NFL DFS: Week 7 Matchups First Look - Totals, Salaries, Slates and more

Week Six was...well, it was something. The Browns upset the 49ers without Watson, the Jets pulled off an improbable comeback against the Eagles, and the Bills tried their very hardest to lose to an inferior Giants team...but didn't. There were upsets and a lot of injuries...and some pretty darn good fantasy performances mixed in there as well. Week 7 might be shaping up to be - the week of the backup quarterback!

This year, I am launching a "first look" article that should drop every Tuesday. This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information to come in during the week regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!

We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, October 22. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week, but I am hoping that you find it helpful when starting your weekly research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get my DFS cheat sheets and plays all season long. Use promo code THUNDERDAN to let them know I sent you!

Week 7 Vegas Totals and Team Data

Every week we will be looking at the top implied team totals for the main slate. With six teams on byes and another six teams not on the main slate because of the three prime time slates, we are left with just 10 games on the main slate (20 teams). Keep that in mind as we go through all the matchups, we have over 1/3 of the teams in the league not included in these rankings!

Top Implied Team Totals for Week 7: Main Slate Only

1. Chiefs - 27
2. Seahawks - 26
3. Bills - 25
4. Rams - 23.5
5. Packers - 23

Patrick Mahomes against AFC West opponents:

Broncos: 12-0
Chargers: 7-2
Raiders: 9-1#KCSN | #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/g6rpMln6uU

— KC Sports Network (@KCSportsNetwork) October 17, 2023

2023 Top-Scoring Teams Through Six Games: Points Per Game

1. Bills - 28.8
2. Lions - 28
3. Chargers - 25.4
4. Seahawks - 24.8
5. Chiefs - 24.5

2023 Stingiest Defenses Through Six Games: Points Allowed Per Game (Avoid)

1. Chiefs - 14.7
2. Bills - 14.8
3. Ravens - 15.2
4. Browns - 15.4
5. Bucs - 17.6

High Powered Offenses: Most Total Yards Through Six Games

1. Lions - 383.7
2. Chiefs - 382.3
3. Bills - 374.8
4. Rams - 367.0
5. Chargers - 365.4

Struggling Defenses: Most Total Yards Allowed Through Six Games

1. Broncos - 440.3
2. Chargers - 391.6
3. Steelers - 389.4
4. Commanders - 377.2
5. Cardinals - 376.7

Week 7 DFS Matchups

Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. I will be citing specifically DVOA data courtesy of FTN for the passing and rushing matchups.

Top-Five Matchups for Passing Offenses (2023 data)

(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)

1. Bills (3) @ Patriots (23)
2. Seahawks (7) vs. Cardinals (31)
3. Chiefs (5) vs. Chargers (21)
4. Packers (11) @ Broncos (32)
5. Bucs (15) @ Falcons (29)

The all-22 of Josh Allen’s absolutely bonkers TD pass into the tiniest of windows pic.twitter.com/duFm2XsFVL

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 16, 2023

Top-Five Matchups for Rushing Offenses (2023 data)

(DVOA offensive and defensive rankings in parentheses)

1. Commanders (10) @ Giants (30)
2. Seahawks (13) vs. Cardinals (29)
3. Rams (5) vs. Steelers (20)
4. Broncos (11) vs. Packers (26)
5. Chiefs (16) vs. Chargers (24)

THERE GOES THAT MAN BRIAN ROBINSON JR!

TOUCHDOWN #COMMANDERS!#HTTC | @Commanders pic.twitter.com/K7EZfhTyVp

— The Athletes Plug (@TheAthletesPlug) October 15, 2023

2022 Top-Five DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position

(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)

QB - Chargers (Mahomes), Broncos (Love), Commanders (Jones/Taylor?), Bears (Garoppolo?), Cardinals (Smith)

RB - Broncos (Jones/Dillon), Cardinals (Walker III), Bears (Jacobs), Packers (J. Williams), Giants (Robinson Jr.)

WR - Chargers (Rice), Seahawks (Brown), Commanders (Robinson), Steelers (Kupp), Cardinals (Metcalf/Lockett)

TE - Broncos (Musgrave), Lions (Andrews), Falcons (Otton), Bears (Mayer), Colts (Njoku)

DEF - Giants (WAS), Patriots (BUF), Bears (LV), Browns (IND), Commanders (NYG)

Week 7 DFS Salary and Injury Analysis

Every week pricing gets TIGHTER and we feel the squeeze. This makes punt plays more appealing and the idea of a cheap stack incredibly appealing as we try to fit the high-priced smash plays around it.

Let's roll with DraftKings pricing. We do have a lot of cheap options this week with so many backup quarterbacks getting the call.

1. Love - Doubs (10.6k)
2. Ridder - London (10.3k)
3. Howell - Samuel (9.5k)
4. Dobbs - Brown (10.5k)
5. Mayfield - Otton (8.2k)

I love attacking the Falcons with tight ends and the Tampa receivers are a bit pricey, so we are rocking the Mayfield-Otton stack for a super cheap 8.2k!

Injury Situations to Monitor This Week

QB: Fields - doubtful, Watson - questionable, Jones - questionable, Garoppolo - questionable

RB: Montgomery - sounds doubtful, K. Williams - OUT, A. Jones - questionable,

WR: D. Johnson - expected to return from IR

TE: Freiermuth - expected to play, Kincaid + Granson - concussion protocol

Week 7 Interesting Stats

• Kenneth Walker III has been a touchdown machine this season. He has six touchdowns, with five of those runs coming from inside the five-yard line. He has handled 90% of Seattle's runs from inside the 5-yard line and 88% of their runs from inside the 10-yard line.
• It didn't take Cooper Kupp long to get back to dominating the wide receiver room for the Rams. Through his first two games, he owns a 52% share of the team's air yards. This week he will face a very beatable Steelers secondary, too.
• Stefon Diggs ranks third in the NFL in targets, fourth in receptions, third in yards receiving, and second in receiving touchdowns.
• Josh Jacobs is only averaging 51 rushing yards per game but ranks first among running backs in targets, second in receptions, and first in yards receiving.
• While we are on the Raiders, Jimmy Garoppolo has been pressured the second-least amount (just 14.3% of the time) and faces a Bears pass defense this week that is in the bottom tier in almost every stat category.

Alright, that's it for my Week 7 data dump! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!

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