PGA Betting Strategy and Analysis: Ties Paid In Full vs. Dead Heat Rules, Odds Drift, Opening and Closing Numbers

Free PGA betting strategy and analysis. The Model Maniac determines whether betting "ties paid in full" or taking on the "dead heat rules with better odds" is the most profitable approach in golf betting. He also shares his thoughts on when to place your bets during the week.

To bet "ties paid in full" or "grab better odds and risk dead heat rules"? That is a question I have often asked myself and I am sure you have too. So, I decided to dive into the numbers that are often the source of immense frustration when a golfer bogeys his final hole to fall into a tie for 18th with 5 other golfers, drastically impacting your results for the week even though they still finished inside the top 20. The research is focusing specifically on the top-20 market (T20) and the respective results from DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM which are three of the most accessible sportsbooks in the US.

I will also address which sportsbook has the largest drift in opening odds to closing odds and when would be the best time of the week to bet at a specific book? Some books open with some really juicy odds, while others tend to open with really conservative numbers that don't move much over the course of a week. I grabbed my Model Maniac oxygen tank and dove even deeper into which odds ranges tend to drift favorably and which odds ranges are steamed the most throughout the week.

But wait, there is more! I have also included the top 20 best and worst golfers to bet on in 2023 in outright, top 5, top 10, and top 20 markets. I also then added these markets together to determine who the 20 most/least profitable golfers were overall across all markets. If you are looking to get your hands on all this data, it will be shared in the RotoBaller PGA discord that premium subscribers of any package have access to >HERE<. If you want to help me help you help me, use code: "MANIAC" for 10% off weekly and annual packages.

Sportsbook Dead Heat Rules

A Quick Overview

If you are new to golf betting and just getting your fingertips wet, when a golfer finishes T19 he technically finished inside the top-20 but depending on the event, a T19 could be considered as a T23 if 5 other guys end on the same score. In golf betting this is known as a "dead heat" and the three different sportsbooks we have mentioned, pay out different amounts in this particular scenario.

BetMGM

BetMGM is one of the few sportsbooks that placement bets have (All ties paid out in full). As you can see in the below example, Davis Thompson finished T15 with 7 other golfers making that a total of 22 golfers who finished inside the top-20. BetMGM paid the bet out in full despite the dead heat finishing position scenario.

DraftKings

DraftKings Sportsbook has dead heat rules but will always return a profit on a bet placed with them. To summarize the below screenshot, they will adjust the odds of the bet based off the number of golfers that ended in a tie, never touching your initial investment (aka stake). Your $50 wager will always be returned in addition to the payout that is subject to dead heat reduction. This seems obvious, but let's take a look at FanDuel's dead heat rules to try emphasize why I bolded "in addition".

FanDuel

Grab the puke bucket, because this is going to get gross. FanDuel's dead heat rules reduce your initial investment while keeping the odds the same. You did the hard work and got your guy inside the top-20, yet you still lost $40 because the initial investment is whacked instead of the payout. Let's do the math based off the below screenshot:

• No dead heat scenario: $100 @ +150 = $100 (initial investment) + $50 (payout) = $150
• Dead heat scenario where 5 guys tie for T19: $100 @ +150 = $100 * 2 / 5 = $40 (initial investment) + $20 (payout) = $60

In the T20 market a chop of odds took place in 71% of the events played. The Chop multiplier is how badly the dead heat would affect your bet, $100 turning in $11 twice (yikes) while $100 turned into $86 in the most friendly chop of the season at the Valero Texas Open.

What Are The Odds?

The below screenshot represents the average opening and closing odds for each tournament across the three sports books. The average includes every bet the sportsbook offered that week. Notice how much green is in the DraftKings columns, with green reflecting the best or longer odds which require less investment for the same $100 payout per bet.

If we include only winning bets for each event, this is how the average odds for each week would look. We are obviously never going to win every single bet we place, but this filter removes the noise that extremely long odds can create in the sample size above. Hypothetically, if DraftKings has the best average odds for all bets, but the majority of those better odds are on long shot golfers who likely won't cash that bet anyway, making that value mostly meaningless. These are the average odds for all winning bets, which would fall in a range that we would typically find ourselves betting on the regular.

Notice how much more competitive the three books are now that we remove some outliers from the equation? Michael Block closed at 130-1 to finish top-20 at the PGA Championship, skewing that total for DK's closing odds a little, but DraftKings is still looking like they provided the best odds of the three books for the majority of the year. Now that we have a feel for the odds associated with each book, let's get the answer to which book provided the best return on investment given their respective odds and dead heat house rules.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Ties Paid In Full or Better Odds?

