Get-Right Spots For Running Backs: Can Najee Harris, Breece Hall, David Montgomery, Tony Pollard, Bijan Robinson Rebound In Week 10?

Which big name running backs will have a get-right game in Week 10? Can Tony Pollard, Najee Harris, David Montgomery, Breece Hall, or Bijan Robinson have a game worth celebrating? Andrew Ball ranks their likelihood to rebound.

Bijan Robinson. Tony Pollard. Najee Harris. Breece Hall. David Montgomery. Some of these names are making fantasy managers shudder at the decisions they made on draft day.

Robinson and Pollard were Round 1 or early Round 2 selections. Harris came off the board a couple of rounds later. All three have been largely disappointing as we hit the halfway point of the season. Hall has been ramping up his efforts but is stuck on one of the worst offenses in football. Montgomery may have lost his job, or at least part of it, after sitting out two games with an injury.

In this article, I'll rank this quintet based on who is most likely to rebound in Week 10 and give fantasy managers a stat line worth the draft capital.

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Breece Hall, New York Jets

@ Las Vegas

In 2007, LeBron James made his first NBA Finals and promptly got swept. The soon-to-be four-time NBA MVP averaged 22 points, seven rebounds, and nearly seven assists in his Finals debut. His issue was his supporting cast. Journeyman Drew Gooden and rookie guard Daniel "Boobie" Gibson were the only other Cleveland Cavaliers to average over 10 points in that series.

Breece Hall isn't going to drag his team to the biggest stage as James did, but his supporting cast is akin to the Cavaliers. Garrett Wilson is a fine piece (à la Zydrunas Ilgauskas) but needs help to make plays. Zach Wilson is your Donyell Marshall (who shot just 31% in the Finals). Allen Lazard, Dalvin Cook, Xavier Gipson, and Tyler Conklin are all bench fodder.

Hall's usage will continue to be among the best in the league, regardless of the score, because that's far-and-away the best shot that the Jets have of scoring on offense. In the four weeks since his injury restrictions were lifted, the second-year back is totting the rock 15.5 times per game, while adding 4.5 catches. The rushing efficiency, however, has dipped over the last three games with two stout run defenses and the New York Giants selling out to stop him.

Outside of Monday Night Football, Hall has made up for it through dump-off passes. And if you watched MNF, you'd know that Hall had several more safety valve opportunities but the team opted to turn to Michael Carter down 21 with two minutes left. Wilson loves his checkdowns.

For as bad as the offense has been in New York, Hall has done everything he can. He's actually the RB5 in PPR formats over the last four weeks. There's just a sour taste in the mouth of fantasy managers who were depending on him for a victory in the final game of the week.

Number 20 should have no problem getting back on track when the Jets travel to Las Vegas. The Raiders give up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs per game. Even if bad Zach Wilson shows up in Sin City (as he has for the majority of his career), Hall will get enough touches to break off long runs. His breakaway run rate, after all, ranks eighth among all running backs.

Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys

vs. New York Giants

It only took him several weeks, but Dallas coach Mike McCarthy finally figured out that he should build his offense around the best player on the field. That, of course, is not Tony Pollard. It's wide receiver CeeDee Lamb.

Following the first three games of the season, when Pollard averaged 20 carries and 88 rushing yards per contest, the Cowboys subsequently participated in one blowout win and one blowout loss. The running back wasn't an active participant in either game due to the game script, so we'll exclude those for now. In the following three games, his attempts have dropped to 13, as Dak Prescott continues to feed Lamb.

The receptions remain mostly consistent. It's a statistic that Pollard ranks in the top five at the running back position and a saving grace due to his lack of touchdowns. He now has an NFL-high 136 consecutive touches without finding paydirt.

Some football fans have been talking about the play below against the Los Angeles Chargers, noting that the Pollard of 2022 wouldn't have been caught from behind. He did undergo a "TightRope" procedure at the beginning of the calendar year to repair ligaments from a high ankle sprain.

Whether he's lost a step or not, the featured running back role hasn't been kind to Pollard, outside of Week 1. Fortunately for fantasy managers, at least in the short term, the Cowboys' next opponent is the same one they faced in Pollard's best game, the New York Giants.

With undrafted rookie Tommy Devito starting at quarterback for the G-Men, it's not unreasonable to believe that the Cowboys could replicate something akin to their 40-0 victory from the inaugural contest of the season. If that's the case, Pollard may be removed from the game earlier than expected but will get ample opportunities to punch in a touchdown on a short field.

