Welcome to our Chiefs vs. Vikings fantasy football start 'em, sit' em matchups analysis article for Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season.
Read our matchups analysis, player breakdowns, and lineup recommendations for the matchup and set those winning lineups. Good luck RotoBallers!
Kansas City Chiefs at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: Chiefs -3.5
Implied Total: Chiefs (28) vs. Vikings (24.5)
Pace: Chiefs (21st) vs. Vikings (3rd)
Chiefs Off. DVOA: 36.2% Pass (7th), -0.4% Rush (11th)
Vikings Off. DVOA: 19.4% Pass (14th), -8.7% Rush (20th)
Chiefs Def. DVOA: -2.7% Pass (10th), -5.7% Rush (20th)
Vikings Def. DVOA: 12.0% Pass (20th), -7.8% Rush (17th)
Matchups We Love
Justin Jefferson (WR, MIN)
The Jefferson touchdown regression has been on full display the past two weeks, totaling three of them. They chose to lean on their rushing attack for the first time this season, which is wise against Carolina. It meant only 19 passing attempts for Kirk Cousins, so the fact that Jefferson had nine of them is quite impressive.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON HIT THE "TOO SMALL" 👀
Second TD of the day for JJ.
(via @Vikings)pic.twitter.com/MmA7X3GGRo
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 1, 2023
Unfortunately, that left K.J. Osborn and Jordan Addison on the outside looking in. Addison full out goosed, which hurts, but there's no doubt they'll need to air it out this week to keep up with Kansas City. Osborn is operating as the team's No. 2 receiver, but he's still behind T.J. Hockenson. He and Addison are around the top 36 in a potential shootout.
T.J. Hockenson (TE, MIN)
Hockenson posted a dud, but we already reviewed why. Nothing from his usage suggests anything changed. He's a top-five tight end.
Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
Mahomes made some uncharacteristic mistakes, throwing three interceptions, including one that was called back on a questionable pass interference penalty. That said, the Jets boast an elite defense. The Vikings, on the other hand, are a wonderful matchup. At some point, he'll need one of his many receivers to emerge as a reliable option, but we'll get to that shortly.
Patrick Mahomes has beaten every NFL franchise except two…
🏈Indianapolis Colts (0-2)
🏈Minnesota Vikings (0-0)Vikings look to remain on this list after Sunday! #skol pic.twitter.com/QIf78oNmhR
— Leighton Glodek (@LGlodek) October 6, 2023
Travis Kelce (TE, KC)
It was a bumpy ride for Kelce in New York, but heading to Minnesota will surely rectify the situation. When six receptions for 60 yards is lower output at the tight end position, you know you're among the best.
Isiah Pacheco (RB, KC)
The talent of Pacheco as a runner is undeniable. He runs hard and punishes defenders. He sits fifth in elusive rating and missed tackles forced on 4.9 yards per carry. The issue is that he typically shares a lot of work, especially as a pass-catcher. Against the Jets, he was unleashed with 20 of the 26 (77%) rushing attempts and three of the five targets. If we knew he'd see that level of volume each week, he'd be in the top 12 on this offense.
Matchups We Hate
None
Other Matchups
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
We covered the Cousins situation earlier. They chose to run on the Panthers even though they trailed for a large portion of the game. The Chiefs have been tougher to throw on this season, limiting quarterbacks to fewer than 15 fantasy points per game while ranking 10th in pass defense DVOA. Cousins falls a bit but he's still in the top 12 based on their offensive philosophy and his weapons.
Alexander Mattison (RB, MIN)
Mattison did see the lowest snap percentage of the season with Cam Akers active, but he was still the definitive starter with more than double the snaps, 12 more rushing attempts, and three more routes. He also capitalized on the matchup, running for over five yards per carry with nearly 100 on the day. There should be a lot of points scored by both teams, keeping him in play as a top-24 back for another week.
RB snap share leaders through Week 3:
1) Kyren Williams - 85%
2) Zack Moss - 85%
T-3) CMC - 80%
T-3) Rachaad White - 80%
T-3) Saquon Barkley - 80%
6) Josh Jacobs - 79%
7) Alexander Mattison - 77%
8) Travis Etienne - 74% 👀
T-9) Bijan Robinson - 73%
T-9) James Conner - 73%— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) September 27, 2023
Rashee Rice (WR, KC)
The receiver that is on his way to emerging is Rice. We highlighted his underlying metrics last week, which were indicative of a potential breakout. His snaps continue to hover around 50%, but he led this group in every receiving category. In his fourth NFL game in an offense that is known to be challenging, it's a great sign. Keep him in mind as a flex option that might see even more work if the back-and-forth aerial attack comes to fruition. There's no one else to take a shot on, despite the positive outlook.
Notable Injuries
Richie James (knee)
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