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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings - Bills vs. Jets showdown slate on 9/11/2023. His Monday Night Football daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! We're back with our first Monday Night Football showdown article of the year! How exciting of a time is it? I hope your team saw great success yesterday, as we all want to kick back, relax, and enjoy this interdivisional football game as the Buffalo Bills head to the same place we watched Sunday Night Football last night, New Jersey, to take on the Jets.
We have been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues from last year into this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around and it's always a shame for it to come to an end. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bills vs. jets NFL DFS showdown slate on September 11. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Josh Allen - QB, $17,100 (DK), $17,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 4,899 passing yards, 808 rushing yards, 46 total touchdowns, 23 total turnovers
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA: 26.3%
- Projected Opposing Defense Pass DVOA:
I'll start tonight's slate off with Josh Allen, and why not? Despite the turnover issues, Allen performed well in 2022. He and his team battled for the one-seed in the AFC and fell short in the divisional round of the playoffs. Nevertheless, I'll look for Allen to have a strong 2023, starting off tonight where my model projects him to throw for just about 245 yards and 1.5 touchdowns while adding 37 rushing yards and 0.38 touchdowns.
Garrett Wilson - WR, $16,200 (DK), $16,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 147 targets, 83 receptions, 1,103 receiving yards, four touchdowns
It's insane to realize that Wilson had just over a 50% catch rate in 2022. A lot of that had to do with quarterback play, which the Jets can positively say won't be an issue now. Wilson now gets to play with one of the best to ever do it, Aaron Rodgers. It's never an easy task to take on the Bills' vaunted defense, but my model projects Wilson to haul in 5.38 of his 8.53 targets tonight for 70.32 yards and 0.43 touchdowns.
Other Captains/MVPs: Aaron Rodgers, Stefon Diggs
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DFS Flex Plays
Stefon Diggs - WR, $10,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 172 targets, 119 receptions, 1,578 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns.
I'll look at one of Allen's pass-catchers first in the flex slot, wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Diggs is now entering his fourth season as a Bill and is looking to have a big-time year by logging his sixth straight 1,000+ yard season. He'll line up against Sauce Gardner tonight, and projects to 5.68 receptions on 8.98 targets for 67 yards and 0.44 touchdowns.
Aaron Rodgers - QB, $6,400 (DK), $11,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,695 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 12 interceptions
- Projected Offensive Pass DVOA:
- Projected Opposing Defense Pass DVOA:
I briefly spoke about Rodgers when talking about Garrett Wilson, and I would be more than happy to pair this stack together tonight. Rodgers had his first 10+ interception season in 11 years, and I can't imagine 2023 will be a repeat of that. Going to the Jets seems like somewhat of a renaissance for Rodgers, and my model has him throwing 1.3 touchdowns and 230.45 yards tonight. He's not captain/MVP-level in this one, but he is a solid option in the flex spot.
Other Flex Options: Allen Lazard, Breece Hall, Gabriel Davis
DFS Value Plays
Dalton Kincaid - TE, $5,000 (DK), $9,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: None
A lot of people were surprised when the Bills selected Dalton Kincaid with the 25th pick of April's draft. Kincaid should make an immediate impact despite the presence of veteran Dawson Knox. I like both Kincaid and Knox on tonight's slate (not in the same lineup), but I have Kincaid catching 3.21 of his 4.6 targets for 34.6 yards and 0.26 touchdowns.
Tyler Conklin - TE, $4,800 (DK), $7,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 87 targets, 58 receptions, 552 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
I'll wrap things up with a tight end on the other side of the field in Tyler Conklin. I was a bit surprised that Conklin saw 87 targets in 2022, and actually put up pretty impressive numbers relative to the play under center for the Jets last season. Conklin serves as somewhat of a safety-blanket role in this Jets offense and I think he could have a pretty solid night, even better than his projected 2.73 receptions for 23.39 yards.
Other Value Plays: Dawson Knox, Damien Harris, Jets D/ST, Tyler Bass
Enjoy your week and good luck, everyone!
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