Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - New York Giants 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Joe Nicely's fantasy football sleepers, breakouts, and busts on the New York Giants. A 2023 fantasy football offensive preview for the New York Giants.

As Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season quickly approaches, the fantasy football draft season is in full bloom. Here at RotoBaller, we've put together a series previewing some notable fantasy options for every NFL team. This article will be covering the New York Giants.

The New York Giants put together a surprisingly strong effort in head coach Brian Daboll's first season at the helm. The G-Men finished at 9-7-1 for their first winning record since 2016 and advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.

In this article, we'll dive into the fantasy football prospects for some key New York players. We'll discuss one "lock" to be a top fantasy scorer at their position, one breakout candidate, and one potential bust for the 2023 Giants. Let's dive in!

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Fantasy Football Lock - Saquon Barkley

Saquon Barkley reminded fantasy managers what he was capable of when fully healthy last season. Appearing in 16 games for the first time since his rookie season in 2018, Barkley totaled 1,650 all-purpose yards and 10 TDs while leading the G-Men to an appearance in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. He finished the year as the overall RB5 in PPR fantasy, scoring at 17.8 fantasy points per game.

In Brian Daboll's first year as head coach, Barkley was utilized as one of the NFL's few workhorse backs. He logged a career-high 295 rushing attempts and garnered 76 targets in the passing game, which was the second-most of his career. There's little reason to believe that bell-cow role changes significantly in 2023, as the Giants did little to address their backfield during the offseason. New York re-signed veteran Matt Breida and selected Eric Gray in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL draft.

After an offseason filled with sometimes-testy contract negotiations, Barkley and the Giants eventually compromised on a revamped one-year deal. Translation...Barkley will enter what's essentially a contract year highly motivated and playing in a retooled Big Blue offense that might be the best unit he's ever played with in his career.

Honorable Mention: Daniel Jones - "Danny Dimes" logged the best fantasy output of his career in Brian Daboll's first year with the Giants in 2022. Jones posted career highs in passing attempts (472), passing yards (3,205), and yards per attempt (6.8).

While the growth as a passer was exciting, the true revelation came thanks to Daboll embracing Jones' rushing ability, as he finished last season as one of just five QBs in the league with more than 700 rushing yards. It resulted in Jones receiving a new mega-contract and a finish as the overall fantasy QB9. With an improved offensive cast in 2023, Jones will be on the QB1 borderline on a weekly basis.

Fantasy Football Breakout - Darren Waller

In March, the G-Men took a big swing on a huge potential offensive weapon by sending a third-round draft pick to the Las Vegas Raiders in exchange for tight end Darren Waller. The Waller hype has grown to sometimes ridiculous levels throughout the Giants' training camp, as we've seen almost daily highlights of Waller making a spectacular play with quarterback Daniel Jones.

While it can be hard to parse through what's real and what's not in the preseason, it feels reasonable to say that Waller could very well lead a Giants offense that lacks an alpha wide receiver in targets, receptions, and yards in 2023.

We've seen elite TE fantasy production from Waller in the past, as he logged back-to-back seasons of over 1,000 receiving yards with the Raiders in 2019 & 2020. However, the now-30-year-old has been plagued with injury issues recently and has missed a combined 14 games over the past two seasons. Predicting health and injuries can be a tricky business, so let's just say that Waller could once again be one of the NFL's elite fantasy tight ends if he can manage to stay on the field during his first season in New York.

Honorable Mention: Jalin Hyatt - A downfield burner who won the 2022 Biletnikoff Award while at the University of Tennessee, some believed Jalin Hyatt was a potential first-round pick. He fell to the Giants in the third round of the 2023 NFL Draft. He's reportedly impressed with his blazing speed in training camp and he'll bring a field-stretching element that the New York offense sorely lacked in 2022. There are shades of DeSean Jackson here and he's an intriguing fantasy flier in dynasty, best ball, and deeper-league formats.

Fantasy Football Bust - Parris Campbell

Darren Waller isn't the only new arrival drawing praise out of New York's training camp. Giants beat writers and staff have raved about Parris Campbell throughout the preseason. Campbell landed with Big Blue on a one-year, $4.7 million deal following his best season as a pro last year in Indy when he logged career highs in receptions (63), yards (623), and TDs (three).

However, last year also marked the first time in his four-year NFL career that the often-injured Campbell appeared in all 17 games in a season. Assuming he's able to stay on the field this year for the G-Men -- which is a fairly big assumption considering his injury history -- chances are that Campbell's fantasy impact will be minimal due to the sheer number of receivers that should see playing time for the Giants this season.

Most analysts project tight end Darren Waller to be New York's de facto No. 1 receiver, while Campbell will be forced to fight for targets with a slew of wideouts including Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, Jalin Hyatt, Sterling Shepard, and Wan'Dale Robinson. Head coach Brian Daboll will likely utilize a rotation with all these wideouts, which will severely limit their individual fantasy value.

Honorable Mention: Isaiah Hodgins - Hodgins was a solid fantasy producer down the stretch last season after being brought in from the Buffalo Bills as a stopgap measure. He amassed 392 receiving yards and four TDs on 37 catches while earning five starts for an extremely banged-up Giants receiving corps in 2022. However, for the same reasons mentioned above with Parris Campbell, there's a strong chance that Hodgins gets lost in the shuffle of this suddenly deep New York receiver corps.

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