David Montgomery, Detroit Lions

@ Los Angeles Chargers

For David Montgomery, Week 10 isn't so much a get-right game, but rather a reclaim-the-job game. In his most recent two-game absence, complimentary running back Jahmyr Gibbs racked up 220 rushing yards and 14 catches for 95 yards. The rookie also scored against both Baltimore and Las Vegas. The Lions invested heavy draft capital (12th overall pick) into Gibbs so it's logical to assume that they view him as the future of the backfield. Coach Dan Campbell has made it abundantly clear both running backs have a role.

Statistics back up the claim that the pair can coexist. Gibbs' touchdown against Las Vegas came from 27 yards out. Upon moving within the five-yard line on a later drive, Detroit pulled Gibbs for Craig Reynolds. He subsequently fumbled, but that's neither here nor there. Reynolds, typically the third-string back, has two carries from within the five this season. Gibbs only has one.

That's where Montgomery will continue to shine. Despite missing three of the Lions' eight games, the veteran has eight attempts from within the five, converting four of them into touchdowns. It's exactly like the Jamaal Williams / D'Andre Swift debate from 2022. Swift was clearly the more explosive back but the coaching staff trusts the steady hand to finish the drive.

The Los Angeles Chargers are surprisingly stout against the run (possibly because they own the worst pass defense in football) but give up fantasy production through the air to the position. It's a matchup that slightly favors Gibbs, although Montgomery is no slouch in the receiving game either. Both running backs will be in the RB2 range this week, and for the rest of the season, as long as each remains healthy.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

vs. Green Bay

Backup running back Jaylen Warren was the king of the Steelers' backfield through the first five weeks, at least in terms of PPR fantasy scoring. In the games following the bye, it's been a complete flip-flop. Najee Harris has now outscored Warren in all three contests. His first and second touchdowns in the 2023 campaign have helped his cause.

3.82 yards per carry isn't ideal but it's actually a better average than Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler, and just a tenth of a yard worse than Travis Etienne Jr., who just dropped to the RB3 this season due to his bye week. Warren, for argument's sake, averages 4.7 yards per attempt.

The debate that Warren is the better running back has been going on since before the season began. While the backup has been earning more yards created per touch (4.59 to Harris' 3.29), much of his production is coming through high-value touches in the passing game. Warren's 3.6 catches per game ranks fifth among all running backs and allows him to make moves in space. The eye test, maybe the most important metric of them all, also favors Warren.

Harris, on the other hand, is tasked with bulldozing his way up the middle against a stacked front. He's seeing an extra defender or two in the box on a fourth of his carries. Yet, he has a breakaway run rate of 7.1%, good for ninth in the league.

It's the classic case of two running backs that complement each other well. It's great for real football, but agony for fantasy managers. The Steelers are, and will, continue to use both at the 55/45 split that we've seen through the first half of the season.

Just like Hall, Harris gets a Week 10 matchup that favors a ground attack. The Packers allow the tenth-most rushing yards per game but rank high when it comes to passing defense. In theory, this sets up to be a get-right game for Harris. But just like the running back listed below him, it's difficult to break out when there's a 1B to his 1A.

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

@ Arizona

If you have 10-15 minutes to spare, search Arthur Smith and either Bijan Robinson, Drake London, or Kyle Pitts on X. You'll have a good chuckle as you read post after post dunking on the Falcons' head coach. The latest absurdity came earlier this week when Smith explained to reporters how amazing Robinson is without the football in his hands.

“[Robinson] played a lot of snaps, and sometimes, his impact away from the ball can open things up." - Arthur Smith

The response stemmed from an inquiry about Robinson's lack of involvement near the goal line. Tyler Allgeier has 10 carries inside the 10-yard line through nine games. The eighth overall selection in the 2023 Draft has two. Robinson's lone rushing touchdown came from 13 yards out against the Tennessee Titans.

Allgeier is far more than a touchdown vulture. The second-year back out of BYU has more opportunities than the rookie in three games (including the infamous headache game) and split work evenly in another.

The numbers are even more jarring when analyzing carries and targets as separate categories. Removing Week 7, Robinson has carried the rock 102 times. Allgeier has 95 attempts.

Essentially, Robinson is substituting his high-value touches near the goal line for high-value touches in the passing game. Which is a silver lining in PPR formats, but a nightmare in standard-scoring leagues. Until there's a sudden shift in philosophy in Atlanta (i.e. Smith gets shown his walking papers), Robinson can't be trusted as anything more than an RB2, even in a favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.

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