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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 12 of the 2023 season? Andrew Ball identifies potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid for this upcoming week.
A trio of Thursday games. The first-ever Black Friday game. The regularly scheduled Sunday slate. And for dessert, Monday Night Football. A lot of football (and food) is on tap, and hopefully, the only thing busting is your belt buckle.
But that's the nature of the game. Not everybody will put up the stat line you want, or even realistically expect, from them.
As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 12, potential fantasy landmines may need to find a spot on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 12 of the NFL season.
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Tua Tagovailoa at New York Jets (Friday)
Black Friday could be a preview of what's to come for Tua Tagovailoa. Up until now, the ex-Crimson Tide quarterback has faced one defense in the top five for passing yards surrendered (Kansas City). He struggled in that game in Frankfurt, Germany. The Dolphins' tilt against the Jets on Friday will be the second.
In the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 15-17), Tagovailoa faces the Jets again, plus two more teams in the top five (Baltimore and Dallas). If he wants to quiet the narrative that Miami only beats up on inferior opponents, the time to do so is now.
There are a few barriers that may prevent him from reaching that goal. As stated, the Jets have a phenomenal pass defense. Tagovailoa has also performed noticeably better in the confines of Hard Rock Stadium.
| Stat | Home (5 games) | Away (5 games) |
| Yards (Avg.) | 305.6 | 281.2 |
| Completion Percentage | 72.51% | 67.05% |
| Touchdowns | 14 | 7 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 4 |
Third, the Jets are starting Tim Boyle at quarterback this week. While the career backup may gift Tagovailoa and the Miami offense several short fields, the score could also get out of hand quickly. Miami is a 10-point road favorite in this contest. See how the Miami offense does with Tagovailoa on your bench, and put him back in your starting lineup against Washington, one of the worst pass defenses in the league, next week.
James Cook at Philadelphia
James Cook bailed out fantasy managers late against the Broncos when the Bills' coaching staff realized that they could run the ball effectively against a porous Denver defense. The following week, against the Jets, Cook tied his season-high with 17 carries as the Bills built up a massive lead and never looked back. Neither of those situations will happen when Buffalo heads to Philadelphia.
The Eagles are polar opposites of the Broncos in terms of stopping the run. Philly only allows 76.5 yards per game on the ground and gives up the fewest fantasy points to the position. They are also the best team in football and should be playing with a lead at home. While Cook profiles as a pass-catching running back, the Bills opt to use Latavius Murray in certain schemes for pass protection, and even Ty Johnson is getting involved in the now. Leonard Fournette is still looming on the practice squad, waiting for his time.
With 60% of the snaps or fewer for the brother of Dalvin, expectations are low that he'll be productive against this defense.
Javonte Williams vs. Cleveland
The downside to Javonte Williams was on full display against the Minnesota Vikings. Without a touchdown to his name, the third-year professional saw just 13 touches and turned those into 53 yards. His snap percentage only slightly dropped from the week before, when he totaled 25 touches. The difference in this game from the two prior is that Denver wasn't able to control the clock like they did against Buffalo and Kansas City.
It's difficult to predict how time of possession will play out in future matchups but Cleveland's style of offense plays well for ball control. In fact, when excluding overtime periods, the Browns possess the ball, on average, more than any team in the NFL. Denver still owns the league's worst run defense, meaning Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, and even Pierre Strong Jr. can continue to chip away, pick up first downs, and keep that clock running. That will keep Williams on the sidelines.
Williams hasn't run for a touchdown all season. His two scores (both in the last two games) have come through the air. The Browns are in the top ten in the fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and have surrendered just one receiving touchdown to the position.
Alexander Mattison vs. Chicago
The Chicago Bears run defense has moved up, and up, and up, and up, and up, and up. Believe it or not, they now allow the second-fewest rushing yards per game, behind only Philadelphia.
Alexander Mattison and the Minnesota Vikings will host the Bears on Monday Night Football. Despite fumbling during a key drive and Ty Chandler running more efficiently than him, Mattison actually saw a bigger snap percentage against Denver than he did a week prior. Chandler still has a lot of work to do in pass protection before his playing time can take a bigger jump. It is a timeshare, but Mattison's role is seemingly here to stay.
But his role is still not leading to touchdowns. All three of his scores this season have been of the receiving variation and come once about every 4-5 weeks. It's not because the Vikings have a different running back that they prefer to use on the goal line. Mattison has the seventh-most carries across the league from inside the five-yard line this season. On those nine carries, he's tallied negative seven yards. Within the red zone, those totals move to 22 carries for 21 yards.
| Metric | Carries | Yards |
| Inside the 20 | 22 | 21 |
| Inside the 10 | 11 | -5 |
| Inside the 5 | 9 | -7 |
The Bears do allow many running backs to rack up fantasy points through the air. They surrender the second-most catches to the position, and 11 total touchdowns. In Week 6 against Chicago, Mattison earned seven targets and four receptions. If Mattison is going to be productive for fantasy managers, it will need to be through the passing game. In non-PPR formats, Mattison can be benched.
Garrett Wilson vs. Miami
Jets fans have been clamoring for a change at the quarterback position. Be careful what you wish for. I don't think Tim Boyle was exactly what they had in mind.
A veteran free agent (say, Cam Newton, maybe?) would have been a preferred choice. Instead, fans get to suffer through watching a man who threw more interceptions than touchdowns (by a wide margin) in college.
Sure, he knows the offensive system because of his time spent in two cities with Nathaniel Hackett, and the system is designed to get the football to their playmakers, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. A large part of why Zach Wilson was benched was due to his inability to connect with Wilson.
