Top 10 Biggest Fantasy Football Surprises This Season

The NFL scriptwriters have been busy this season, writing storylines George R.R. Martin would be proud of. Just like Game of Thrones, no one is safe.

In this article, I rank my top-10 fantasy football surprises this season. This list has career resurgences and rookie revelations, here are the players who have blown expectations out of the water.

My name is Ellis Johnson, and here are my 10 most surprising storylines for fantasy football in 2023. Catch me each week for Sleeper prop predictions and touchdown calls in the Pie Shop!

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10. The Houston Texans and C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU)

Starting this list at 10 are the Texans and C.J. Stroud. It’s amazing to think that this team had the second-best odds for the 2024 first-overall pick going into the season. This team is now sitting at 500 and progressively getting better each week.

Despite a wild amount of injuries to both their secondary and offensive line, DeMeco Ryans has this team humming. The only reason this comes in at 10 is that we knew Stroud could be elite entering the NFL. After setting the record for most attempts without a pick, it’s all but confirmed. Congratulations Texans fans, you have found your footing for the first time in a while.

9. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (RB, DET)

I have a feeling this storyline coming in at nine will seem low to some people. Yes, it’s surprising that a team would use a top 12 draft pick on a running back and “not use him,” but it’s exactly what the coaches said all off-season. Right from the draft, this team viewed Gibbs as a “weapon” rather than a running back and paid David Montgomery to be their ground and pound back.

Maybe it’s because many believed Montgomery wasn’t a talented back, but this usage is going exactly how it was displayed all offseason. Still, the fact a team could mismanage their draft picks and not use the player puts the Lions on this list. Whenever Montgomery returns from this injury, he'll be in my top-five RBs each week.

8. Mike Evans (WR, TB)

I’ll be honest, I was not a believer in Evans this year. Why? Looking back, I had no good reason. All Evans has done has been great, and now is gunning for his 10th consecutive 1000-yard season. Baker Mayfield had this offense cooking to start the season, and this team desperately needs a ground attack. Until they find that, it’s a pass-heavy team with two great WR talents. 

Evans has looked as good if not better than he has the last few seasons. The big play, big-bodied WR is well on his way to having another excellent season. He may be older, but you can’t doubt him anymore. He's a high-upside WR-two for the rest of the season.

7. D'Andre Swift (RB, PHI)

I’ll be honest, this is probably the surprise I’m most fired up about. I am one of those people who have been hyping Swift up ever since he was drafted. Obviously, his stint in Detroit was not as successful as we hoped, but he flashed enough plays to know the talent was there. Now, his patient running ability is playing behind one of the best lines in the league and absolutely ripping it up. 

I’m going to pat myself on the back for this one. Back in June, FantasyPros ran an article asking analysts who their “league winners” for the 2023 season are. Absolutely I chose to call out Swift because despite all the negative press the pieces were there for a big year. Now after six weeks, he is fifth in rushing yards and tied for fourth in receptions. He is a top-eight back for me for the rest of the season.

6. Travis Etienne (RB, JAX)

Everyone wants to call players “this year’s Josh Jacobs” but few actually fit that description. To me, Travis Etienne has to be the closest to Jacobs last season. All off-season we were hearing how thrilled the team was with their third-round pick Tank Bigsby. On top of that, all reports out of camp have Bigsby handling the goal-line carries and Etienne being featured between the 20s.

After a few egregious rookie errors by Bigsby, Etienne is now one of the few workhorses in the league. Through six weeks he has taken 75% of the team’s RB carries in the red zone and has increasingly seen work on the goalline. With his explosive ability, the goalline touches can vault him into top-five RB potential. That’s well above his RB10 average draft position.

5. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)

The only negative surprise on this list is Rhamondre Stevenson and the Patriots. This is bad, like really bad. This team is averaging nearly two turnovers a game and the second-worst turnover margin per game. Arguably the worst part about this is that there is no clear scapegoat. QB play, player personnel, defense, injuries, you name it, all factor into the Patriots’ demise.

For fantasy, Stevenson has been arguably the biggest bust of the year. After being drafted as the RB11, he is currently the RB22 on the season and it doesn’t seem to be getting better. In fact, going into last week he was the only back with 65+ attempts to not have a run of 15 yards or more. He managed to have one of those runs last week, but it’s not looking good for last year’s breakout star.

4. Adam Thielen (WR, CAR)

At age 33, Adam Thielen is exploding for fantasy purposes on the worst team in the NFL. Say what you will about the team not having sufficient personnel or being a pure volume player, at the end of the day Thielen is balling out. 

So far he is tied for third in receptions with Stefon Diggs and the WR-five in fantasy. This coaching staff got this right, bringing Thielen in to be a big-bodied veteran target for the rookie Bryce Young. There is no reason for his usage to slow down, making him one of the best storylines in 2023.

3. Miami Dolphins and Raheem Mostert (RB, MIA)

From one older player to another, Mostert is balling out. Well, this entire Dolphins is absolutely balling out. It’s not a surprise that this team is an offensive powerhouse, but this team is on pace to be the best offense in NFL history. Tyreek Hill is nearly 200 yards ahead of the next highest WR and the team averages over seven points more a game than the next best offense.

One of the biggest surprises from this has been Raheem Mostert. After being notorious for his lightning speed, he has managed to stay healthy in his age 31 seasons, Mostert has an incredible 11 touchdowns in six games. Whether it’s De'Von Achane or Mostert in the backfield, this team is a goldmine for fantasy.

2. Kyren Williams (RB, LAR)

I’m not sure Kyren the Siren is getting enough talk this season. After this team seemingly repaired the burnt bridges with Cam Akers this offseason, Williams was stuck competing for the change of pace role. However, there was some buzz from last season (before he tore his ACL in the first game) that Sean McVayy preferred Williams and his pass-protection prowess. That narrative completely disappeared after Akers led the league in rushing yards over the last three games of 2022.

Fast forward to Week Seven of 2023, Cam Akers was moved for a late-round pick swap and Kyren Williams is the biggest workhorse back in the league. In fact, he is one of two backs to have 100% of their team’s red zone carries and is currently the RB-four for fantasy. The fifth-round pick in 2022 may not be the most efficient player, but his elite pass protection has McVayy using him everywhere.

1. Puka Nacua (WR, LAR)

I can’t believe we are going from one Rams’ fifth-round pick to another. Hands down this team and these players have been the biggest NFL surprise. Even with Cooper Kupp returning, Nacua has made his mark on the league. Not only did he demolish any rookie reception records at the start of the season, but he is continuing to find success with Kupp back in the mix.

Last week was his first game below 50 yards and five receptions. Nacua immediately entered this league and feasted on zone coverages. When you break almost all the rookie records in your first four games as a fifth-round WR, you have to be atop the surprises list.

Thanks for reading my article, catch me for prop picks and touchdown predictions every week!

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