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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for October 12 and 13, 2023 Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets with the results from Week 6.
It was another fun week in the last great college football season. Washington and Oregon played yet another entertaining game in that rivalry. Jeff Brohm's team repeated the trend from a disturbing cycle at Purdue in which they fell flat the week after a top-ten win. Pitt finally moved on from Phil Jurkovec. Texas Tech's QB room is a M*A*S*H* unit by Week 7 every year and this is no exception.
We only have three more games before the weekend this week. Tuesday's and Wednesday's picks were in the DFS article. That may be the case going forward with ESPN blessing us with so many mid-week games between the Fun Belt, Conference USA, and MACtion (coming soon). Hey, I'm not complaining. Any weekday with college football on is a gift in my book!
We are finally done with FBS vs. FCS matchups for a little while. The SEC goes cupcaking in November, but we might be free of them until then. This is the first week without one of those matchups, but several teams are off so we still "only" have 56 games this week.
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 8 (10/19-20/23)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top-five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
James Madison (-3.5) at Marshall
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
The Dukes are the Rodney Dangerfields of Vegas. They get absolutely no respect. Marshall is a good team, but not good enough to stand toe-to-toe with this defense and win. Dukes by 10 or so...
Rice at Tulsa (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Rice has burned me some this year, but I wasn't impressed with Braylon Braxton before he went down. JT Daniels and the Rice offense are going to eat this defense alive. Rice outright!
SMU (-20.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't trust the SMU offense (or defense, for that matter), but I trust Temple even less. I'm riding the Ponies.
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CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results
I promised transparency and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? Here are the results from this season so far. I am still updating the past year's results and adding them to the sheet. I found most of my old articles and have the points system all the way back to 2015. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.
Louisiana Tech at Middle Tennessee State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
Can you imagine if Smoke Harris played for a good team? Hank Bachmeier's return helped the Bulldogs a little, but not enough.
Liberty (-6.5) at Jacksonville State: MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 2
I really want to see a Liberty/James Madison bowl game. Someone make this happen!
Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State (-6.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
This was the best game Grayson McCall has played since 2020.
UTEP at Florida International (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
So this is what happens when UTEP finds a quarterback. Cade McConnell has the schedule to lead this team to a bowl.
Sam Houston at New Mexico State (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Confidence Factor: 3
Going 0-5 to start the week is never good.
West Virginia (-2.5) at Houston: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
KNOCK THE DAMN BALL DOWN!
SMU (-11.5) at East Carolina: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I do think that Mason Garcia is going to have a couple of good years for ECU. This is not one of them.
Tulane (-4.5) at Memphis: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Finally! Makhi Hughes gives Tulane that added dimension that they had last year with Tyjae Spears.
Fresno State (-4.5) at Utah State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Lost it by a half. Utah State's defense couldn't hold for anything in this game.
Stanford at Colorado (-11.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Anyone can blow a 29-point lead, but can you do it with swagger? Colorado is losing all substance on this team. It's all about grandstanding now and the back end of that defense makes USC's secondary look like Georgia's. Eric Ayomanor racked up 294 receiving yards and he didn't even catch his first pass until after halftime!
(1) Georgia (-31.5) at Vanderbilt: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This win was a loss for the Bulldogs. Brock Bowers is the reason they are still undefeated.
Indiana at (2) Michigan (-33.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Michigan might finally be awake after hibernating through September.
(3) Ohio State (-19.5) at Purdue: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Kyle McCord is sure looking good going into the Penn State game.
Syracuse at (4) Florida State (-17.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Seminoles brought it in this one. The Syracuse passing game was completely shut down. Garrett Schrader's food poisoning didn't help, but it wasn't worth 38 points either.
Arkansas at (11) Alabama (-19.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This was a good showing from an Arkansas defense that sorely needed one. I do believe that Alabama will lose at least one more game. They were more than just lethargic in this one. They lack consistent playmakers on offense outside of Jalen Milroe.
Michigan State at Rutgers (-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This was one of the greatest comebacks in the history of Rutgers football and a cataclysmic failure of Michigan State's special teams in the last 20 minutes. The Spartans still have a lot of work to do, but Katin Houser looks like part of the solution instead of more of a problem.
Iowa State at Cincinnati (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Cincinnati will get better. Iowa State is already there. Jayden Higgins may have jumped over Jaylin Noel in the pecking order.
