Fantasy Football Week 5 Busts? Players Who May Disappoint Include Dak Prescott, Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Calvin Ridley

Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 5 of the 2023 season? Andrew Ball identifies potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid for for this upcoming week.

A couple of weeks ago, a friend messaged and jokingly scolded me for listing half of his roster in my busts column. It wasn't a jab at him. We weren't even matched up that week. The busts were based on matchups and advanced metrics, and not overall performance on the season.

Many fantasy managers are dealing with the latter. As we enter Week 5, we're starting to separate the weekly bust candidates from the guys who look like they aren't going to have good seasons at all. Kyle Pitts, Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow, Dalvin Cook, and Brandin Cooks are some of the names that fall into that category. Those names, if the status quo remains, won't be listed here (although there is the hope that Burrow gets healthy at some point this year).

As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 5, make sure potential fantasy landmines stay on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 5 of the NFL season.

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Trevor Lawrence at Buffalo (in London)

The Jacksonville Jaguars 2023 offense was pegged to be the next unstoppable force. Trevor Lawrence is in his third season, Travis Etienne Jr. and Tank Bigsby bring different skill sets to the backfield, and Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram give Lawrence a plethora of strong receiving options.

The fireworks are still waiting to be lit, however. The young quarterback has tossed just one touchdown per game on the season. They're middle-of-the-pack when it comes to pass plays of over 20 yards and total yards as well. The unit ranks 20th in points per game at an even 20.

The league's best offense, the Miami Dolphins, was hampered by the Buffalo Bills' defense in Week 4. Head coach Sean McDermott's unit allows the least amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. On average, signal-callers score 7.57 fantasy points against the Bills. That number is actually inflated by the 13.9 points scored by Tua Tagovailoa last week.

A quarterback on a strong offense will have an uphill battle against this pass defense, even with the loss of cornerback Tre'Davious White. Jacksonville, right now, is not a strong offense.

Dak Prescott at San Francisco

Just like Lawrence, Dak Prescott is also averaging just one touchdown per game in the 2023 campaign. Some of that has to do with the Cowboys' defense creating blowouts so Prescott doesn't need to throw to win. But even in the one game he did need to put the ball in the air, the numbers didn't elevate.

At this point in the season, scoring touchdowns from the red zone has been the Achilles heel for Dallas. More often than not, they've settled for field goals, failed to convert a fourth-down conversion, or turned the ball over.

Prescott's matchup against San Francisco boasts two of the top three defenses in the NFL. The 49ers are only allowing just over 14 points per game. If Prescott is struggling to score touchdowns against the likes of Arizona and New England, paydirt will be hard to come by in the Bay Area. Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud are safer options for Week 5.

Najee Harris vs. Baltimore

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren hasn't topped 12.6 PPR fantasy points in any game this season. Warren has outscored Najee Harris in PPR formats in every game this season.

The former first-round pick is coming off his best game of the season, topping 100 total yards for the first time. His 4.3 yards per attempt on the season tops the marks of 3.9 and 3.8 over his first two years. But 52.5 yards per game is a steep decline from previous seasons. Four total catches are also bringing his fantasy numbers, the most important stat, down.

Harris hasn't scored a touchdown through four games, and if trends tell us anything, he won't score again in Week 5. The Baltimore Ravens' rush defense has not allowed a touchdown on the ground this season. The unit also ranks in the top seven in yards per carry and total rushing yards.

Miles Sanders at Detroit

$25 million across four years is a pretty penny for a running back averaging under three yards per carry on the season. It's not all on Miles Sanders, though. The ex-Eagle is dealing with a groin injury that he suffered in training camp and reaggravated prior to the Panthers' Week 4 contest against Minnesota. He rushed 13 times for 19 yards and played a season-low 43% of the snaps in that game.

Third-year back Chuba Hubbard received a majority of the backfield work for Carolina. He's looked like the better running back, not just in Week 4, but for most of the season. The Panthers may have the least explosive collection of playmakers in the NFL. Any sort of juice they find from a running back or wide receiver is sorely needed.

Outside of the threat of losing touches to Hubbard, Sanders and the Panthers are heading to Detroit in Week 5. The Lions' defensive line has been dominant in both the run and pass games. They rank second in the league in yards per carry (3.0) and first in total rushing yards allowed. If you haven't already done so, make room for Sanders on your bench.

Zack Moss / Jonathan Taylor vs. Tennessee

The 2021 rushing leader is nearing his return. Maybe.

Jonathan Taylor's practice window is open and the star is practicing in full as he prepares to possibly make his season debut. There are still a lot of question marks about whether Taylor wants to play another snap for the Colts. But for now, he's still on the roster and could play in Week 5.

Zack Moss has performed admirably in Taylor's absence. The ex-Bill is eighth in PPR scoring in Weeks 2 through 4 following his return from a broken arm. He's played over 85% of the snaps and Trey Sermon only received a handful of touches to spell the starter.

Fantasy managers shouldn't expect that kind of division in the backfield when Taylor returns. Moss was receiving nearly all of the touches out of necessity. The Colts will probably want to ease Taylor back into action. He hasn't played a complete game since Week 13 of last season and the complications from his ankle injury bled into the new year.

The duo face a stifling Tennessee run defense in Week 5. The Titans are allowing the fewest yards per carry in the league and the threat of Anthony Richardson stealing goal-line touchdowns remains. Taylor isn't a sit if he returns and Moss isn't one either if Taylor rests another week. Just temper your expectations, especially if both are active on Sunday.

Rhamondre Stevenson vs. New Orleans

Sometimes it's fun to reflect on your life and laugh about the times you panicked when it wasn't necessary.

