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Happy Monday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy NFL DFS prop picks for the game on Thursday, November 30, 2023. Welcome to our brand new NFL DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the NFL DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks -- whether you think a player will score Over or Under the set lines, and choose your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (e.g., three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win NFL DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people -- you're just playing against the projections.
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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Thursday
Be sure also to check out our brand new Props Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Zach Charbonnet, 13.0 Rushing Attempts (HIGHER)
Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet is in line to shoulder the bulk of the workload in Week 13, with Kenneth Walker doubtful due to an oblique injury. In the two games where Charbonnet had an extended workload, the rookie running back carried the ball at least 14 times, including 14 carries in the last game against San Francisco, where the Seahawks played mostly from behind.
In the last nine matchups, seven of the top rushers recorded at least 13 attempts against Dallas, with the only exceptions being Miles Sanders and Darrell Henderson, who each operated in a near split. Charbonnet is expected to command a 65-70% rush share in this game. The Seahawks have run the ball 20 or more times in all but three games this year, and two of those exceptions were complete blowouts.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 4.0 Receptions (LOWER)
Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has recorded four or fewer receptions in nine out of 11 games, with less than four receptions in six of those 11 games. Notably, Dallas ranks second in the league for allowing the fewest receptions to receivers this season, and they have permitted only two receivers to surpass this threshold in the same game once all season.
The rookie receiver is averaging just 5.2 targets per game this year and has never received more than seven targets in a single game. In both games where he achieved more than four receptions, he needed to catch over 80% of his targets to reach this line. The Cowboys boast a formidable defense against receivers, limiting them to a mere 55% conversion rate on targets. Smith-Njigba is likely to face the challenge of outperforming teammates DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to surpass his reception line in this matchup.
Tony Pollard, 14.5 Rushing Attempts (HIGHER)
Dallas Cowboys running back Tony Pollard has surpassed this particular line in only 36% of games this year. However, he is coming off his highest rushing share of the season in Week 12, where, with Rico Dowdle nursing an ankle injury, Pollard enjoyed a season-best 72% rush share. This marked just the second time all season that he had a rush share of 70% or higher in a game.
Although Dowdle was limited in practice throughout the week, he is expected to be available for the upcoming game. Notably, in both wins by 20 or fewer points, Pollard covered this line despite receiving less than 60% of the carries in both instances. The Seahawks currently rank 20th in rushing attempts against this year, allowing opposing teams to run the ball 27.7 times per game. Given that Dallas is favored by seven points, Pollard is anticipated to see ample rushing opportunities, provided the game remains within reasonable margins.
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