Now that we know how each of the three books handle their bets that are subject to dead heat rules, lets figure out which book had the highest Return On Investment % (ROI%) over the course of the season (ROI% = Payout / Investment). I took each golfer's odds and calculated what amount was needed to be invested to return $100 for *most events that every golfer played on the PGA Tour. We are going to be using the closing odds for each book, as most people who bet on golf usually only get to this market on Wednesday after they have conducted their research and digested their favorite content.

If you placed a bet on every golfer to return $100 throughout the year, your average ROI% would be:

Based off these numbers, you likely want to use BetMGM as your primary book and punt FanDuel into the sun, right? But this includes every single bet, including guys way down the odds board you may never think of betting on. Still punt FD out the atmosphere, but let's take a closer look at what happens to the numbers if we filter on just winning bets.

The ROI% on winning bets is roughly 10% more if you bet through DraftKings last year, having the best ROI% in 21 of 38 events, with 6 of those events seeing an average of 42%+ more return on your wagers. When it comes to bets that win, DraftKings is going to frustrate you a little when your returns get chopped, but remember that over the course of last season you would have averaged 10% more profit even taking a few dead-heat whacks. FanDuel 12% worse than DK is an obvious sign to limit wagering on placements at that book if you can find similar numbers elsewhere.

Now, this doesn't mean that you should strictly bet at DK instead of BetMGM. Maybe there is an edge to be had depending on the risk associated with the bets you place? I massaged the data for all winning bets to find the shortest odds between the three books, for every winning bet on the season to try determine if there is a band or range of odds that favors ties paid in full vs better odds. And... guess what?

There is! The DK - MGM column is subtracting MGM's ROI% from DK's and if it is a positive number (green), DK would be the better option, with negative (yellow) suggesting MGM was more profitable. The ROI% for every range of bets that are shorter than +200 is greater if you bet on DraftKings. But once you start placing bets on golfers who have only have a 33% chance implied probability to finish inside the top 20, these golfers have longer odds, naturally they are less likely to contend for a win and more likely to find themself around the dead heat part of the leaderboard, where ties for T17 can involve more than golfer 17, 18, 19 and 20.

The 2.8% edge DK has in the +100 range is rather small, so either DK or MGM would suffice as a solid option. Anything -200 or shorter, I guess if you find a much better number on FanDuel you could try your luck with their horrific dead heat rules, but notice where bet volume is high and odds become closer to 50/50 (-200 to +200), FanDuel really loses ground to DK in a range where dead heat rules impact bets more than any other.

Below is the % of bets in each band that were subject to dead heat for DraftKings. The 8% dead heat rate for bets +100 to +199 is easily the highest of all the ranges and backs up the logic that the golfers in this range fall inside the top 20 48% of the time, but only cash bets without dead heats 40% of the time.

If DraftKings paid out ties in full last year, winning bets would have returned 168% instead of the 149%, which is 13% ((168%-149%)/149%) more ROI. If you find yourself in a situation where DK odds are slightly better than MGM, in the plus money (+100>) market, I am personally going to start applying a 15% threshold to the DK number to determine which book to go with. For example:

1. +120 DK and +100 BetMGM would meet this threshold as ((120-100)/100) = 20%
2. +335 DK and +300 BetMGM ((335-300)/100) = 12%. We would need +345 from DK to lean that way ... (+300 @ BetMGM) x 1.15 = +345

As a general rule of thumb:

• Place bets with negative odds at DK (or books with similar dead heat rules)
• Place bets between +100 and +199 at either DK or BetMGM as that 2.8% is that big of a deal
• Place bets +200> with ties paid in full
• If you have better odds than ties paid in full, use the 15% threshold above to pick an option

Odds Drifting

The three different sportsbooks we have analyzed so far once again present their own DNA on the open market in regard to how their odds drift from releasing the opening odds to midnight on Wednesday before the tournament begins. If I were to describe them as family members showing up to a thanksgiving or Xmas dinner party...

• DraftKings is your ex-army father in-law who shows up first and on time, greets you with a firm handshake but loosens up as he sips on his scotch and throws you a few appetizing long shots.
• FanDuel is that unreliable cousin that either shows up late or not at all. But, when he does show up, he usually has plus money gifts for everybody and then realizes how much he spent on it all and tries to weasel his way out of it all.
• BetMGM is the wiley ol grandpa that seems to just remain stuck in his ways, never giving an inch, but if an opportunity presents itself will nickle and dime you as the dinner unfolds.

Top 20 Most/Least Profitable Golfers In 2023

I will leave you with a twitter thread that breaks down outright, top 5, top 10, top 20 and the overall most profitable and costly golfers in 2023. I hope you enjoyed getting a little nerdy about the nuances of golf betting and how they can save you money going forward. If you really liked this article and want access to all the data behind these screenshots, I will be dropping a google doc in the discord for premium subscribers, >HERE<. Don't forget code: "MANIAC" gets you 10% off and also helps me out a great deal!

Thanks for all your support in 2023 and let us crush it in 2024!!!

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If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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