Temple at North Texas (-6.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The over had no prayer of hitting once E.J. Warner was ruled out. It also made me go heavy on North Texas. Unfortunately, I forgot to raise the bet here on this page.
Georgia Southern at James Madison (-5.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Words cannot explain how much I hate the NCAA right now. Their spineless and cowardly "leadership" let greed kill college football conferences. They destroyed any meaning in the regular season with the expansion of the playoff. Perhaps the worst thing they did was not let James Madison compete in bowl season because they wanted more money for "established schools." The Dukes should have been in a bowl last year and might be in a New Year's Six bowl this year if the NCAA had any clue what fans actually want.
I want to see a purple showdown round-robin style between TCU, Kansas State, and James Madison. You want to make college football more interesting? That's how you do it. A Gamecock showdown between South Carolina and Jacksonville State works too. How about a Trojan-off between USC and Troy? Forget playoff expansion. Let's add more fun back to the game!
Kent State at Eastern Michigan (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This set the tone for the entire game. This was also the difference between the hook getting me and cashing the ticket.
Navy (-3.5) at Charlotte: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Charlotte offense is downright offensive, and not in a good way.
Toledo (-16.5) at Ball State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No lie, this was one of the worst football games I have ever watched. It was tied at three at the end of three quarters. Most of it didn't have to do with good defense. Peny Boone looked like the only talented player on the field for most of this game.
California at (16) Utah (-10.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Beating a spunky Cal team without Cameron Rising is one thing. USC might be something different. I want to believe that Rising will play and that this isn't a lost season for the team that I had ranked second in preseason. I have nothing to base that belief on though.
Massachusetts at (6) Penn State (-42.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Jeez, you bullies! What did UMass ever do to you?
(8) Oregon at (7) Washington (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This isn't a rivalry, huh? Both schools are willing to ditch the Apple Cup and the Civil War, but they are keeping this one. This is just the beginning, and this game was everything that we thought it would be.
Texas A&M at (19) Tennessee (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
In true Jimbo Fisher fashion, the Aggies come out flat in a big road game. His seat must be getting warm, no?
(23) Kansas (-2.5) at Oklahoma State: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Don't blame Jason Bean for this loss. He looked good against a pretty good defense. This was all Ollie Gordon all the time for the Pokes. Kansas had no answer for him at all.
If only the Heisman Trophy wasn't just a popularity contest for millionaire quarterbacks...
Troy (-5.5) at Army: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Gunnar Watson throwing for 227 yards on a day like this is nothing short of remarkable.
Illinois at Maryland (-13.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Does anyone else think that just maybe Taulia Tagovailoa is an absolute waste on this team? He deserves better.
Florida at South Carolina (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
You can no longer be considered a good defense when Graham Mertz throws for 423 yards on you. Maybe it just took him a half-season to get rid of the trauma done to him in Madison.
Wake Forest at Virginia Tech (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I would have bet 10 points on this if I could have. It took Kyron Drones a bit to get going, but once he did, this game was in hand.
BYU at TCU (-5.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
How was I supposed to know that Josh Hoover was the second coming of Max Duggan? Is Sonny Dykes really dumb enough to pick Chandler Morris over a much better quarterback two years in a row? It certainly looks like it.
Florida Atlantic at South Florida (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Where will Byrum Brown be next year? I doubt it's here with this defense...
Akron at Central Michigan (-12.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
How in the world did the Chips beat South Alabama in Mobile?
Bowling Green at Buffalo (-3.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I should have known better. There was no way that Buffalo was the better team.
Miami (OH) (-8.5) at Western Michigan: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Brett Gabbert is finally starting to look comfortable on a football field again.
Iowa at Wisconsin (-9.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I didn't expect an outright win for the Hawkeyes, but this was exactly the kind of game that I expected. I still don't think Wisconsin wins even if Tanner Mordecai played the entire game. That 82-yard run by Leshon Williams was the longest for the Hawkeyes since 1997. That's how devoid of big plays this offense has been in the last quarter-century.
Ohio (-5.5) at Northern Illinois: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Antario Brown was outgained by Gavin Williams and Sieh Bangura was upstaged by O'Shaan Allison. At least I lost the spread pick as well. I would have felt dirty winning it...
UNLV (-7.5) at Nevada: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I let the rivalry game get into my head.
