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Jorden Hill identifies 3 overvalued quarterbacks that could bust in 2023 fantasy football. Where should you draft these NFL QBs if not at their current ADP?
Draft season is in full swing, which means it's time for fantasy football gamers to determine the players they are targeting as well as those they are avoiding at cost. The key here is cost, as many players will be relevant fantasy assets, but not all will return value given their current ADP.
In traditional one-QB fantasy formats, it's especially crucial to stay away from potential quarterback busts when they are being drafted ahead of impactful skill position players. There's little risk in taking a guy like Jared Goff in the 12th round since the opportunity cost of missing out on running backs and wide receivers in this range is much lower than it is in earlier rounds.
The three signal-callers discussed below may very well have successful seasons but could feasibly bust from a fantasy perspective when considering their draft-day price tag. I'll explain my concerns for these players and mention a few alternative options to target further down draft boards.
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Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
ADP: QB5, Overall 36
One could make a strong case that Joe Burrow is second to only Patrick Mahomes when evaluating NFL quarterbacks, and he also proved to be amongst the best fantasy QBs in 2022. Burrow was incredibly consistent, averaging about 22 fantasy points per contest and finishing as a top-12 quarterback in 11 of his 16 full games.
Simply put, he's unlikely to disappoint you as a weekly starter. But Burrow is typically drafted within the first three rounds, a domain usually reserved for quarterbacks with elite rushing upside (and Mahomes, of course). To add Burrow to your roster, you may be forced to select him ahead of his teammate Joe Mixon and potential stud receivers such as Calvin Ridley and Keenan Allen.
Although Burrow did suffer a calf strain in late July, he fortunately seems to be progressing well and should have a good shot to suit up in Week 1.
He doesn't carry a lot of risk for re-injury, so health is not a factor when labeling Burrow a potential bust. With this news, however, it wouldn't be surprising to see his ADP rise slightly over the next few weeks.
The biggest reason to consider fading Burrow on draft day is that there are other quarterbacks selected behind him that possess similar, if not greater upside. Justin Fields is certainly a riskier pick, but he did average almost 21 fantasy points per game in 2022 with Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, and Dante Pettis leading Chicago's wide receiver corps. His true ceiling is unknown. With DJ Moore now in town, Fields could easily enter the upper echelon of fantasy QBs this season and is being drafted eight picks after Burrow.
Last season's QB8, Trevor Lawrence, has an ADP almost two full rounds later than Burrow but is expected to make yet another leap in 2023. Lawrence is entering his second season under head coach Doug Pederson and will now have a rejuvenated Calvin Ridley at his disposal.
I'd personally draft Fields ahead of Burrow due to his rushing prowess. Although I'd still rank Burrow ahead of Lawrence, I'd much rather take the discount with the latter and anticipate similar fantasy output.
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
ADP: QB10, Overall 90
While we may be at a point where Dak Prescott has become underrated and perhaps disrespected by NFL fans, the same can't necessarily be said for his fantasy value. Sure, fantasy players won't be missing out on any high-end talent by drafting Prescott in the eighth round. His positional ADP doesn't sound too bad either at QB10. In years past, however, Prescott seemingly had the upside to finish much higher than this, but I'm not sure that potential exists in 2023.
In his most prolific seasons, 2019 and 2021, Prescott and the Cowboys attempted at least 37 passes per game. This was with Kellen Moore calling the shots as offensive coordinator. With Moore now in Los Angeles, head coach Mike McCarthy will be taking on play-calling duties as Brian Schottenheimer steps in as the new OC.
In Schottenheimer's three years as the Seahawks' OC, Seattle finished bottom-nine in pass attempts twice and ran the ball more than any team in the league in 2018. McCarthy found plenty of success both on the ground and through the air as the lead play-caller in Green Bay, but it seems clear that Dallas is hoping to make a change in its offensive philosophy this season.
Maybe the switch makes Prescott more efficient and less prone to turnovers, but it's hard to spin lower passing volume as a positive for a player who has thrived for fantasy when throwing almost 600 times in a season. He could definitely score as a top-10 quarterback in 2023, but there are players with much higher ceilings drafted behind him.
In a Superflex or 2-QB league, Prescott is a safe and logical choice. In traditional formats, however, I'd rather take a gamble at getting a difference-maker at the position. Tua Tagovailoa and Anthony Richardson both fit the bill and are commonly drafted a few picks after Prescott. Most importantly, though, I'd like to highlight last season's QB7 Kirk Cousins, who leads a top-five passing offense but has an ADP in Round 10.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
ADP: QB13, Overall 108
Let me start by saying that I am in on Garrett Wilson leveling up this year with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. The worst possible version of Rodgers is still an upgrade over Zach Wilson. Still, we have to acknowledge that Rodgers began to show signs of decline last season.
Rodgers' 2022 campaign yielded a career-low in passer rating as well as 12 interceptions, the second-most of any season of his historic career. Shockingly, he failed to eclipse 20 fantasy points even once in a single game.
Of course, Rodgers was without Davante Adams and instead had to rely on Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs. At 39 years old, though, it is a possibility that Rodgers is on a downward trajectory. The odds are stacked against him to return to MVP form.
Furthermore, if Rodgers does bounce back in 2023, it may not be until the second half of the season. The Jets have a brutal opening schedule, facing five top-half pass defenses from 2022 in their first six games. Matchups against the Broncos, Eagles, Bills, and Cowboys could prove especially difficult as these defenses all ranked within the top 12 against fantasy QBs last year. If you believe in Rodgers and New York's offense, it could make sense to fade him in drafts and trade for him during the team's Week 7 bye.
Like drafting Prescott in the eighth round, selecting Rodgers in the ninth isn't likely to be at the expense of a league-winning RB, WR, or TE. But in a league that awards four points per passing touchdown, I'll gladly take a shot on someone like Elijah Moore instead of Rodgers and draft Daniel Jones three rounds later.
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