saros, allowing only 2.42 even-strength goals on the road over their last 10 games. Advanced data shows that negative regression is coming (closer to three goals allowed). The Predators have allowed 13.33 high-danger chances per game on the road over their last 10 games, and that kind of pressure will eventually get to a goalie.
We are starting to see some cracks, as Saros has allowed three or more goals in three of his last four games after a streak that saw him allow two or fewer goals per game in six of eight games. With so many teams in good spots tonight, I think Detroit goes overlooked and I want some of that low ownership if they can get to Saros.
Others in consideration: FLA1, NYI1, DAL2
Patrick Kane is a point-per-game player with the Red Wings coming off hip resurfacing surgery, with SIX goals in 11 games so far.
He knew all along… pic.twitter.com/NNn3a3JsWc
— Emily Kaplan (@emilymkaplan) December 28, 2023
Top Value Stack of the Night
Columbus Blue Jackets (CBJ1 - Johnny Gaudreau, Justin Danforth, Adam Fantilli)
Few teams on today’s slate have a better matchup than the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Maple Leafs' defense has been awful this year, allowing well over three even-strength goals per 60 minutes on the road over their last 10 games. The reason for this lack of success by Toronto is twofold; they allow a slate-high 14.48 high-danger chances per game, and Ilya Samsonov is not very good at stopping pucks from hitting the back of the net. Samsonov is allowing nearly four goals per game this year, and his save percentage on unblocked shots is an abysmal 93.5%. Toronto allows 32.4 shots on goal per game, which is one of the higher numbers on the slate.
Meanwhile, Columbus is slowly starting to figure things out. Adam Fantilli has a goal or an assist in four of his last five games, Justin Danforth has scored a goal in back-to-back games, and Johnny Gaudreau is starting to show glimpses of his former self with a goal or assist in five of his last six games. None of the three have “gone off” during this span, but with each of them being priced at $4,300 or less, they don’t need to to hit value. They are a great complementary line to pair with a team like Dallas, Florida, or Detroit.
Others in consideration: DET3, WSH2, WSH4, COL2, ANH2, ARI2, ARI4
Top Goalies to Target
Joey Daccord (Seattle Kraken)
Few goalies are playing better than Joey Daccord right now. He’s scored 17 or more DraftKings points in five of his last six starts, allowing two or fewer goals in each of those five games. Going back even further, Daccord has allowed two or fewer goals in 11 of 13 starts; a positive statement on his performance and the strong defense in front of him. The Kraken defense is giving up less than nine high-danger chances per game over their last 10 home games, making life a little bit easier for Daccord. The Flyers take nearly 33 shots on goal per game, which is an elite volume for Daccord. His price point of $7,300 is low compared to how well he’s been playing, making him a strong option in both cash and GPP lineups.
Others in consideration (GPP): Alex Lyon, Sergei Bobrovsky, Juuse Saros, Petr Mrazek, Carter Hart
Others in consideration (Cash): Ilya Sorokin, Connor Ingram