San Jose State (-7.5) at New Mexico: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I really, really, REALLY hope that this conference doesn't add Washington State and Oregon State. Not only do the Cougars and Beavers deserve better, but I don't want to deal with 45-point spreads when they play teams like the Lobos.
(14) Louisville (-7.5) at Pittsburgh: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
In true Jeff Brohm fashion, his team comes out lifeless after a top-10 win. It sucks for Phil Jurkovec, but he should have been benched two games ago. Christian Veilleux (how is it legal for him to NOT play for LSU??) deserved his shot and should start at least one more game for Pitt.
Arizona at (19) Washington State (-7.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It's hard to believe that this is the same team that beat Oregon State. I love the way Arizona plays, but even I didn't see this coming. The offense for Arizona was really good, but it was the defense that hammered this home.
Auburn at (22) LSU (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I should have gone heavier on this. I let Auburn hanging with Georgia sway my opinion.
Kansas State at Texas Tech (-1.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Will Howard, we hardly knew ya! K-State fans will always cherish the 2022 season, but it's very clear that Avery Johnson deserves to start for the rest of the season regardless of whether Howard is healthy or not. In true Texas Tech fashion, they lose yet another quarterback. Jake Strong started strong, but interceptions on three of four drives doomed the Red Raiders.
Marshall at Georgia State (-1.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That Marshall run defense was absolutely abused by Marcus Carroll and Darren Grainger.
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State (-16.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yuck. It took a miracle for the Bobcats to even win this.
Wyoming at Air Force (-11.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Wyoming was in control early, but Air Force choked them like a python in the second half. Wyoming not winning outright cost me several hundred on my underdog parlay (Missouri, Iowa, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Wyoming all outright winners).
(10) USC at (21) Notre Dame (-2.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I flipped on this game a lot. I chose the Irish in Pick Em, but let public opinion (and Vegas) sway me. I should have known better and stuck with my gut. I even bet the Irish, but didn't change it here. The Irish provided a blueprint on how to beat USC. Only one team left on their schedule has the defense to pull it off...
(25) Miami (FL) at (12) North Carolina (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This money wasn't as easy as I hoped, but I never felt like Carolina was going to lose either. Tyler Van Dyke exposed the Tarheels secondary. Luckily for the Tarheels, they won't play another good quarterback until the ACC title game unless Riley Leonard recovers more quickly than anticipated.
Missouri at (24) Kentucky (-2.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That punter throws a better deep ball than a dozen starting FBS quarterbacks. This changed the game for the Tigers, and maybe the course of their season as a whole.
(18) UCLA at (15) Oregon State (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Live this up, D.J. Clemson fans did you dirty. At least those in Corvallis appreciate your talent. I love seeing D.J. Uiagalelei play loose and with confidence again. It was missing from his game in 2022.
North Carolina State at (17) Duke (-3.5): HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I shouldn't have chickened out on this. I trust Duke's defense and Duke didn't put Henry Belin in a position to make mistakes.
UAB at UTSA (-9.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The UTSA defense was markedly better in this one.
Boise State (-7.5) at Colorado State: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This way by far the most entertaining game of the weekend. I hope you were all up to see it! I'm sure most of you turned it off with Boise up 17-0 at halftime, but Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi took over the game.
San Diego State (-5.5) at Hawaii: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Lucky Sutton burst onto the scene in this one. Yes, the Aztecs unearthed yet another running back...
College Football Betting Season Results
I was expecting a much worse week since I started 1-9 before Saturday even started. All that considered, 25-30 really isn't that bad. That means I went 24-21 on Saturday. If I would have changed a couple of my bets on here, it would have been even better. I'm pretty sure I lost points, but let's see how that goes...
The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 2-4 (18-25) = -7
2. 7-12 (71-74) = -6
3. 11-10 (63-60) = 9
4. 2-2 (19-23) = -16
5. 3-2 (15-8) = 35
I only lost four points on the week. Not bad for missing five picks! I am still 15 points to the good on the season. I don't know exactly what my cumulative total is since I have already found one discrepancy and I'm still tallying points from 2015. It is a one-point error in my favor. I hope to have that updated by the end of the season...and maybe find a couple more points along the way. Unfortunately, I triple-checked 2022's total again and I still lost big. We're on to better things this year.
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