RADIO
Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 4 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 08/01/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.
The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game along with a score prediction and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
It was an enthralling weekend of EPL action and we have another full set of fixtures before the international break next weekend. We missed out on bagging our fourth parlay of the season when Newcastle conceded two late goals against ten-man Liverpool on Sunday but we're still having a solid start to the season.
We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on Twitter (@LucidMediaDFS, @PhilOfSports, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.
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Friday, September 01, 2023
Luton Town (+330) vs. West Ham United (-125) - 3:00 pm ET
Score prediction: Luton Town 1 - 2 West Ham United
Luton's home return to the Premier League was delayed but it'll be a party atmosphere at Kenilworth Road on Friday. Having lost their opening two games, they will be eager to get something from this but I fear they fall short. West Ham's impressive start sees them with seven points and wins against Chelsea and Brighton. Their attack should be too much for the EPL newcomers to handle.
FPL Pick: James Ward-Prowse
Two assists and a goal in his first two games with his new club have Ward-Prowse as one of the hottest commodities in FPL. We know his set-piece ability and in an advanced role, he could shine again on Friday.
3 - James Ward-Prowse (1 goal, 2 assists) is the third West Ham player to be directly involved in 3+ goals in their first two Premier League appearances for the club, after David Di Michele and Thomas Hitzlsperger. Blocks. pic.twitter.com/jEOtKzZWUM
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) August 26, 2023
Saturday, September 02, 2023
Sheffield United (+200) vs. Everton (+145) - 7:30 am ET
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 1 Everton
Even at this early stage of the season, this game feels like it will have big relegation ramifications. Sheffield United came close to picking up a memorable point against Manchester City but ultimately lost and is still searching for their first point of the season. Everton are also pointless and remains the only team in the league yet to score a goal.
FPL Pick: Gustavo Hamer
Hamer almost helped Coventry City gain promotion to the Premier League last season. His nine goals and 11 assists took them to the playoffs and were enough for Sheffield United to part ~$18M for the midfielder. He scored on his debut and his attacking play will be crucial if Sheffield United are to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.
Brentford (-140) vs. Bournemouth (+350) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 1 Bournemouth
Brentford remain unbeaten this season but their only win came on their travels so they are seeking a first home win of the season. They only lost two at home last season and both came against top-four teams. Bournemouth's new style of play hasn't provided much in the way of returns. They have just one point but their two defeats came against Liverpool and Tottenham. I expect it to be close but Brentford should shade it.
FPL Pick: Bryan Mbeumo
Two of Mbeumo's three goals this season have come from the penalty spot. But Bournemouth conceded the third-most penalties last season and already conceded one this season. Bournemouth's high press can be exploited by Brentford's pacy counter-attack, which will be led by Mbeumo. He has multiple routes to a solid points haul.
Burnley (+275) vs. Tottenham (-115) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Burnley 0 - 2 Tottenham
Tottenham's unbeaten start to the season sees them sitting in third place and life without Harry Kane has been going better than expected. This will be Burnley's third consecutive home game to start the season and they've conceded three goals in both of their fixtures so far. They will have to tighten things up defensively but Tottenham should still have enough to get a comfortable win.
FPL Pick: Pedro Porro
I mentioned it in our weekly FPL Preview, Porro is not good defensively. But he can pose a real threat going forward. We've just seen Villa's right-back, Matty Cash, score twice and have five shots against Burnley. Porro has started the last two games, having four shots and hitting the woodwork. If Burnley hasn't learned their lesson, they could experience some déjà vu.
One to consider for coming Gameweeks? 👀 #FPL #BURAVL pic.twitter.com/DUhA9ZmlrR
— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) August 27, 2023
Chelsea (-265) vs. Nottingham Forest (+700) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Chelsea 3 - 1 Nottingham Forest
Chelsea got their first win of the season against Luton and finally turned their forward fluidity into goals. Forest should prove to be a tougher assignment. After being the league's lowest scorers (11) away from home last season, they've scored three goals in two away games this campaign. But they failed to pick up a point in either game.
FPL Pick: Nicolas Jackson
Jackson got his first goal for Chelsea against Luton and he'll need to continue carrying the load with limited striker options. His link-up play with Raheem Sterling has been impressive and only six players have had more shots (11) than Jackson this season.
Manchester City (-650) vs. Fulham (+1400) - 10:00 am ET
Score prediction: Manchester City 3 - 0 Fulham
City scraped a win against Sheffield United but again showed their quality and depth, finding a way to win games when not at their best. Although Fulham picked up a credible point at Arsenal and beat Everton, they have the highest expected goals against (9.5 xGA). Not an ideal thing against last season's top-scorers (94).
