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John Brubaker's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - TNF Week 10 Panthers vs Bears showdown slate on 11/9. His Thursday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! We have about as much of a Thursday Night Football matchup as it gets; as the Carolina Panthers (1-7) head north to Chicago to take on Tyson Bagent's Bears (2-7). Ironically, this is one of the few matchups throughout the season that really doesn't have any merit, as the Bears own both first-round picks of the teams playing this game. Either way, buckle up, as we should be in for an interesting one.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates in previous years, and hopefully, that trend continues throughout the 2023 season and playoffs. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups, etc. to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season, gang.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Panthers vs. Bears NFL DFS showdown slate on November 9. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on X @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Adam Thielen - WR, $17,700 (DK), $15,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 76 targets, 62 receptions, 610 receiving yards, four touchdowns.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR1: 4.57%
I'll start things off with Adam Theilen. Theilen projects to 6.96 receptions on 8.6 targets for 69.27 yards and 0.49 touchdowns. The veteran receiver has somewhat turned back the clock this season and has been a target monster, seeing at least 11 targets in three of his last five games. While the matchup isn't that terrific anywhere in this game particularly, Theilen and the Panthers have somewhat of a passing funnel, so he should see targets early and often in this one.
Darnell Mooney - WR, $17,100 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 33 targets, 20 receptions, 307 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- Opposing Defense DVOA vs WR2: 31.96%
I'll take a look at Darnell Mooney next. My motto is typically to always trust my model, but I feel like my model is just a little bit off on this game. He projects to just 2.39 receptions on 4.31 targets for 29.17 receiving yards and 0.15 touchdowns. However, Carolina has that 31.96% DVOA against WR2s this season, and I think Mooney could take advantage of the safeties in this one, getting behind them and racking up 30+ yards on one reception alone.
Other Captains/MVPs: Bryce Young, Khalil Herbert, D'Onta Foreman
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DFS Flex Plays
Bryce Young - QB, $9,800 (DK), $14,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 1,375 passing yards, eight touchdowns, seven interceptions, 17 rushing attempts, 117 rushing yards, and two fumbles lost.
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: -1.1%
Throwing Adam Theilen the ball will be the reigning number one overall pick, Bryce Young. Young projects to just 214.29 passing yards and 1.49 touchdowns. Young's ceiling really relies on how Frank Reich and the Panthers decide to establish the run in this one. They do not have many rushing advantages whatsoever, which makes me think it'll be up to Bryce Young, Adam Theilen, and the Panthers' passing game to move the ball down the field tonight.
D'Onta Foreman - RB, $7,800 (DK), $11,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 65 rushing attempts, 287 rushing yards, 11 targets, seven receptions, and three touchdowns.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: 17.95%
I'll take a look at D'Onta Foreman next. As mentioned previously, I think my model is a bit off with the Bears tonight. Foreman only projects to 6.2 rushing attempts, 30.71 rushing yards, and 0.31 rushing touchdowns, with not much effect in the passing game. Sure, Khalil Herbert looks to be active for tonight's matchup. I just can't see a guy who ran the ball 20 times last week getting his touches cut down by more than half by a guy who hasn't touched the field since Week 5. Now, with that being said... stay tuned.
Other Flex Options: DJ Moore, Tyson Bagent, Cole Kmet
DFS Value Plays
Carolina Panthers - D/ST, $4,000 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 26 points per game allowed, 17 sacks, five interceptions, two fumble recoveries, and two defensive touchdowns.
I'll take a look at the Panthers' defense here, and truthfully I think both defenses are viable options here. The Panthers defense has been an interesting case this season. After their bye week following back-to-back weeks of giving up 42 points to the Lions and Dolphins, they've allowed 13 and 15 points to the Texans and Colts, respectively. With Tyson Bagent and the Bears on the slate tonight, I expect the Panthers to at least put a respectable performance out there in this one.
Khalil Herbert - RB, $4,200 (DK), $10,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2023 Stats: 51 rushing attempts, 272 rushing yards, 18 targets, 10 receptions, 83 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
- Projected Offensive Rush DVOA: 17.95%
I spoke about Khalil Herbert earlier when talking about D'Onta Foreman. My model clearly prefers Herbert over Foreman in this one: 11.48 rushing attempts, 50.38 rushing yards, 2.15 receptions, 13.48 receiving yards, and 0.51 touchdowns. Now, I think he is a bit over-projected considering he hasn't played in over a month. However, at this price, particularly on DraftKings, he's too cheap not to play in this spot.
Other Value Plays: Cairo Santos, Miles Sanders, Bears D/ST
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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