NFL Pick 'Em Pool Picks (Week 3) - Targets, Avoids, Predictions for Pickem Contests

Once is happenstance. Twice is a coincidence. Three is a pattern. We're learning more and more about these 32 football teams as the weeks go by but we still have a little bit to go before we really grasp a sense of the power rankings. There is a bevy of teams favored by a touchdown or more in Week 3, making things a little more clear while the patterns develop.

Each week of the NFL season, I’ll share my picks for each game, and rank the selections for those who play in a format that requires it. The games will be grouped into locks, semi-confident picks, and toss-ups. The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The winner picks are italicized.

Some weeks you may see a subcategory of “Wait and See” because some platforms require all games to be selected before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football. Injury question marks for Sunday and Monday games may still be hanging. If that’s the case, I’ll leave those games off to the side and suggest where they should be placed if a player suits up or not. Without further ado, let’s jump into our locks of the week.

Week 3 NFL Pick 'Em Pool Locks

The number listed next to the game shows my confidence level, counting down to my least-confident pick. The higher the number, the better. The winner picks are italicized.

• 16 - Kansas City vs. Chicago
• 15 - Dallas at Arizona
• 14 - San Francisco vs. New York Giants
• 13 - Miami vs. Denver
• 12 - Jacksonville vs. Houston
• 11 - Buffalo at Washington

The Kansas City Chiefs host the lowly Chicago Bears on Sunday, who are coming off consecutive double-digit losses to the Packers and the Buccaneers. The Dallas Cowboys should have no problem stopping the Cardinals’ offense despite a 28-point performance in Week 2. Dallas has only surrendered ten points so far on the season. The San Francisco 49ers host the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football, who will be without star running back Saquon Barkley (ankle).

Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars struggled offensively against the Chiefs on Sunday but should have no problem moving the ball against Houston. Despite an injury to Anthony Richardson, the Colts just dropped 31 points on the Texans. The Miami Dolphins will host the Denver Broncos in their home opener, who just got picked apart on defense by Sam Howell and the Washington Commanders. Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill should feast. 

The Bills travel south to Landover, Maryland to take on the 2-0 Commanders. Washington hasn’t sold me on their success yet, beating both Denver and Arizona by a combined six points. Josh Allen looked like the quarterback we all know in Week 2, after turning the ball over four times in Week 1 against the New York Jets.

Semi-Confident Picks For Week 3 Pick 'Em Pools

10 - Seattle vs. Carolina

Update: Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (ankle) is not expected to play Sunday. Andy Dalton is slated to start.

Is Seattle good or not? Losing winnable games is something this Seattle team has done often. In 2022, they lost to a bad Raiders team at home in overtime just weeks after beating the Los Angeles Chargers on the road by two touchdowns.

This season, the Seahawks were 4.5-point favorites against Los Angeles and lost. They were 4.5-point underdogs against Detroit and won. For Week 3, Pete Carroll's team is a 6.5-point favorite at home against Carolina.

The Seahawks' pass defense has been like Swiss cheese through two games (650 yards allowed ranks third-worst in the league). This game may be a little closer than expected, but Seattle should take care of business at home. If they don't, chalk it up to another case of inconsistency.

9 - Philadelphia at Tampa Bay

The Philadelphia Eagles have the most dominant defensive line in football but their secondary is looking suspect due to injuries. Slot corner Avonte Maddox has a torn pectoral muscle and could be on the shelf for the season. James Bradberry missed Week 2 with a concussion but should be available in Week 3

Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones both threw for over 300 yards against the Eagles secondary this season. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin running routes, Baker Mayfield may also throw the football with ease. Still, the Eagles have a deep and talented roster and should ride Jalen Hurts and the offense to a victory.

8 - Baltimore vs. Indianapolis

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is in the concussion protocol and it remains to be seen whether he'll play in Week 3 or not. Regardless, the Ravens are over a touchdown favorite against Indy. Lamar Jackson looked far more comfortable throwing the ball against the Bengals than he did in Week 1 against Houston. Tight end Mark Andrews being on the field surely played a part but he also got other receivers involved.

Gardner Minshew played a clean game when filling in for Richardson but has been inconsistent in his NFL career. If he is called upon for Week 3, we may see a completely different Minshew under center. He does, after all, have an 8-16 record as a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Wait And See For Week 3

7 - Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals won't start the 2023 season with two losses again, right? - Andrew Ball, RotoBaller.com

That was me last week in this exact column. So I ask, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals won’t start the 2023 season with three losses, right? They might.

Burrow reaggravated his calf injury during the Week 2 loss to the Baltimore Ravens and still hasn’t looked like himself. Coach Zac Taylor says he's unsure if Burrow will be able to play on Monday Night Football. Jake Browning, who has thrown one NFL pass, would be the next in line.

