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Ellis's NFL touchdown predictions for Week 13 (2023) - his fantasy football TD predictions for five players. “Pie Shop” is an Australian term for scoring a try in rugby, which Ellis applies for touchdowns.
The Pie Shop is back in business after our best week yet. Here we predict players to score a touchdown this week. Last week, we selected five players and finished 4-1.
For those of you who are new, welcome to the Pie Shop. I came across the term “Pie Shop” while following Rugby in Australia. They used this iconic term to determine whether or not they believed a player would score a Try (or in this case, touchdown). If a player was predicted to score, the Pie Shop was declared “open” for that week.
For the third week, we will be cutting this down to five picks and disregarding the name value. These are players who I believe have the best chances of scoring this week. My name is Ellis Johnson and this is your Week 13 Pie Shop.
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Picks (15-10)
Tyreek Hill (WR, MIA)
Dolphins @ Commanders, Sunday 11:00 AM MST
Hill continues to light up the league every week. Although Sauce Gardner had his number a few times last week, he still had nine receptions for over 100 yards and a score.
This week, he faces a Commanders secondary that gets torched weekly by opposing wideouts. The Commanders do not have a corner that can contain Hill and Tua Tagovailoa will make sure he gets the ball on time and in the right spot. Considering the Commanders are at their best stopping running backs and the Dolphins always manage to score, it’s the perfect recipe for Hill to have a day.
Sam LaPorta (TE, DET)
Lions @ Saints, 11:00 AM MST
Last week, my one TE call was the one that was missed. This week, I love LaPorta to find the end zone for the second week in a row. The Lions do not match up well against the Saints, as New Orleans prides themselves on stopping the run.
Unfortunately for the Saints, that opens them up to being torched in the air. For example, they are allowing the second-most touchdowns to the TE position per game. There aren’t many TEs on a great offense that are getting LaPorta's usage. I like this one a lot as the rookie has been on fire this season.
Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL)
Falcons @ Jets, Sunday 11:00 AM MST
What a post-bye week performance from the star running back. Bijan was incredible last week and has now received 22 or more opportunities in two weeks straight. The Falcons have a very tough matchup at MetLife this week. The Jets' defense is no joke and should torment Desmond Ridder all day long. As a result, this team will need to get their ground game working in order to give Ridder time to do his usual and miss-open receivers.
The weakest part of this Jets' defense (although still solid) is against opposing RBs. We just saw Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. gash them for 150 rushing yards and two scores. As a result, if Bijan gets 22 opportunities for the third straight week, he should find pay dirt.
Deebo Samuel (WR, SF)
49ers @ Eagles, Sunday 2:25 PM MST
I remember when the schedule was released and everyone had this game circled on their calendar. These teams do NOT like each other and have both been atop of their conference this year. This is a deeper call but I like Samuel finding the end zone.
It’s these matchups that Kyle Shanahan loves to get creative and get his playmakers the ball. There aren’t many players who are as dynamic with the ball in their hands as Deebo. He is nearly impossible to scheme against and can be used everywhere.
Additionally, he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 3, so he is more than due to find pay dirt. The Eagles have allowed the most touchdowns per game to both the WR and TE positions. Considering Deebo is built like a tight end and can move like a receiver, he should be heavily involved in this one.
Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN)
Bengals @ Jaguars, Monday 6:15 PM MST
Maybe it’s because we are coming off our best Pie Shop week so far, but I feel like taking some shots in this one. Obviously, Ja'Marr Chase is not a name that will surprise you on this list; however, how many points can this Bengals team score with Jake Browning under center?
No disrespect to Browning (I think he was relatively impressive last week); however, you won’t win scoring 10 points. This Jaguars team wants you to pass on them and focus on their run defense. With Tee Higgins back in the lineup (potentially), this defense will have a tall order to stop this air attack, even with Browning under center.
Ja'Marr Chase will be the focal point of this team for the rest of the season, especially if the ground game doesn’t succeed. We saw in the game against Baltimore that Browning and Chase have some timing and chemistry, which will be needed this Monday.
Thank you for reading my work. Check out my four favorite player prop selections later this week!
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