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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for the game on Thursday, December 21, 2023. Welcome to our brand new NFL DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the NFL DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks -- whether you think a player will score Over or Under the set lines, and choose your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (e.g., three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people -- you're just playing against the projections.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Thursday
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Chris Olave, 61.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave has surpassed this line in 54% of games this year, including three of his last four games. The 23-year-old is averaging 70.6 yards per game this year, and he has recorded at least 85 yards in seven games. New Orleans is currently five-and-a-half point underdogs today, and Olave has gained 57 or more yards in six of the seven losses this year. He's averaging 9.7 targets per game in losses and has covered the line in seven of the last 10 games as an underdog, with an average of 66.1 yards per game.
The Rams have run a cover-two defense at the third-fewest rate this season, and this particular coverage is where Olave performs the least effectively. He excels against man and cover-three defenses and is very proficient against cover-four. The Rams primarily run cover-three and cover-four but also mix in a significant amount of man and cover-six. Each of the last 10 top wide receivers covered their line against the Rams, and eight of the last 10 achieved at least 80 yards.
Alvin Kamara, 32.5 Receiving Yards (HIGHER)
New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara has exceeded this line in 82% of games this season, maintaining an average of 40.5 receiving yards per game. He has covered in eight of the last nine games, with an average of 44 yards per game in that stretch. The Saints are five-and-a-half point underdogs, and Kamara has covered in every loss this year, including three games with 50 or more receiving yards. The 28-year-old is averaging 9.3 targets per game in losses, and notably, he recorded 47 against the Rams a year ago.
While six of the last 10 running backs against the Rams have covered their lines, they have been tough against running backs this season. However, the Saints stand out as one of the few teams that extensively involve their running back in the passing game. Kamara's only two misses this year were in blowout wins. Derek Carr's passing attempts line is set at 33.5, and Kamara has covered in every game this year where the Saints threw the ball at least 30 times.
Puka Nacua, 8.5 Targets (LOWER)
Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua has fallen short of this line in 61% of games this year, with only one instance of surpassing it since October 22. Cooper Kupp appears to be regaining health and form, and Nacua has been under this line in seven out of the 10 games played alongside Kupp, including six of the last seven. The rookie standout has remained below this line in the last five wins with Kupp, despite averaging 8.3 targets per game over his last 10 games.
As the Rams face the Saints as five-and-a-half point favorites, their passing frequency drops to 52% in wins. New Orleans ranks eighth in defensive passing DVOA but 24th in defensive passing DVOA, suggesting that the Rams may lean towards running more with a lead. In a recent game, the Colts were the only team against the Saints to have two receivers with nine or more targets, and they threw the ball 41 times. Unless Nacua outpaces Kupp in targets or Matthew Stafford throws the ball 40-plus times, Nacua may likely finish with anywhere from six to eight targets.
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