Upon entering the game in the second half against Buffalo, Boyle completed half of his 14 attempts for just 33 yards and turned the ball over. It's not going to be an upgrade. Sorry, Jets fans.
Jaylen Waddle at New York Jets (Friday)
If we get excited about quarterback-wide receiver stacks, we should get nervous about those same stacks. Tagovailoa is listed as a bust this week and so is his WR2 Jaylen Waddle.
This call falls into the risky category. It only takes one touch for any receiver or running back on this offense to give fantasy managers what they need. As evidenced by Khalil Shakir, the Jets' secondary can be beaten on a long touchdown catch. Although, that was only the second touchdown allowed to a wide receiver all season. The first was in Week 1 by another Buffalo Bill, Stefon Diggs.
Performance issues aside (Waddle has just two games with over 15 PPR points), the Jets rank at the top of every major pass defense metric. He'll see a lot of Sauce Gardner, and when Gardner is on the other side of the field, Waddle will match up against another great cornerback in D.J. Reed.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Carolina
It's tough to see one of this era's best wide receivers become a boom-or-bust option on a floundering offense, but here we are with DeAndre Hopkins.
Hopkins was able to secure four of his five targets for 59 yards and a touchdown. So, he didn't burn fantasy managers who had the veteran in starting lineups. But he gathered all of that production on just 15 routes. That stat line is not sustainable on those few routes. In fact, the Titans had to get tricky to get Hopkins open for that score.
Head Coach Mike Vrabel will concoct his game plan around Derrick Henry. Outside of his debut and a few nice throws against Pittsburgh, Will Levis' numbers match those of a backup quarterback. Carolina's defense is very soft against the run. In turn, they're strong against the pass, allowing the seventh-fewest yards to receivers. If the Titans plan on winning another game this season, taking the ball out of the quarterback's hands and sticking it to one of the best players in franchise history will be the recipe.
With zero teams on bye this week, there's more of a luxury to stick Hopkins on your bench, so he doesn't put up a dud in your lineup.
Davante Adams vs. Kansas City
L'Jarius Sneed is shutting down opposing top wideouts and he's starting to be mentioned among the league's elite cornerbacks, especially after holding A.J. Brown to one catch for eight yards on Monday Night Football. In a recent five-game stretch, Sneed has only allowed one opponent to top 60 receiving yards. That was guaranteed All-Pro Tyreek Hill. Still, Hill, Keenan Allen, Courtland Sutton (x2), and the aforementioned Brown were all kept below their averages.
With O'Connell under center, he and the Raiders coaching staff have made a renewed effort to pepper Davante Adams with targets. Thirteen passes have been sent in his direction in each of the last two games. In turn, he's scored at least 14 PPR points twice. The rookie quarterback is figuring out that targeting a star is a smart strategy.
The Raiders' defense struggles to stop the run (132.3 yards per game). As crazy as it sounds with Patrick Mahomes leading the charge, Kansas City's most consistent point of attack on offense this season has been their running game. Isiah Pacheco was able to find running room against Philadelphia, something no other running back has been able to do this season. The Chiefs should be able to control the clock, limiting opportunities for Adams.
Currently, Adams is catching just 57% of his targets and he's been right at 50% in the last two games. If his targets are sliced because Las Vegas can't take Kansas City off of the field, and Sneed is hampering Adams' ability to catch the football, the former All-Pro could be in for a rough afternoon.
Amari Cooper at Denver
Just like the 1997 & 1998 Utah Jazz, Amari Cooper is taking back-to-back L's.
Listed in this column last week due to a backup quarterback and the emergence of a young, shutdown cornerback (Joey Porter Jr.), Cooper was held to four catches for 34 yards. He was outperformed by both Elijah Moore and David Njoku.
Nothing has changed during the week. Dorian Thompson-Robinson is still getting the starting nod for the Cleveland Browns (and why wouldn't he after leading the team to a victory?). Plus, he's matched up against another young, shutdown corner in Patrick Surtain II. Since the Broncos turned their defense around, here's how every opponent's top wide receiver has performed against Surtain and the Denver secondary.
| Wide Receiver | Stats |
| Jordan Addison (Week 11) | 3 catches, 44 yards |
| Stefon Diggs (Week 10) | 3 catches, 34 yards |
| Rashee Rice (Week 8) | 4 catches, 56 yards |
| Christian Watson (Week 7) | 3 catches, 27 yards |
| Rashee Rice (Week 6) | 4 catches, 72 yards |
| Garrett Wilson (Week 5) | 3 catches, 54 yards |
Looks pretty similar to the production Cooper put up against Pittsburgh, doesn't it? Expect a similar output for the ninth-year wideout against Denver.
Pat Freiermuth at Cincinnati
Big names, especially at the tight end position, will attract interest on the waiver wire. Managers who just lost Mark Andrews, or have been streaming the position since Darren Waller hit injured reserve, are actively looking for another option. Pat Freiermuth, in theory, fits the bill. He was a starting tight end for fantasy football in 2022 and is a red zone threat.
Freiermuth was on the waiver wire because of a hamstring injury that forced him on the IR list. But don't forget about what he did prior to his stint on the sidelines. In his first four games, Freiermuth racked up a grand total of 53 yards. 41 of those came in Week 3 against Las Vegas. He was held to seven yards or less in the three other contests.
And in his grand return to the field in Week 11, he was, once again, held to seven yards. Kenny Pickett is unable to support two receivers, let alone a third. Find another option at tight end for Week 12.
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