That was the report Sunday morning as the Patriots geared up to face Ezekiel Elliott's former team. Stevenson managers went into a frenzy, wondering if they should sit the 25-year-old. Instead, Stevenson got all the work he normally handles -- 16 touches in a blowout loss. The third-year back has 18 touches or more in the other three games this season but efficiency has not been his friend. Stevenson has zero breakaway runs (15 yards or more) on the season. In 2022, he had 15, which ranked sixth in the league.

The Patriots are in the bottom three in points per game on the season (13.8) and the Saints' defense ranks in the top 10 in points allowed per game (19). This will be an ugly, low-scoring affair which makes avoiding any Patriot an easy choice.

Calvin Ridley at Buffalo (in London)

Prior to his extended absence from the NFL, Calvin Ridley excelled against press-man coverage. Through his first four weeks as a member of the Jaguars, he's done the opposite. Ridley struggled when Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell pressed him in Week 4. His only notable play of the day came on busted coverage.

Buffalo runs press-man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Ridley is averaging 1.68 yards per route run, which ranks 44th among all wide receivers.

In Week 1, Ridley snagged eight passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. Fantasy pundits across the globe, including myself, admitted to being too low on him during the preseason. Since then, he's been largely uninvolved in an offense that, as stated above, hasn't taken the next step into elite status.

If we look at usage and target rate, Christian Kirk is the WR1 on this team. We'll see how targets play out if and when Zay Jones (knee) returns to the lineup. Other receivers like Brandon Aiyuk, Terry McLaurin, and Marquise Brown should be started over Ridley.

Courtland Sutton vs. New York Jets

The New York Jets passing defense is an interesting case. They're middle of the pack when it comes to passing yards allowed on the season, despite elite cornerback play from Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed. However, they're allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Four out of their five passing touchdowns allowed have gone to tight ends (Jake Ferguson, Luke Schoonmaker, Pharaoh Brown, and Noah Gray).

Stefon Diggs garnered over 100 yards and scored. CeeDee Lamb did the same, without a touchdown. The next highest receiving yards by any wide receiver against the Jets is Kendrick Bourne with 46 yards.

Russell Wilson is quietly putting together a resurgent season. He's sitting at QB9 on the year, constantly playing catch-up as the Denver defense allows touchdown after touchdown. He's supporting Sutton, who hasn't scored in the single digits in PPR formats in any game this season. Sutton isn't in the same tier as Diggs and Lamb, but is also definitively better than Bourne and Rice. Take the matchup into account and view the Bronco as a low-end WR3.

Michael Thomas at New England

By all accounts, Michael Thomas' career looked to be in the can after two subpar seasons sandwiching an entire year missed due to injury. The 30-year-old has shown consistency in 2023, finishing every game between 50 and 61 yards. His worst PPR performance came last week when he caught four passes for 53 yards.

In that game, the top wide receiver in New Orleans, Chris Olave, caught one pass on six targets. That's highly unlikely to happen again. Rashid Shaheed led wideouts in targets (seven). Shaheed's 4.71 yards per target were significantly down from his average of 15.29 coming into the matchup against Tampa Bay. Alvin Kamara caught 13 passes for 33 yards on 14 targets. The low yardage total set a record that Kamara doesn't want.

The point of all of those stats is that Derek Carr is hurting to throw the ball downfield with his shoulder injury. The veteran quarterback was limited in practice on Wednesday but is planning to suit up and start again on Sunday. A wounded Carr isn't helping any pass catcher right now, outside of Kamara in PPR formats. Thomas hasn't scored a touchdown this season, and likely won't against New England, even with pass rusher Matthew Judon (biceps) and rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) out of the lineup.

Jameson Williams vs. Carolina

This is the part of the column where I advise you to not buy into the hype based on the name alone. In this exact spot last week, first-round draft selection Quentin Johnston was listed. The former TCU standout was receiving an elevated opportunity with the injury to Mike Williams. It was advised that you stash Johnston to wait and see how he takes advantage, or doesn't, of his chance.

Jameson Williams is another former first-round pick, one year prior to Johnston. Since then, he's dealt with recovery from an ACL tear that occurred in college, low snap counts, a hamstring injury, and a suspension stemming from gambling at a team facility.

Still, he was drafted 12th overall and has yet to show his potential. Fantasy managers want to have him on their rosters if and when that breakout hits. He may break a big play on Sunday against Carolina but it will come on a limited number of snaps. Think of the role Kalif Raymond has for the Lions right now. That's Jameson Williams.

"If he does play, he can't play 60 plays. That's not smart. So we can't do that to him." - Dan Campbell, Detroit Lions Head Coach

Williams is worthy of a spot on your bench to see how he develops on one of the highest-scoring offenses in football. But do not be tempted by the big name and his potential.

Hunter Henry vs. New Orleans

Once again, Kyle Pitts (and now Dallas Goedert and Darren Waller) won't be listed here as the trio have become busts on the season. Goedert and Waller have a better chance to become a contributor to your lineup and Pitts is, quite honestly, a drop candidate. But I digress.

We're here to talk about Hunter Henry, who had a decent game last week (four catches for 51 yards) after being listed in this column. That was good for TE18 in PPR formats. After being the TE2 through the first two weeks of the season, Henry has fallen off when tasked with navigating tougher defenses (although the Jets actually rank at the bottom of points allowed to tight ends).

Henry faces team number four on the list, the New Orleans Saints, in Week 5. Opposing defenses aren't threatened by any wide receivers on the field for New England and can focus their gameplans around stopping the tight ends, Henry and Mike Gesicki. Jake Ferguson, Zach Ertz, and Dalton Kincaid all have higher upsides than Henry this week.

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