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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy MLB DFS prop picks for Friday, August 25, 2023. Welcome back to our DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the MLB DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks – whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people – you're just playing against the projections.
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Gerrit Cole, 35.5 Fantasy Points (LOWER)
Cole is an ace; there can be no doubt. Cole has also been a bit shaky versus the Tampa Bay Rays this year. In three games versus Cole this season, the Rays are slashing .250/.311/.500 with five home runs and nine RBI. In the last 30 days versus righties, the Rays are batting .286/.351/.492, with 34 home runs and an .842 OPS. The Rays have a 130 wRC+ for the last 30 days and a .226 ISO versus right-handed pitchers for the season. Tampa Bay is getting hot again and will keep Cole under 35.5 fantasy points.
Matt Manning, 22.5 Fantasy Points
Manning has lost his last two out of three starts, and while he has 4.31 ERA for the season, he has a 5.59 xFIP. Houston's bats are starting to wake up, with a 124 wRC+ and .187 ISO in the last thirty days. Houston's splits versus righties for the season aren't very impressive, but in their previous 14 games, they are slashing .264/.344/.411 with a .755 OPS. For the season, they have an 18% strikeout rate, which will make it difficult for Manning to get points from strikeouts, and with a 5.59 xFIP, the home runs could start to tick up. I'll be taking the "Lower" for Manning versus Houston tonight.
Paul Goldschmidt, 8.0 Fantasy Points (LOWER)
Goldschmidt is facing lefty Cristopher Sanchez in Philly tonight. The lefty hitter is fine versus left-handed pitchers, but versus Sanchez and his .344 xFIP, hits will be tougher to come by. In ten games versus lefties, Sanchez is allowing a slash line of just .159/.245/.295 with one home run and three RBI. It'll be close, but I'll be going "Lower" on Goldschmidt and his 8.0 fantasy points.
Underdog Fantasy Pick'em (LOWER)
Spenser Strider, 9.0 Strikeouts (HIGHER)
Right-hander Strider faces a San Francisco team with a 78 wRC+ for the last thirty days and a .127 ISO for the season. They are ranked 22nd and 23rd in hits and runs, respectively, and 26th in strikeouts. They are slashing .236/.319/.393 versus righties, and the Giants have a 26% strikeout rate for the season. We might not see strikeouts in the teens for Strider, but going over nine versus San Francisco should be a walk in the park. I'll be going "Higher" on Strider and his 9.0 Strikeouts.
Adley Rutschman, 1.5 Total Bases (HIGHER)
Rutschman and the Orioles are at home tonight against lefty Kyle Freeland and the Rockies. In 67 games versus lefties, Rutschman is slashing .321/.430/.504 with five home runs and 18 RBI. Freeland has gone one and three in his last five starts and has a 6.23 ERA. His ERA is 5.02 for the season, and his xFIP is 5.14. Rutschman's slash line at Camden Yards is .326/.404/.546, all numbers that lead me to conclude that Rutschman will be going higher than 1.5 total bases tonight at home versus Freeland.
Nico Hoerner, 1.5 Total Bases (HIGHER)
Hoerner and the Cubbies have a tough matchup versus right-hander Mitch Keller, but hear me out: in the last 30 days, Chicago has a 115 wRC+, up from 89 for the season. They have a .206 ISO in the same 30 days, up from .173 for the season. They have been scoring runs, and their at-bats are becoming more productive. They are at hitter-friendly PNC Park this evening, where they are 4-0 for the season, with a .250/.335/.414 slash line and a .750 OPS. Hoerner will have no problem going over 1.5 bases tonight versus Keller in Pittsburgh.
Underdog Fantasy Pick'em (HIGHER)
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