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Fantasy football trade candidates to buy or sell for Week 5 of the 2023 NFL season. Jorden Hill lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
We are somehow already almost a quarter of the way through the 2023 NFL regular season. At this point, it should be fairly obvious how your fantasy team stacks up in comparison to the rest of your league. Even if you are 0-4, it's far too early to throw in the towel. Shift your focus from winning the fantasy championship to simply making it into the playoffs.
To turn things around, or maybe further separate yourself from the pack, you'll need to think one step ahead of your league mates and make some savvy moves. Fortunately, there are plenty of players who have been deceivingly good for fantasy purposes in recent weeks and others who should bounce back after disappointing starts. There's no time like the present to send out some offers that capitalize on these overvalued and undervalued assets.
Without further ado, let's take a look at two players that I'm targeting in fantasy football trades and two that I'm hoping to trade away while I still can. Keep in mind that every league values players differently, and always consider the other manager's needs before sending an offer!
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Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
As the fantasy RB11 in 2022, Rhamondre Stevenson seemed like a lock to finish as a top-10 back this season with Damien Harris now in Buffalo. The Patriots added Ezekiel Elliott in August, but this transaction did not have much of an effect on Stevenson's ADP as Elliott was coming off of his worst statistical campaign. Surprisingly, through the first four weeks of the season, the veteran has been much more efficient than Stevenson.
Stevenson is averaging just 2.73 yards per carry so far this year. He was effective as a pass-catcher in the Patriots' season opener but has since totaled six receptions for 23 yards. By contrast, the 25-year-old managed 4.95 yards per carry and more than four receptions per game in 2022.
After a Week 3 outing that saw Elliott turn 17 total touches into 87 yards, it was reported that he would receive "starter reps" against his former team in Week 4. Although Elliott played on a season-high 40 percent of offensive snaps, he was still far from the RB1 in New England.
#Patriots Week 4 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
Rhamondre Stevenson - 17
Ezekiel Elliott - 9— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) October 2, 2023
Of course, Stevenson's 17 opportunities didn't amount to much production against a stout Dallas defense. Because the score was 28-3 at halftime, Stevenson's usage may have been due to game script. Still, he was given every running back touch on the team's opening drive, which indicates that there was likely never a plan to give the reins to Elliott.
New England has been known for its tough defense in recent years, but it seems to have regressed on both sides of the ball this season. The Patriots are surrendering the 12th-most points per game so far in 2023 while scoring the third-fewest. This is the best possible recipe for Stevenson's playing time going forward.
A proven weapon in the receiving game, Stevenson earned 88 targets last season, a number that Elliott hasn't eclipsed since 2018. If the Patriots continue to find themselves trailing in contests, expect Stevenson to be utilized, especially given how weak New England's wide receiver corps is.
It's also worth noting that Stevenson has faced some difficult opponents to begin his third professional season as the Cowboys and Eagles currently represent the two least favorable matchups for fantasy running backs. Unfortunately, another challenge awaits in Week 5 as the Patriots will take on the New Orleans Saints, but their schedule is extremely enticing after that. Matchups against the Raiders, Bills, Dolphins, and Colts will all come before Stevenson's Week 11 bye.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins currently lead the league in points scored and passing yards, but somehow Jaylen Waddle has yet to find the end zone or surpass 100 receiving yards in a game. Tyreek Hill is incredible, Raheem Mostert has been electric, and De'Von Achane looks like the second coming of Chris Johnson.
Waddle missed Week 3 with a concussion but did not seem to be limited in any capacity in Week 4 as he played on 75 percent of Miami's offensive snaps. The fantasy output that many hoped for when they drafted Waddle in the second round has not been there, but all signs point to it coming soon.
In 2022, Waddle led the NFL in yards per catch with 17.9, and he's almost repeating that efficiency so far this season with 17.5 yards per reception. For what it's worth, this currently ranks eighth in the league and places Waddle five spots ahead of the aforementioned Hill.
While Hill is almost guaranteed to pace the Dolphins in targets, Waddle's target share so far this year does not reflect the player he has been throughout his career to this point. We should anticipate the former sixth-overall pick to see an increase in opportunities in the coming weeks, especially when he is so clearly the second receiving option in Miami's offense.