The Rams are much better than popular opinion gave them credit for heading into this season. Rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua is playing the role of Cooper Kupp as well as Cooper Kupp did through the first two weeks. Kyren Williams is giving Sean McVay a playmaker out of the backfield.

Wait and see what Burrow's status is before selecting this game. If he plays, move this down to number three on the rankings list. The Rams may still win with Burrow playing, but it makes it significantly closer.

NFL Pick 'Em Toss-Up Of Week 3

6 - Tennessee at Cleveland

The loss of Nick Chubb alters the entire identity of the Cleveland offense. The Browns are 3-4 in games the four-time Pro Bowler missed since he became the full-time starter in 2019. Back then, they had Kareem Hunt (and even a career game for D'Ernest Johnson) to fill in. Now, it's Jerome Ford's job and his rushing average is, let's just say, suboptimal. Or, at least it was until he broke a long run in the third quarter of Monday Night Football.

Through two games, the Tennessee Titans have allowed opposing rushers just 2.7 yards per attempt for a total of 130 rushing yards.

Deshaun Watson will be tasked with being the star on offense now but he hasn't had a good game since he became a member of the Browns. On Monday Night Football, he couldn't lead Cleveland past Pittsburgh, turning the ball over four times. The Steelers' defense scored on two of those turnovers.

5 - New Orleans at Green Bay

Counting back to Week 15 of 2022, the highest yardage total the Saints defense has surrendered is 320 yards, and an average of 12.6 points allowed in the five games. They just kept Bryce Young and Co. out of the endzone for over 58 minutes of game time and did not let Tennessee score a touchdown in Week 1.

Derek Carr just needs to be average for the defense to carry the Saints to a win. He's been a much worse quarterback when playing on the road in his career. He's 29-44 as a starter away from Oakland, Las Vegas, and New Orleans in his career and a game over .500 at home.

Packers quarterback Jordan Love could again be without wide receiver Christian Watson and running back Aaron Jones. If that's the case, Green Bay may struggle to drive down the field.

4 - Detroit vs. Atlanta

Arthur Smith and the Atlanta Falcons keep winning games against the conventional play of NFL offenses. In Week 2, they dominated time of possession (over 36 minutes) and ran the ball 45 times, despite playing from behind from the second quarter until less than a minute left in regulation. Their defense is strong, holding the Packers to 224 total yards.

That used to be the way to win the NFL, combining a strong defense with a smash mouth running attack. Trends come and go, will that style of play make a comeback? It seems doubtful with the way the league has altered the rules to benefit offensive passing games.

The Lions' run defense has been surprisingly sturdy dating back to last season. In their last nine games, opposing teams have rushed for 119 yards per game, a number that is inflated by Justin Fields rushing for 132 yards in Week 17. In the two games in 2023, the Lions are surrendering 3.7 yards per carry. Kenneth Walker III only mustered 43 yards on 17 carries in Week 2. I'm picking the Lions to slow down Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.

3 - New England at New York Jets

Coach Robert Saleh may have confidence in quarterback Zach Wilson but the tape shows a frightening story. The former second-overall pick tossed three interceptions to the Cowboys on Sunday. He also threw one more against Buffalo. Wilson's grand total of four picks is a league-leading statistic.

Things won’t get easier for Wilson, who now will have to face the Patriots defense. Bill Belichick knows how to make things difficult on the young quarterback. In four games against the division foe, Wilson has a completion percentage of just over 50 percent and seven interceptions to just two touchdowns.

This will be an ugly game for both offenses. The over/under line is the lowest on the 16-game slate.

2 - Pittsburgh at Las Vegas

Both Las Vegas and Pittsburgh have a win on their record but neither team has passed the eye test so far this season. After winning Week 1 against Denver, the Raiders looked completely outmatched against Buffalo in Week 2. The Steelers looked outmatched in Week 1 but their defense stepped up in Week 2 against Cleveland.

Behind the roar of the home crowd against a divisional foe in primetime, T.J. Watt and the Steelers defense forced the Browns to turn the ball over four times. They are playing in Las Vegas but Steelers fans travel extremely well and won't miss their first opportunity to see the Black and Gold in Sin City. This may sound more like a home game than an away game.

1 - Minnesota vs. Los Angeles Chargers

One of these teams with high-powered offenses and postseason aspirations is going to start the season 0-3 (unless, of course, they tie). Los Angeles has lost both of their contests by a combined five points. The Vikings lost to Tampa Bay by three in their opener and six against Philadelphia on Thursday Night Football.

Both quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins and Justin Herbert, can throw for over 300 yards on any given day and both defenses are susceptible to giving up chunk plays in the passing game.

Points should be scored by the bunches in this matchup. The over/under line is the highest on the week by a wide margin. Even oddsmakers in Las Vegas are unsure which way this game will go, listing it as a pick ‘em when lines were released. The Chargers were slight favorites (-1) as of this writing.

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