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Dawn Tepper's NFL DFS sleepers for DraftKings and FanDuel for Week 16 (2023). Her value picks and lineup sleepers for building winning daily fantasy football lineups.
We're on to Week 16, RotoBallers, and we're here to guide you through the 16th week of the season and find sneaky sleeper values to help you take down your favorite contest. If you're playing cash games, you don't have to have the top QB or RB of the week. But in Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)? The best way to go is to focus on players with the highest potential upside for their DFS price. This article will run every week throughout the regular season.
It won't include the obvious choices but instead players who appear to be undervalued in current DFS formats. As the values currently sit, players will qualify as a value in DFS (based on DraftKings salaries) for this article if they are a quarterback in the 5k range, running backs who are 6k or less, wide receivers at 5.5k and under, and 4k or less for tight ends. When it comes to tournaments, stacking our quarterback with one of their pass catchers is a must.
It's crucial to prioritize players with higher guaranteed floors and consistency to increase our chances of winning cash games. No matter which game you choose, these picks will come in handy. So, without further ado, let's dive in!
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Nick Mullens, MIN vs. DET | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,000
Mullens has a talented trio of wide receivers, including Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson. He ran an efficient offense last week, completing over 78% of his passes for 9.2 yards per attempt. He also threw two interceptions and almost a third that could have resulted in a pick-six.
Over the last three games, Detroit and Minnesota have allowed almost the same amount of yards per game, with 216 and 214 yards per game, respectively. If Mullens can avoid making any mistakes, this has the potential to be a closely contested game, with both teams relying on their passing game to keep up with each other.
Taylor Heinicke, ATL vs. IND | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,500
Atlanta has switched back to Heinicke for the rest of the season after previously telling Desmond Ridder he would start. As a long-suffering Commanders fan, I was Team Heinicke while he was with Washington. If there was one thing Commander fans learned about Heinicke is that he is all heart and he'll do whatever he needs to do to win, within his skillset, of course.
At $4,800, I would play Heinicke on his own or with Bijan Robinson. I see a lot of dinking-and-dunking with a smattering of long passes for Heinicke this weekend.
Running Back NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16
Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. GB | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,400
Hubbard is Carolina's number one running back, and this week, he faces a Green Bay Packers defense that has struggled against the run. In their last three games, Green Bay has allowed one rushing touchdown and 152 rushing yards per game. On the road, they are 161 yards per game for the season.
The numbers point to Hubbard having a great game at home versus Green Bay's rushing defense. The eye test shows that Hubbard has taken advantage of new opportunities in Carolina and should continue to shine as this season wraps up.
Ty Chandler, MIN vs. DET | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,900
With Alexander Mattison still dealing with an ankle injury, Chandler could see another heavy workload this Sunday at home against the Lions. Detroit is only allowing 96 yards of rushing per game this season, but in the last three games, they have allowed 112.7.
In the Vikings' loss to Cincinnati last week, Chandler ran for 132 yards and a touchdown and could earn his second start after Alexander Mattison missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Some believe Chandler should be starting going forward, but for now, I'll look to this weekend and take a chance on Chandler at home.
Zach Charbonnet, SEA at TEN | DK: $5,000, FD: $5,700
Kenneth Walker III has not practiced this week and is obviously still dealing with a shoulder injury. The rookie Charbonnet hasn’t been as impressive as Walker this season but has still been productive. In his last five games, he has rushed for an average of 42.8 yards, and has scored a touchdown.
The Titans have allowed 120.3 yards per game in their last three games, and if Charbonnet starts, he could hit that number this Sunday in Tennessee.
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Wide Receiver NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16
Drake London, ATL vs. IND | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,200
Atlanta has thrown for 248.4 passing yards per game this season when at home. Indy is allowing 225 yards per game passing this season, 207 on the road. Given that both teams play in a dome, I'm going to assume that their 207 yards on the road should translate to 225 yards per game allowed at home.
Now that London has Heinicke throwing the ball to him again, his chances of catching more balls should go up. In 13 games, London has caught 58 balls for 759 yards, averaging 13.3 yards per catch. If he was at that level with Desmond Ridder, it should be the same, if not better, with Heinicke under center.
Brandin Cooks, DAL at MIA | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,100
The Cowboys couldn't do much against the Bills last Sunday, and Cooks wasn't much help, with just two catches in each game and no touchdowns. Ever since the Cowboys win over the Giants, where Cooks had 9 receptions for 173 yards and a touchdown, he hasn't had more than four catches per game.
That has to change this week in Miami. For $4,900, Cooks is a player that can break a slate if he comes in at low ownership. If Miami is hanging all over CeeDee Lamb, Cooks could have a big game.
Jameson Williams, DET at MIN | DK: $3,700, FD: $5,200
Williams had four catches for 47 yards last week, but those numbers don't tell the full story. Only Amon-Ra St. Brown played more snaps than Williams among Detroit receivers in that game. He played a career-high 68% of offensive snaps last week, ran 26 routes, and drew the most targets from Goff, excluding Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Williams is another player that can break the slate at low ownership. At $3,700, you can afford to stack him with Goff and Sam La Porta and hope his target share continues to rise.
Tight End NFL DFS Value Plays - Week 16
Jonnu Smith, ATL vs. IND | DK: $2,900, FD: $5,100
Smith will be catching passes from Taylor Heinicke this week, and Smith could be the perfect security blanket for Heinicke as he makes yet another start for Atlanta this week. In Smith's last five games, he has nine catches for 99 yards. When Heinicke was at the helm in November, he hit Smith for a 60-yard touchdown, the tight end's longest play from scrimmage since the 2020 season.
I wouldn't be surprised to see another big connection between these two this weekend, and at $2,900 on DraftKings, I'll take that risk.
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