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With NFL kickoff just around the corner and draft season being in full effect, it’s important to identify potential busts in fantasy football to avoid when on the clock.
To be clear about what classifies a player as a fantasy football “bust,” it is not saying that they will have a bad season by any means. Rather, they will simply not perform up to their current Average Draft Position (ADP).
Today, I’m going to be talking about three different wide receivers that I believe will not play up to where they are being taken in drafts. All ADPs are based on Underdog’s rankings as of September 2, 2023.
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DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
ADP: 29.1, WR16
I am very bullish on Seattle's offense as a whole this season. However, DK Metcalf is the one that I would least likely take in drafts from that receiving core strictly because of how early he is going. When drafting a receiver in the early middle of the third round, you want WR1 upside and every-week consistency from them. I am not completely confident in this from Metcalf.
The Seattle Seahawks attempted more passes in 2022 with Geno Smith than they ever did in the 10 seasons with Russell Wilson at QB. Despite this and the fact that Metcalf led the team with 141 targets and a 25% target share, the Ole Miss product finished 18th in terms of total fantasy points among WRs.
Metcalf is still going in the third round and ahead of guys like Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. I would much rather have all four of them to Metcalf, especially at their ADPs. The fact that he is going 30 spots ahead of Tyler Lockett is ridiculous. Lockett has finished ahead of Metcalf in terms of fantasy PPG in three out of the four seasons he has been in the league. Lockett has shown no signs of regression and I would much rather skip on Metcalf and take the veteran three rounds later.
The addition of slot specialist Jaxon Smith-Njigba will also have a significant impact on Metcalf’s targets. JSN is an incredible separator and will earn targets immediately in Seattle’s offense. While I do still expect a solid season from Metcalf very similar to his 2022 outing, I do not think he is worth it at his current ADP and would much rather take the other guys around him.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
ADP: 39.7, WR21
Christian Watson showcased his playmaking and big-play ability during his rookie season, getting into the end zone eight times in the span of just four games. The 24-year-old receiver earned the trust of Aaron Rodgers as the season progressed and thrived while doing so.
With Rodgers gone and Jordan Love stepping in, Watson and this offense as a whole are question marks, to say the least. The receiver out of North Dakota State is a superb athlete and can make plays like no other. However, it may be very difficult for him to maintain consistency with a QB as inexperienced as Love managing the offense.
Watson is currently being drafted ahead of Mike Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, and Tyler Lockett. I think all five of those guys have significantly higher floors and still have a relatively high ceiling.
If Watson drops to the fifth round or so and all those guys are off the board, I would take a shot at him. Anything earlier than that is risky considering the wide range of outcomes that Green Bay’s offense has.
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
ADP: 78.1, WR40
Michael Pittman Jr. had 141 targets in 16 games this past season. Despite averaging six receptions and almost nine targets per game, Pittman still fell short of the 1000-yard mark and got in the end zone just four times. This was on an Indianapolis offense that threw the ball the eighth-most in the entire league.
The Colts brought in Anthony Richardson with the fourth-overall pick of the 2023 draft and he will start for them Week 1. While I do believe that Richardson has absurd potential and will be a great QB once he develops, he will struggle a ton throwing the ball early on. Richardson was not an efficient passer in college and will have to work to improve that in order for this team to get to where they want to be.
Pittman also averaged the fewest yards per reception of any wide receiver with over 70 targets at just 9.3 in 2022. I don’t expect this or his average depth of target to go up much with an undeveloped rookie QB and a below-average offensive line.
The USC product is currently being drafted ahead of Brandin Cooks, Quentin Johnston, Courtland Sutton, Skyy Moore, Elijah Moore, Treylon Burks, and Kadarius Toney. While Pittman may have a higher floor and be safer than some of these guys, I believe all of them have higher ceilings and are worth the risk, especially considering that you can get them later in drafts.
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