Dolphins routes run:
Tyreek Hill 31
Jaylen Waddle 30
De'Von Achane 26
Durham Smythe 25
Braxton Berrios 18
Raheem Mostert 14
Cedrick Wilson 12
Robbie Chosen 10
Alec Ingold 9— M.G. (@MarcasG) October 1, 2023
The Dolphins don't have an extremely favorable upcoming schedule. Waddle isn't going to supplant Hill as the team's primary weapon, and he also won't be a particularly consistent fantasy receiver. Trading for Waddle is a bet on talent and the explosive Miami offense. Waddle is going to be a bit boom-or-bust, just as he was last season, but the 24-year-old offers week-winning upside that very few other receivers possess. He's due for a big showing, so go get him for a discount before it's too late.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
Through the first three weeks of the season, things looked bleak for Khalil Herbert and the Chicago Bears. Herbert failed to record double-digit rushing attempts or finish inside the top-20 fantasy running backs in any contest. Then, he got to face the Denver Broncos.
In Week 4, Herbert went off for 122 total yards and a touchdown on 22 touches, scoring as the fantasy RB8. It was a welcome sight for anyone rostering him, and an unfortunate turn of events for Roschon Johnson hopefuls.
#Bears Week 4 RB Usage
- Khalil Herbert: 79% snaps, 18 carries, 23 routes, 5 targets (122 yds, TD)
- Roschon Johnson: 21% snaps, 5 carries, 7 routes, 1 target (15 yds)— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) October 1, 2023
There had been reports that Johnson's usage would increase after impressing with limited work early in the season. This idea did not come to fruition on Sunday, but Herbert's breakout performance does not necessarily give him long-term security. For the first time in 2023, the Bears found themselves up early and were able to rely on the running game. As I alluded to before, relying on the running game against the Broncos has been a successful formula so far this year.
Denver is surrendering over 40 half-PPR fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, by far the most in the NFL. Sure, the Broncos gave up 91 fantasy points to De'Von Achane and Raheem Mostert alone in Week 3, but Denver would still rank as a top-10 matchup for running backs when completely removing this embarrassment from the sample.
In other words, if there was a week to deploy Herbert in starting fantasy lineups, it was Week 4. He'll still be a flex option in the right matchups throughout the season, but fantasy gamers should remind themselves that the 0-4 Bears are unlikely to find themselves in positive game environments very often. Herbert is unlikely to see this volume of touches again soon, and an eventual emergence of the rookie Johnson is still possible.
I would try to sell high on this big performance and consider including Herbert in a package deal to get a significant upgrade.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton was drafted as the WR17 in 2022 as many predicted a breakout campaign with Russell Wilson under center. Sutton finished as the WR43. This season, Sutton was drafted as the WR41 but is shockingly the WR23 through four weeks.
The 27-year-old is leading Denver in targets and receptions, but his fantasy success can be attributed to his three touchdowns. The fact that he has found the end zone three times already is astonishing as Sutton scored just four touchdowns in his last two seasons combined. An encouraging improvement, sure, but Sutton has accomplished this against some of the league's worst pass defenses.
So far this season, the Broncos have faced the Raiders, Commanders, Dolphins, and Bears, all four of which rank amongst the 12 best matchups for fantasy wideouts. These defenses have surrendered a total of 22 touchdowns to receivers through the first four weeks of the season.
Sutton will have a much more difficult test in Week 5 against a New York Jets defense that has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. He'll then take on the Chiefs, Packers, and Chiefs again before his Week 9 bye. Kansas City and Green Bay have also done a great job at limiting receiver production so far this year.
Additionally, Jerry Jeudy, who missed Week 1 with a hamstring injury, should see his snaps and role in the offense increase in the coming weeks. Jeudy was Denver's most prolific weapon last season and showed glimpses of fantasy dominance down the stretch. The Broncos also added a receiver in the second round of this year's NFL Draft, and it's going to be difficult to keep him off the field after a red-hot start to his career.
#Broncos rookie WR Marvin Mims leads the team in receiving yards (242) and the NFL in yards per catch (26.9).
A certified ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/uqkMLNmSFB
— Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) October 2, 2023
It might take Marvin Mims Jr. a few more weeks to establish himself as a key piece in Denver's offense, but the talent is undeniably there. With increased target competition and an intimidating upcoming schedule, fantasy managers should make it a priority to trade Sutton away now.
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