FPL Pick: Erling Haaland
After missing a penalty on Sunday, FPL managers might be reluctant to captain Haaland this week. But this is the perfect game for him against the defense that's looked the leakiest so far. He scored in both games against Fulham last season and I wouldn't be surprised if he scored a brace (or better) this weekend.
Brighton (+155) vs. Newcastle United (+160) - 12:30 pm ET
Score prediction: Brighton 1 - 2 Newcastle United
Brighton came back to Earth with a bump last weekend following their 3-1 defeat at home to West Ham. That came after back-to-back 4-1 wins to begin the season but they struggled against a tough defense and the West Ham counter-attack. Newcastle contrived to lose against Liverpool, despite leading and playing more than an hour against ten men. While I expect goals in this game, Newcastle's defense could be the deciding factor.
Brighton have created the most xG (7.69) and conceded the third most xG (7.11) in the league this season.
De Zerbi chaos. pic.twitter.com/R8EG4MriZk
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) August 29, 2023
FPL Pick: Anthony Gordon
After a disappointing first season with Newcastle, the England under-21 star has begun to look a quality player. He's got a goal and an assist so far while also ranking second on the team in shots (seven). Brighton struggled to contain Jarrod Bowen last time out and Gordon playing a similar role in the same position could benefit.
Sunday, September 03, 2023
Crystal Palace (-110) vs. Wolves (+300) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 - 0 Wolves
As I expected to begin the season, Palace under Roy Hodgson has reverted back to being difficult to break down but also lacking much of an attacking edge. Wolves got their season up and running with a 1-0 win at Everton but they still don't look convincing and also look devoid of goals. I expect a closely fought-low-scoring game again this week.
FPL Pick: Jordan Ayew
Palace will be looking at Eberechi Eze for creativity but it's Ayew who has assisted both Palace goals so far. He also ranks third on the team for shots (10) and shot-creating actions (13). In a game that could be decided by one moment, Ayew might end up being the match-winner.
Liverpool (-155) vs. Aston Vila (+360) - 9:00 am ET
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 - 2 Aston Villa
There's been no shortage of drama in Liverpool's games so far and no shortage of goals in Villa's games. Villa showed how they might struggle against the top teams when they lost 5-1 at Newcastle but they've also shown no shortage of attacking flair, scoring eight goals in their three games. Liverpool will be without captain Virgil van Dijk so I fully expect goals in this game.
FPL Pick: Dominik Szoboszlai
Szoboszlai has yet to tally a goal involvement but has impressed following his Summer transfer. He's had six shots and his 11 shot-creating actions are the second-most on the team. Only the two full-backs have put in more crosses, he takes some corners and has had more touches in the attacking third than any other Liverpool player. The goals and assists will come soon and I suspect, they start on Sunday.
Arsenal (-125) vs. Manchester United (+300) - 11:30 am ET
Score prediction: Arsenal 1 - 1 Manchester United
Neither side has particularly impressed so far this season and both teams went behind early last weekend. For Arsenal, it's become a regular problem and one they likely won't get away with again on Sunday. After two lackluster performances, Manchester United switched things around and at least found some attacking fluidity. It feels like a game where both teams cancel each other out a bit and end up sharing the points.
1 - Arsenal are the first team in Premier League history to concede a first minute goal three times in a single calendar year. Oddity. https://t.co/AobeQip2kk
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) August 26, 2023
FPL Pick: Marcus Rashford
Rashford is a much better option when he plays wide left like he did last week. Although Rashford didn't score, he picked up his first assist of the season. He scored three goals and had one assist in the two games against Arsenal last season so he will also be fancying his chances of getting his goalscoring tally up and running.
Betting Picks
The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Luton 1 – 2 West Ham | West Ham -125 | O2.5 -110 | Yes -125 |
| Sheff United 1 – 1 Everton | Draw +220 | U2.5 -160 | Yes -115 |
| Brentford 2 – 1 Bournemouth | Brentford -140 | O2.5 -140 | Yes -140 |
| Burnley 0 – 2 Tottenham | Tottenham -115 | U2.5 +125 | No +130 |
| Chelsea 3 – 1 Notts Forest | Chelsea -265 | O2.5 -155 | Yes -110 |
| Man City 3 – 0 Fulham | Man City -650 | O2.5 -260 | No -145 |
| Brighton 1 – 2 Newcastle | Newcastle +160 | O2.5 -210 | Yes -235 |
| Crystal Palace 1 – 0 Wolves | Palace -110 | U2.5 -155 | No -125 |
| Liverpool 2 – 2 Aston Villa | Draw +340 | O2.5 -240 | Yes -220 |
| Arsenal 1 – 1 Man United | Draw +295 | U2.5 +140 | Yes -190 |
| Season totals | 19/29 | 21/29 | 17/29 |
| Season parlays | 1/3 (+0.76 u) | 1/3 (+3.30 u) | 1/3 (+3.91 u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
