Saints vs. Patriots: Week 5 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em - Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Rhamondre Stevenson

Welcome to our Saints vs. Patriots fantasy football start 'em, sit' em matchups analysis article for Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season.

Read our matchups analysis, player breakdowns, and lineup recommendations for the matchup and set those winning lineups. Good luck RotoBallers!

New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots

Spread: Saints -1.0
Implied Total: Saints (20.25) vs. Patriots (19.25)
Pace: Saints (6th) vs. Patriots (2nd)
Saints Off. DVOA: -6.6% Pass (23rd), -11.5% Rush (21st)
Patriots Off. DVOA: 5.9% Pass (20th), -15.9% Rush (24th)
Saints Def. DVOA: -4.3% Pass (9th), -12.5% Rush (15th)
Patriots Def. DVOA: 1.5% Pass (12th), -19.8% Rush (8th)

Matchups We Love

None

Matchups We Hate

Derek Carr (QB, NO)

It's an all-around ugly matchup here offensively. Two above-average defenses face against two below-average offenses, which doesn't bode well for fantasy. Carr gutted it out with an injured shoulder and could not throw the ball down the field. The result was a pitiful 3.4 yards per attempt traveling a distance of 0.4 air yards per attempt. Despite completing 23 passes, only eight of them (34.7%) went to wide receivers. It's tempting to explain away the extremely low numbers with his shoulder injury, but on the road against New England is not a spot to trust him regardless of his health.

Patriots Passing Attack

The matchup was extremely tough for Mac Jones and Co. against Dallas. They flopped badly, totaling 253 yards and three points. It also led to a quarterback change in the fourth quarter in favor of Bailey Zappe. The only bright spot was Hunter Henry, who led the team in every receiving category. Unfortunately, they host the Saints this week, who continue to be a poor matchup for tight ends, forcing everyone in their passing attack to your bench.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, NE)

There were a series of reports that came out on Sunday, many of which ended up being untrue. One of them was that Ezekiel Elliott would handle starter touches, which was not the case. Stevenson played more snaps, finished with more carries, and earned the same number of targets. It didn't make sense when it was released based on their play on the field. Regardless of his status as the starter, Stevenson has bigger issues, which are primarily centered around the inadequacies of the offense and the string of stout defenses they've faced. Additionally, his presence on the injury report with a thigh issue isn't ideal. He's not off the radar because of his role and opportunities but he moves outside the top 24.

Update: New England has listed Rhamondre Stevenson as questionable. Ezekiel Elliott would receive a fantasy up if Stevenson is out.

Rhamondre Stevenson Questionable For Week 5 https://t.co/cY6Rtj0MKM

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) October 6, 2023

Other Matchups

Alvin Kamara (RB, NO)

Kamara immediately assumed a workhorse role, playing 75% of the snaps. He was decent on the ground with 14 carries for 51 yards, but his incredible 14 targets were what propped up his value. What's more amazing is he set the record with only 33 yards on 13 receptions. The previous low was 70 yards. It's a difficult matchup and it's unlikely he will see that much passing work again, but his involvement will keep him in the top 24 with greater upside in full-PPR formats.

Saints WRs

Dividing eight receptions between three players is never going to work out well. Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed underperformed, but Chris Olave caught only one pass. The Patriots did lose their first-round CB, Christian Gonzalez, for the season, which opens things up for this group, but it's hard to trust Carr to get the ball downfield. Olave is too good to move off of completely, Thomas maintains a safer floor, and Shaheed is a boom-bust receiver I'd prefer to avoid.

Notable Injuries

Derek Carr (shoulder)
Jamaal Williams (hamstring)
Juwan Johnson (calf)
Rhamondre Stevenson (thigh)

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