RADIO
Hey, RotoBallers! I want to introduce myself formally, my name is Jon Irvin. Some of you may know me from the Discord channels and know I love breaking down DFS slates, especially in the MLB and NHL. I enjoy the deep dumpster diving so to speak, and look forward to helping find the low owned, overlooked, and unwanted plays. I predominantly play on DraftKings, so some of my picks are more tailored to their point/price system but a good spot is a good spot regardless of platform. We now have enough data to focus on positive and negative trends by implementing my trend chart where I look at both L25 and L10 to help see which teams are trending in which direction.
Today's DFS content will be for the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, December 18, 2023. We're starting the week off with an interesting five-game slate filled with a few spots that are fairly difficult to get a good read. Dylan Larkin may be back for Detroit, which could make things a bit clearer in terms of potential top stack.
After reading this, jump into the RotoBaller Discord NHL channel and chat it up with all the other great minds about today's slate. Don’t forget to check out our valuable NHL tools, including the new NHL DFS Heat Map.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 12/18/23
As stated earlier, I have begun to implement my personal trend chart. Below, you'll see stats that reflect the average of L25 and L10. This happens to weigh L10 heavier, which tightens our sample and shows both positive and negative trends. Looking at today's chart, we can see several teams seemingly underperforming as well as facing teams not allowing many scoring chances. Usually, higher implied Vegas totals lead us to better spots, which would have Detroit leading the way, but their offense hasn't been that fruitful of late. After Detroit, we have Winnipeg, who just lost Kyle Connor, so they aren't as high-flying either. As you can see, finding a main stack could be difficult, so let's find our value first and see where that road takes us.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Better put two pairs of gloves on when looking at goaltending today. This weekend was filled with goalies getting lit up as well as mid-game trips to the infirmary, I'm not sure how much hope I have for the options given to us tonight either. As always, and especially on DK, we are looking for cheap saves, ignoring the potential of giving up a few goals and concentrating on the chance of saving the most shots.
Jake Allen - DK $7.0K || FD $6.9K
Opponent - Winnipeg Jets
Ignoring his matchup against Tampa Bay, Jake Allen has hit 30 saves in eight of the last 10 games, four of those hitting the 35-save bonus on DK. With the opportunity of over 30 saves, Jake still has the potential to hit 2x value even if he gives up multiple goals. If Montreal decides to go with Sam Montembeault instead of Allen, even better!
Others to consider: Filip Gustavsson (DK $7.6K || FD $7.5K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Sam Bennett - DK $4.6K || FD $5.1K
Opponent - Calgary Flames
As long as Bennett is centering a line featuring Matt Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe and under 5K, he will remain a value staple. Sam still seems to be a bit rusty after his delayed start in terms of production. Metrics wise, he still holds numbers that will lead to positive regression, including 33.5SCF/60 and 13HDCF/60. He's being priced on past production, which is perfect because we look at prices in terms of projected production. Ride Bennett while you can, especially in a nice revenge spot for both him and Tkachuk.
Others to consider: Joe Veleno (DK $3.5K || FD $3.8K )
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Pittsburgh Penguins rotating carousel of value wingers
Rickard Rakell - DK $3.6K || FD $4.5K
Drew O'Connor - DK $3.5K || FD $3.5K
Valtteri Puustinen - DK $3.4K || FD $3.7K
It's been a tough task to figure out who will be skating up on PIT1 with Sid the Kid. Rakell has been with the team and seems to be nearing a return. Both O'Connor and Puustinen have filled in admirably and still hold value, especially if Puustinen stays on the PIT2 as well as the top PP unit.
Opponent - Minnesota Wild
Others to consider: Evan Rodrigues ( DK $4.5K || FD $5.8K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Will Borgen - DK $2.9K || FD $3.6K
Borgen has been hot as of late, hitting the block bonus last time out following back-to-back two-assist games. Will fills multiple stat categories, which is always key when we look for value blueliners.
Opponent - Calgary Flames
Others to consider: Johnathan Kovacevic (DK $2.7K || FD $3.8K)
JIrv’s Discount Stacks and Sample Lineups
With the potential Larkin return and the possibility of Veleno flanking him on DET1, we should have enough value to run FLA2 or PIT1. Don't be afraid to go off the beaten path and distinguish yourself from the masses, and as always, good luck RotoBallers!
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More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
