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Welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for the Week 16 Sunday Main Slate.
Last week’s picks finished 3-4, bringing us to 7-7 since taking over this column in Week 14. Coming into Week 16, our prop picks are sitting at 85-66 across all slates. We’ll look to build on that with our top prop picks for Sunday’s games.
Sleeper offers some of the best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games in the industry. Sleeper DFS works just like regular player prop betting -- there are no large-field tournaments to get lost in. You're not playing against other people; you're just playing against the projections. Here are a few of our favorite prop picks for the Sunday main slate on Sleeper DFS.
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Week 16 Sleeper DFS Prop Picks: Sunday Main Slate
David Montgomery OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards
Montgomery has a great opportunity to hit the over on an unusually low rushing prop this week. The Lions’ leading rusher has topped 55 rushing yards in 10 of his 11 games this season, the lone miss coming in an injury-shortened six-carry game against the Buccaneers back in Week 5.
His rushing matchup with the Vikings this week is a lucrative one, according to DVOA -- combining the Lions' rush offense vs. the Vikings’ rush defense by DVOA, Detroit’s running backs have the fifth-best matchup of the week.
The Lions are favored by three points in a game with the second-highest point total of the week (47.5, according to DraftKings Sportsbook).
Kalif Raymond OVER 10.5 Receiving Yards
Raymond’s receiving prop is criminally low this week. He has reached 11 or more receiving yards in 11 of 14 games this season (79%), including two straight and three of his last four. Raymond is averaging 2.1 catches and 28.5 receiving yards per game in 2023.
He has a game against the Vikings in Week 16, who have given up the ninth-most PPR points to fantasy receivers this year. Minnesota plays predominantly zone coverage (81.1%, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL). That bodes well for Raymond, who commands a 22.4% target share against zone coverage, second-best on the Lions beyond Amon-Ra St. Brown.
PFF projects a 71% likelihood of Raymond’s receiving prop hitting this week. Expect numbers around his season average on Sunday.
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Rico Dowdle OVER 3.5 Receiving Yards
Dowdle’s receiving prop is showing considerable value this week. The third-year back has solidified his position as the RB2 in the Cowboys' offense over the second half of this season, averaging 25% of offensive snaps over his past six games. He has finished with six or more receiving yards in four straight games and has a catch in every game since Week 9.
PFF shows a 64.1% likelihood of this prop hitting. Rotoballer's Proptimizer tool agrees with this pick, giving it a whopping 35% edge with a Sharp App projected line of 9.4 receiving yards.
Other Recommendations:
- Baker Mayfield OVER 20.5 completions
- Nick Mullens UNDER 23.5 completions
- Drake London OVER 3.5 receptions
- Dustin Hopkins OVER 1.5 field goals made
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