Playoff Bubble NFL Teams: Who Has The Inside Track On A Playoff Berth?

Mo takes a look at NFL teams currently in the playoff picture and assesses which ones have the best chances at making the playoffs based on their remaining schedules.

As Week 14 approaches, the AFC and NFC playoff races have gotten incredibly tight. There have been plenty of surprise teams that would have football fans all around scratching their heads if they saw the current playoff picture from today back in August.

In the AFC, we have teams like the Chargers, Bills, and Bengals all on the outside looking in. On top of that, we have teams like the Browns and the Colts who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Meanwhile, in the NFC, we have teams like the Packers and Rams who were thought of to be in “rebuilding” seasons currently sitting at .500 and looking to lay claim to a playoff berth. We also have the NFC South, where either the Atlanta Falcons, New Orleans Saints, or Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be hosting a playoff game in January.

There is madness across the board, and that’s why we love it. With only five weeks remaining of the regular season, we wanted to dive into the bubble teams we believe have the best chance at making the playoffs given their current situations.

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Houston Texans (7-5), #8 in AFC

Remaining Schedule:
Week 14 - @NYJ
Week 15 - @Tenneseee
Week 16 - vs. Cleveland
Week 17 - vs. Tennessee
Week 18 - @ Indianapolis

Despite how impressive rookie QB C.J. Stroud has looked and how good of a job HC DeMeco Ryans has done in his first year in Houston, the Texans are currently on the outside looking in of the stacked AFC playoff race.

It’s been their AFC South rival, the Indianapolis Colts, who are giving them the most trouble. They also sit at 7-5 and lead the season series between the two teams after Indy’s Week 2 win, which has Indy holding onto a Wild Card spot as it currently stands.

Houston checks all the boxes of what a playoff team looks like. They hold the league’s second-most prolific passing offense, averaging 275.2 yards per game through the air, and have the league’s 11th-best defense in terms of DVOA.

The rest of their schedule pans out nicely for them to look to clinch their playoff spot sooner rather than later. Their remaining opponents hold a .433 win percentage, which is the 26th-lowest out of 32 teams.

On top of that, three out of their five remaining games come against AFC South opponents where they can look to make up some ground that they lost in the division earlier this season.

The door has opened for the Texans to look to lay claim to the top spot in the AFC South, as the Jaguars just lost in Week 13 to the Cincinnati Bengals and may be without their quarterback Trevor Lawrence (ankle) for some time. The Texans and Colts are both one game back of their division’s one seed, with the Colts holding the tiebreaker between the two.

If the Texans can’t find their way to win the AFC South, they still look to be in a good position to grab a Wild Card spot. One matchup to look out for will be their Week 16 game against the Cleveland Browns, who hold the sixth seed in the AFC while also sitting at 7-5. A head-to-head win there would be a huge advantage as the Texans look to make a push.

Remaining Matchup(s) to Keep An Eye On: Week 16 vs. Cleveland, Week 18 @ Indianapolis.

Green Bay Packers (6-6), #7 in NFC

Remaining Schedule:
Week 14 - @NYG
Week 15 - vs. Tampa Bay
Week 16 - @Carolina
Week 17 - @ Minnesota
Week 18 - vs. Chicago

It’s hard not to be bullish on the Green Bay Packers right now after their impressive 27-19 Week 13 win against the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.

The Packers have now strung together three straight wins, winning four out of their last five. QB Jordan Love has taken massive leaps in this span, proving to the Lambeau faithful that he might be the franchise’s next legendary quarterback. Over this win streak, Love has completed passes at a 69% rate, averaging roughly 285 passing yards per game. On top of that, he’s thrown for a total of eight touchdowns and ZERO interceptions during this span.

The Packers' defense has been holding up their end of the bargain as well, allowing the eighth-fewest points per game this season at 20.2. Their weak link is their run defense, allowing the third-most rushing yards per game at 136.2.

Sitting firmly at .500, Green Bay holds the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL in terms of opponent win percentage. Green Bay’s rest-of-season opponents have a .333 win percentage, which is the lowest for all 32 teams.

While they appear to be primed to grab a playoff spot, their Week 17 matchup on the road against Minnesota may end up carrying a lot of weight. With the Detroit Lions likely holding onto the NFC North title, Green Bay will have to look to pick up some ground against the Vikings as Minnesota holds the tiebreaker between the two.

All that said, it looks like the Packers will be finding their way into playoff football this season.

Remaining Matchup(s) To Keep An Eye On: Week 17 @ Minnesota, Week 18 vs. Chicago.

Cleveland Browns (7-5), #6 in AFC

Remaining Schedule:
Week 14: vs Jacksonville
Week 15: vs Chicago
Week 16: @Houston
Week 17: vs NYJ
Week 18 @Cincinnati

The Cleveland Browns have had a roller coaster of a season, and find themselves amidst a two-game losing streak while looking to cling onto a playoff spot. With QB Deshaun Watson done for the year and rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson missing time with a concussion, the Browns have turned to free-agent signing QB Joe Flacco to help them in their late-season stretch.

Despite their revolving door of a quarterback room, the Browns have relied heavily on their defense and it’s worked out for them up to this point. The Browns have the league’s best passing defense, allowing a league-low 153.4 yards per game through the air.

As they gear up for the last few weeks of the season, they find themselves with a remaining schedule of opponents whose win percentage sits at .483. This is the 12th-easiest remaining schedule of 32 teams.

The Browns will only square off with one more AFC North opponent this season, Week 18 against the Cincinnati Bengals. They have split the series with both the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, and have a Week 7 win over the Indianapolis Colts, which may play a role in tiebreakers come January.

Their remaining opponent with the best record is the Jacksonville Jaguars, who they will see in Week 14. While Jacksonville is 8-4, there is a real chance that they will be without their star QB Trevor Lawrence (ankle), who was injured in the team’s Week 13 loss.

A decently favorable rest-of-season schedule and a few potential tiebreaker scenarios wins leave the Cleveland Browns with an inside track of joining this year’s AFC playoffs.

Remaining Matchup(s) to Keep An Eye On: Week 16 @ Houston, Week 18 @ Cincinnati.

Atlanta Falcons (6-6), #4 in NFC

Remaining Schedule:
Week 14 vs. Tampa Bay
Week 15 @Carolina
Week 16 vs. Indianapolis
Week 17 @Chicago
Week 18 @New Orleans

Despite being a nightmare for fantasy football managers, this Atlanta Falcons team currently sits at .500 and would be hosting a playoff game if the season were to end today.

On top of playing in the worst division in football this season, they find themselves having three out of their five remaining games being NFC South opponents, which will solidify how the division plays out. Atlanta’s rest-of-season opponents have a .367 win percentage, the second-lowest of any team’s schedule behind Green Bay.

There have been questions surrounding the quarterback position in Atlanta, as we have seen QB Desmond Ridder benched in place of QB Taylor Heinicke, and vice-versa. Despite their struggles at the position, HC Arthur Smith’s squad has relied on the run game and it has paid dividends.

The Falcons' rushing attack average 135.2 rushing yards per game, good for the sixth-highest mark in the league. RBs Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have led the way, as the tandem has run for over 1200 yards so far this season.

Despite the odds being in their favor, Atlanta is not a shoo-in for the playoffs right now. Their divisional opponents, the Saints and Buccaneers, sit right behind them at 5-7. All three of these teams will see each other at least one more time before the end of the season.

None of the aforementioned teams have made a great case as to how and why they will make the playoffs, but the Falcons do currently have the inside track to take that spot.

Remaining Matchup(s) to Keep An Eye On: All NFC South Games.

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