WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Week 12 (2023)

Happy Thanksgiving! Welcome to Week 12 of the WR/CB Matchups article. For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly series looking at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.

During the past three seasons, I have tweaked my process to make the chart more user-friendly and predictive, but NFL teams are moving receivers around more than ever in today's game. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week.

As a reminder, the process for assigning points to a specific matchup has to do with how the entire defense defends the player who lines up at one of the three spots (LWR, RWR, slot) the most. For example, in Week 1 last year, Jahan Dotson scored a TD from the LWR spot and the right slot, but all of his points were assigned to Shaquill Griffin because Griffin played primarily LCB and Dotson was the Washington receiver with the most snaps at RWR.

The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.

The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on one side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.

The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green, and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up on average this year. Keep in mind that team scheme is a huge factor in points assigned to specific players. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury.

Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 12

Click the image for a full-screen view

WR/CB Matchups to Target

Amon-Ra St. Brown has one of the best matchups in the league for slot receivers against the Packers. He might be eating Turkey Legs on Thursday afternoon.

CeeDee Lamb has taken a leap into elite fantasy producer territory and this week gets an incredible matchup against the Commanders, who have been absolutely torched by opposing WR groups all year. However, they funnel production to outside WRs more than any team in the league, and Lamb is listed as the primary slot on the chart. Here's how the Cowboys deploy their receivers: Lamb, Brandin Cooks, and Jalen Tolbert all play some slot, while Michael Gallup typically only plays outside. The point is -- all Cowboys WRs are solid plays and although Lamb is listed as the primary slot on the chart, he will get plenty of snaps outside. It's an eruption spot.

The Buccaneers have also been dreadful against opposing WR groups this year, giving up ceiling games multiple times thus far. With both Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis banged up, it's a great spot for Michael Pittman Jr. and a solid spot for Josh Downs.

Ja'Marr Chase will be dealing with a backup QB, but the Steelers have given up a ton of production to opposing WR1s. Keep in mind that Joey Porter Jr. wasn't playing as much when they were torched badly earlier this season.

Keep an eye on Cooper Kupp's status this week. If he can't go, Puka Nacua becomes a smash play and Tutu Atwell becomes viable. If Kupp does play, both he and Nacua still have good matchups.

Tank Dell has emerged as the top target for C.J. Stroud, but based on alignment data, the easiest matchup for a Texans receiver this week goes to Nico Collins. Both Dell and Collins are solid plays.

The Eagles just gave up a career game to Justin Watson of all people, so the Bills WR group is a good bet for solid production. Bump Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Khalil Shakir based on matchup data.

Adam Thielen is a target hog in a bad offense, but this week gets the most favorable slot matchup in the league against the Titans. He could have a huge day on huge volume.

Zay Flowers hasn't drawn a plus matchup in several weeks, but without Mark Andrews, he could be in for a huge day against the Chargers.

WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade

The Bears have actually been decent against outside WRs this year, so it's not a great spot for Jordan Addison, assuming Justin Jefferson doesn't play.

Terry McLaurin was limited by Deonte Banks last week, and this week it won't be easy against a Dallas pass D that has been stout against opposing WR groups all year. The total in that game is a healthy 48.5, so there's no reason to sit him unless you have much better options.

Amari Cooper is dealing with a backup QB and will also have a tough matchup this week. Patrick Surtain II is arguably the best corner in football.

Calvin Ridley blew up against the Titans' porous secondary last week, but this week it won't be as easy against Houston. Steven Nelson remains one of the most underrated players in the NFL.

Jaylen Waddle has been disappointing from a production standpoint this season, and this week will have to deal with a Jets CB trio that has been awesome for two years. Waddle still has a ceiling, but this matchup is tough.

The Packers have been gashed by slots all year, but have actually been stingy against outside WRs. It's not a good spot for fringe plays like Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams.

Courtland Sutton has developed into a TD-scoring machine under Sean Payton, but his streak may come to an end against Denzel Ward and the Browns. Cleveland's defense is ferocious. It's also a matchup downgrade for Jerry Jeudy.

Thanks for reading all season and good luck this week.

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