RADIO
RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on November 16, 2023.
All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard.
At first look, tonight would appear to be a typical slate, but the data shows that it could end up being a funky night. Many of the stacks that look best are second and third lines on their teams, meaning that we won’t have to hunt for value to fit in the most desirable stacks. Sure, there are teams like Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh who will cost us quite a bit of money to roster but outside of those teams, there are so many affordable spots to attack tonight.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; four of which cost $12 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1000 or more. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $3000 first prize and a $33 entry, 106-person GPP with $1000 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Tampa Bay Lightning (TB1 - Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel)
The Lightning did us dirty on Tuesday night, getting held scoreless in a prime matchup at St Louis. We have to be goldfish (thanks, Ted Lasso) and forget that abomination because Tampa Bay once again presents us with a golden opportunity tonight. They head to Chicago in what may be the best matchup of any team on the slate. The data shows that the Blackhawks should be allowing 3.21 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play on home ice, yet they’ve only allowed 2.95 this season. That means negative regression could be on the way, and if it happens it could be since Chicago has surrendered 16.74 high-danger chances per game at home this year. That is the highest number on the slate.
Tampa has been outstanding on the road this year, averaging just about three goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five play. They’ve got one of the most lethal offenses in the league, and if people don’t have short memories then it’s possible they could have a lower ownership than expected. With all the value that’s presenting itself tonight, you could essentially “round robin” the Lightning with three or four of those teams and try to catch lightning in a bottle (pun very much intended).
Columbus Blue Jackets (CBJ3 - Johnny Gaudreau, Emil Bemstrom, Cole Sillinger)
It’s crazy that Johnny Gaudreau is on the third line for the Blue Jackets, but he’s been a massive disappointment and this could be the wake-up call that he needs. He could not ask for a better matchup to help break his slump, as the Columbus third line projects to share a ton of ice time with the Coyotes' third defensive pairing of Stecher/Brown. That duo has combined to allow over 23 high-danger chances per game this season, which is among the highest numbers I have seen all year.
As a team, Arizona has allowed over 13 high-danger chances per game on the road. They’ve allowed 2.9 goals per 60 in five-on-five play but they’re expected to have allowed over three goals per game. That’s not a ton of a difference, but either way, it’s a high number of goals that they’re allowing on the road.
Pittsburgh Penguins (PIT1 - Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust, Jake Guentzel)
The second of our big boy stacks on tonight’s slate is the Pittsburgh Penguins. After looking like an old, slow team to start the season, they’ve turned it around and look like one of the best offenses in the entire NHL. Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentezel, and Bryan Rust each rank in the top eleven in average DraftKings points per game on today’s slate. Sidney Crosby continues to be one of the best in the game, notching a goal or assist in all but one game this year.
Despite their success, Pittsburgh is actually in line for some positive regression as they average about half a goal less per 60 in five-on-five situations at home than the data would suggest. It’s scary that this offense has room to grow. New Jersey’s defense hasn’t been awful, but their goaltending has been suspect and you can attack their second defensive pairing of Marino/Siegenthaler.
Top Value Stack of the Night
Calgary Flames (CGY2 - Nazem Kadri, Yegor Sharangovich, Connor Zary)
This was not an easy choice with so many value stacks to choose from, but young Connor Zary is someone worth writing about. He’s played six NHL games and already has three goals, three assists, and three games of 12 or more DraftKings points. He’s still only priced at $3600, making his potential return on price high.
The Canucks continue to play over their head, and although I’m starting to believe in their defensive talent, there will be some regression and we can attack Ian Cole’s defensive pairing. The second line of the Flames looks to be getting the most ice time with Cole, and they are so inexpensive that you don’t need them to do too much to get a strong return. Zary and Nazem Kadri also get you exposure to the Flames' top power-play unit. That increases their potential for a big return, thus making them one of the best value stacks to use tonight.
Others in consideration: VGK2, STL3, CHI2, NJ2, MTL3
The @NHLFlames Connor Zary (3-3—6 in 6 GP) ranks second in rookie scoring since making his League debut on Nov. 1 behind Blackhawks forward Connor Bedard (5-2—7 in 4 GP) https://t.co/TG39heXlYj
— BucciOT.Com (@Buccigross) November 15, 2023
Top Goalies to Target
Semyon Varlamov (New York Islanders)
The Islanders' defense is playing way above their head, allowing almost two goals fewer per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations on the road, but Seattle doesn’t have the kind of offense that scares you off a goalie. They are scoring less than two goals per 60 at home, and the data shows that this is a legitimate number. They’re just not a strong offense.
Semyon Varlamov is standing on his head, saving 97% of the unblocked shots he is facing; a massively high number. He’s also seeing over 35 shots on goal per game, so the volume is there to help drive Varlamov to a high score even if he regresses and allows three goals. He’s priced well enough to be in consideration for both cash and GPP games.
Others in consideration (GPP): Karel Vejmelka, Casey DeSmith, Jordan Binnington, Jake Allen, Magnus Hellberg
Others in consideration (Cash): Cam Talbot, Adin Hill
