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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 9/29/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, September 29, 2023.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 71-55-5 (-0.18 units)
I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter/X @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Red Sox @ Orioles
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: BAL -148
BOS: Nick Pivetta | BAL: John Means
I'll start things off down in Baltimore. Last night was "clinch night" in Baltimore, who locked up the AL East and number one seed in the AL Playoffs with a 2-0 win.
It'll be Nick Pivetta taking the ball for the Red Sox tonight. Pivetta (9-9, 4.25 ERA) will likely make his final start of the season. He's been a bit unlucky this season, bringing a 4.05 xERA, 3.65 xFIP, and a projected 3.51 SIERA into this one. He'll take on an Orioles lineup that projects to just a .306 wOBA against him tonight. Baltimore hits him fairly well, but who knows who will be in their lineup tonight?
It'll be John Means (1-1, 2.60 ERA) making just his fourth start of the season for the O's in this one. It truly is remarkable how Baltimore has gone on this crazy run this season with their "ace" on the shelf for most of the year. Means has pitched relatively well in his first three starts. However, albeit in a small sample size, Means brings in a 4.94 xERA, 6.20 xFIP, and a projected 6.25 SIERA tonight against a Red Sox lineup that projects to a .334 wOBA.
Congratulations to the Orioles, but they now officially have nothing to play for until the ALDS. I'll back the Sox in the Orioles' "hangover game", as we can get them at +126 on FanDuel.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline (+126), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 1.26 units.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Athletics @ Angels
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAA -130
OAK: Ken Waldichuk | LAA: Chase Silseth
I'll head out to Orange County for my second play of the night as the A's and Angels open up a weekend set.
The visiting A's will send southpaw Ken Waldichuk (4-8, 5.29 ERA) to the mound. Waldichuk was quite a bit unlucky this year (4.65 xERA, 4.99 xFIP), but I don't think he'll close out his season in a very lucky manner. He projects to a 4.47 SIERA tonight against a rather shorthanded Angels lineup, but they project to a .329 wOBA against him.
Chase Silseth (4-1, 4.10 ERA) will take the ball for the Halos in what will likely be his final start of 2023. The 23-year-old righty has been pretty darn good for Los Angeles this season, bringing in a 4.20 xERA and 3.86 xFIP. He's only made one appearance against Oakland this season, tossing two scoreless innings while striking out two, but also walking two. He projects to a 3.95 SIERA tonight against an Athletics lineup that projects to just a .314 wOBA tonight.
I really don't want to bet on a game that means nothing, but there are rather slim pickings on this slate in my opinion. I think we are seeing some good value here, so I'll back the Angels at -130 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Pick: Angels Moneyline (-130), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit to win 0.77 units.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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