RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers! If you do not know me, my name is Brandon and I write both The First-Serve and The Kick-Off for tennis and soccer, respectively. If you have not checked those out, make sure you do! It is the return of the NHL season, which means it's time to sharpen our skills and partake in NHL DFS! As always, I'll give you the best tools to succeed and the info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Today, I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis, and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel on Thursday, October 19, 2023, at 7:00 PM EDT. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools, including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets!
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected], via Twitter @df_solutions, or in our premium Slack chat. Good luck, RotoBallers!
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 10/19/23
We have finally made it! The 2023-2024 season is upon us and we welcome the next generational talent, Connor Bedard to the front and center! With many big moves over the offseason – Karlsson to Pittsburgh – and many signings during Free Agency, this season will make for yet another interesting race to Lord Stanley!
Tonight we have a 12-game slate and one team playing on a back-to-back, Pittsburgh. The currently live top-3 highest implied team totals are: Colorado with 4.4, Edmonton with 3.9 and New York Rangers with 3.9. I will do my best to guide you through this twelve-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
DISCLOSURE: Make sure to monitor the NHL news feeds for the latest player status and injury news.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Igor Shesterkin - DK $8.2K || FD $8.5K
Opponent - Nashville Predators
The Nashville Predators are 1-3 to start the season and have been held to two goals or less in two of their four games. Surprisingly, their worst performance of the season has come against the Edmonton Oilers, where they scored once in a 6-1 defeat in Edmonton. Now as they travel to the Big Apple, they will face their hardest goalie matchup of the young season, Igor Shesterkin. The Rangers netminder last season was ranked in the top 20 in Goals Saved Above Expected Per 60 – 0.52 – and he had a Save Percentage of 0.927. Although a small sample size, the Predators are in the top 10 in Shots For Per 60 this season, but the bottom three in Goals For Per 60. If Shesterkin can find a groove early on, he could be in line for a big performance.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP):
- Hill (DK $7.9K || FD $8.7K)
- Markstrom (DK $7.8K || FD $6.8K)
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— 🇺🇦Shockmain (@Shockmain) January 6, 2023
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Ryan Johansen - DK $3.7K || FD $4.2K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Even at his best, Johansen is a far cry from anything Nathan MacKinnon can do, however, Colorado’s second line could be in for a big night. The Blackhawks’ second line is the worst defensive line with a Defensive Rating of 17. Through four games played, the trio has yet to have a Goal Against when they are on the ice, however, they are conceding plenty of chances. Johansen in three games has 5 shots and 1 blocked shot. Certainly much worse than what many would have envisioned for him starting in an Avalanche sweater. Despite the poor start to his campaign in Colorado, he has a prime matchup tonight to finally open his points account in Denver.
Kevin Hayes - DK $3.1K || FD $3.9K
Opponent - Arizona Coyotes
Welcome to the Hayes show. Many may think that Hayes is ‘washed up’ or he doesn’t have what it takes to be a top center anymore. Well, tonight he is going to prove a lot of critics wrong. The centerman had a great preseason and instantly gelled with winger Jakub Vrana – another castaway that the Blues brought in –. However, the preseason form has not transferred into the regular season with just 1 shot from Hayes in two games. Why is he still getting mentioned? Well, folks, that is because the third line of the Arizona Coyotes is one of the worst defensive lines in the entire league to start the season with a Defensive Rating of 54. In three games, they have a Scoring Chances For Ratio of 7 to 22 and a High-Danger Chances For Ratio of 3 to 9. They have zero offense or defense generated from this line against bottom six competition. If Hayes can’t produce here, then he may never produce this season.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Hintz (DK $7.7K || FD $8.2K)
- Tavares (DK $7.1K || FD $7.6K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Valeri Nichushkin - DK $4.7K || FD $6.5K
Opponent - Chicago Blackhawks
Now that Nichushkin is healthy again both physically and mentally and his past is behind, he is being given the chance to cement himself on the top line again with teammates Nathan MacKinnon and Miko Rantanen. In three games this season, Nichushkin has 1 goal, 1 assist, 8 shots, and 1 blocked shot. That was all playing with Ryan Johansen – mentioned above – and now the winger gets a massive upgrade at center. Unfortunately, he will not see the defenseless second line of Chicago, but their top line is still nothing to write home about providing ample opportunities to score tonight.
Leon Draisaitl - DK $8.8K || FD $9.8K
Opponent - Edmonton Oilers
Is there anything that truly needs to be said about Draisaitl? In his first two games without teammate Connor McDavid, he had 2 goals, 1 assist and 9 shots. In his one game with McDavid, he has 2 goals, 2 assists, and 5 shots. His shot volume will go down a bit due to playing on a line with both Evander Kane and McDavid, however, his points total will skyrocket. Excluding the first game of the season – a 5-3 loss to Tampa Bay, Nashville has been improving each game defensively. However, they were thumped by Edmonton in a 6-1 loss. If Draisaitl and company can put together that performance against Nashville, they can easily match that against Philadelphia.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Pastrnak (DK $9.4K || FD $10K)
- Huberdeau (DK $4K || FD $5.5K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Pavel Mintyukov - DK $3.3K || FD $K
Opponent - Dallas Stars
Anaheim fans can finally rejoice as their team is starting to come together and their top prospects are making an impact. Pavel Mintyukov since being drafted in 2022, has been one of the top prospects in a deep pool for the Ducks, and in two games he has looked right at home. In those two games, he has 1 goal, 4 shots, and 5 blocked shots and due to form an immediate impact, he has been promoted to quarterback the top power-play unit. Keep in mind that those performances were against the Vegas Golden Knights and the Carolina Hurricanes. Now he will have his hardest match to date against the Dallas Stars. Even if he does not record a point tonight, peripherals alone should help him in reaching value.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - DK $3.7K || FD $4.6K
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
To close things out we will look at one of the top projected matchups of the slate and immediately look at the power play. OEL has played exactly as advertised since arriving in Florida. In three games, he has 1 assist, 8 shots, and 5 blocked shots. The veteran offensive-defenseman has started to mold into a two-way defenseman providing peripherals as a bonus. Add in that he is quarterbacking one of the top power-play units in the league and he becomes a ‘no-brainer’ for this salary. In the very small sample size to start the season, the Maple Leafs are the second-worst in Goals Against Per 60 and in the bottom ten in both Scoring Chances Against Per 60 and High-Danger Chances Against Per 60.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP):
- Durzi (DK $4.5K || FD $4.4K)
- Hague (DK $3.3K || FD $4.2K)
NHL DFS Top Power Plays and Stacks
- TOR1
- EDM1
- COL1
- VGK1
- VAN1
- CGY1
NHL DFS Stacks of the Day
Brandon's Stack
- STL: Vrana-Hayes-Blais
Chalk Stack
- COL: Nichushkin-MacKinnon-Rantanen
Sneaky Stack
- SJ: Zadina-Hertl-Duclair
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
