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Who bet the Dolphins vs. Broncos game to go over 48.5 points last week? Good call, everyone. That was also my top over/under pick of the week. The Dolphins hit it all by themselves in the third quarter.
I went 3-0 on over/under picks last week. My other calls were the Vikings vs. Chargers game going under an absurdly high 54 and the Raiders and Steelers together failing to hit 43. This season has been relatively balanced for over/under picks. Twelve teams have seen most of their games go over the spread, and twenty are more inclined to go under. Last season, only five teams were involved in going over in over 50% of the games, and five more went over 50% of the time.
This week, I am picking the over in my featured game again. The high-powered San Francisco 49ers offense has a favorable matchup to put up points against the Arizona Cardinals. Read on to see all of my Week 4 NFL best bets.
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Week 4 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Last Week: 1-0 on Moneyline, 1-1 Against the Spread, 3-0 on Over/Under Picks
Season-long Record: 2-1 on Moneyline, 3-5 Against the Spread, 5-0 on Over/Under Picks
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans (CIN -2.5)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 41
The Bengals defense is starting to look better. In Week 3 against the Los Angeles Rams, the Bengals achieved an 84.3 pass-rush grade after only grading in the 50s in the first two weeks. Five Bengals recorded sacks, including two for Trey Hendrickson. The Rams' offensive line was one of the worst in the league in preseason rankings, and Hendrickson was dominating backup left tackle Zach Thomas, who allowed five pressures.
The Titans offensive line is also one of the worst in the league. While Tennessee's line overperformed in Weeks 1 and 2, they still only rank 30th in PFF's Week 4 OL rankings. Titans left tackle Andre Dillard has been getting destroyed this season. He's allowed six sacks and ten total pressures in the past three games. Ryan Tannehill is one of the worst quarterbacks under pressure. He has a 38.1% completion percentage, zero touchdowns, two interceptions, and a 10.3 passer rating when pressured.
The Titans are not a particularly good team at home despite having won their one home game so far this year. Last season, the Titans went 3-8 at home.
Pick: Bengals ML (-148), Bet 1 Unit
Week 4 NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts (IND -1)
Sunday, 1:00 pm | O/U: 46.5
The Bengals defense came to life against the talent-deprived Rams offensive line last week. The Rams also suffered in-game injuries against the Bengals, making their line even worse than it was. Rams left tackle Alaric Jackson did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday, so the Rams might have to start Zach Thomas again.
The Colts have been graded as the eight-best pass-rush team this season, so they will have a significant advantage against the Rams.
Besides their poor offensive line, the Rams' offense has been overperforming preseason expectations. Their wide receivers, especially Puka Nacua, look like they are truly as talented as their numbers suggest. Puka can get open and get yards after the catch. But running back Kyren Williams, despite having had fantasy value due to his three rushing touchdowns in the first two weeks, is subpar. He is only averaging 3.6 yards per carry.
Colts QB Anthony Richardson is back at practice, and he will lead a dynamic Titans rush-heavy attack that will upset the Rams and win outright.
Pick: Colts +1
Others:
Bengals -2.5 over Titans
Not only will the Bengals beat the Titans, they will win big. They just need to win by three.
Chiefs -9.5 over Jets
The Chiefs are playing up to their level now. Taylor Swift brings her magic to the Chiefs. The Jets' defense is supposed to be elite, but it really isn't. Their pass rush is only ranked No. 14. They caused 16 pressures but no sacks last week against Mac Jones. Their pass coverage is considerably better, but as long as Patrick Mahomes has time, he will find open receivers and dice up the Jets defense.
Week 4 NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, 4:25 pm | O/U: 44.5
The 49ers have a 3-0 record of scoring 30 points in a game. The Cardinals have scored over 14 points in all three of their games, including 28 points in each of the past two. The 49ers are allowing an average of 14.0 points per game.
The 49ers are probably the best defense the Cardinals have faced, but they have allowed 12 or more points in the past two games. The Giants scored 12 on the 49ers, but they are only averaging 14.3 points per game. The Cardinals are averaging 24.0 points per game.
Arizona's offense is actually not bad. Joshua Dobbs is a good game manager, and he can rip off some big passes to Marquise "Hollywood" Brown and Michael Wilson when he needs to. Just watch the 49ers win this game 30-14, and I lose by 0.5 points. But, more likely, the 49ers will finally break their 30-point ceiling, and the Cardinals might add a field goal to two touchdowns.
Pick: Over 44.5 Points, Bet 1 Unit
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