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Free agency is far in the rear-view mirror but after the excitement of seeing new faces land in new places, it's essential to evaluate whether a player's fantasy value will benefit or suffer in their new landing spot. We've seen plenty of free agents go on to have more success in new spots, but there have been just as many (if not more) players who mightily regress with a change of scenery. That's the focus of this article.
This offseason saw a ton of running backs change teams, so the majority of this list is made up of ball carriers who will see their fantasy production decrease heading into 2023. A few of these guys signed late in the process and it could take them time to get up to speed. That will further increase the chance of a letdown campaign.
Without further ado, let's dive into the top free agents from this offseason who will decrease in value during the 2023 regular season campaign.
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Ezekiel Elliott, New England Patriots
In his seventh and final season with the Dallas Cowboys, Ezekiel Elliott posted career lows in rushing attempts (231), rushing yards (876), yards per carry (3.8), longest rush (27), first down rushes (52), receptions (17), and receiving yards (92). However, that didn't stop him from finishing as the RB19 in half-PPR formats -- thanks to 12 rushing touchdowns. Nine of those scores came inside the five-yard-line and 11 came inside the 10-yard-line.
Simply put, New England's offense won't provide as many easy-scoring opportunities for the veteran running back. Even if he overtakes Rhamondre Stevenson for the majority of the team's short-yardage work, Elliott doesn't have a realistic path to double-digit scores. The passing attack in New England is also far inferior to Dallas', so he won't see light boxes in 2023. That said, his 3.8 yards per carry could even regress in Mac Jones' offense.
Ultimately, Elliott's best case was to land back in Dallas or with an explosive offense like Buffalo or Kansas City. In New England, he'll be in a split timeshare at best and will lack the receiving and touchdown upside we look for in a fantasy running back.
Dalvin Cook, New York Jets
Dalvin Cook posted a respectable RB10 half-PPR season at age 27 last year, handling 303 total touches for 1,468 yards and 10 touchdowns with the Vikings. The four-time Pro Bowler has handled at least 283 touches in each of his last four seasons and has been one of the rare modern workhorses. In New York, he could see that workload come down significantly.
Most organizations have accepted the "death" of the bell cow running back. The injury risk is too high and keeping a fresh running back in the game is advantageous. With Cook already dealing with plenty of injury concerns throughout his six-year NFL career and posting a career-low 4.4 yards per carry last season, expect Breece Hall to see plenty of touches in this two-back committee. It's worth noting he is recovering from shoulder surgery he underwent earlier this offseason as well.
Some fantasy managers might believe Cook will benefit from playing with Aaron Rodgers rather than Kirk Cousins, but the Vikings ranked eighth in points per game and sixth in yards per game in 2022. Is Cook's situation actually better in New York? I don't think so. Even if it is -- it's by a razor-thin margin.
All that said, Cook could be one of the best value picks in upcoming drafts. He's currently going off the board as a high-end RB3. He can certainly exceed expectations and produce a mid-range RB2 season, but his days as a locked-in RB1 have likely come to an end.
Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints
Jamaal Williams enjoyed the best season of his career with the Detroit Lions in 2022. The veteran ball carrier rushed 262 times for 1,066 yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns. He finished the campaign as the RB9 overall in half-PPR scoring, proving to be a league-winner due to his cheap cost in preseason drafts. Sadly, there's a great chance he'll be unplayable when Alvin Kamara (suspension) returns in Week 4.
Williams' 2022 campaign was a fluke and will not be replicated with the New Orleans Saints. While he was impressive near the goal line, he was playing behind one of the league's best offensive lines and still ranked 54th in true yards per carry (3.9), 50th in yards per touch (4.2), 52nd in juke rate (14.2%), 50th in breakaway run rate (2.7%), and 55th in yards created per touch (1.41) among qualified running backs.
Ultimately, the BYU product benefited from an incredible situation as the lead goal line back for the Lions' explosive offense. He scored 10 of his 17 touchdowns from the one-yard-line, 14 touchdowns inside the five-yard-line, and 15 touchdowns inside the 10-yard-line. But overall, he was one of the NFL's least efficient runners.
With the Saints, he'll share a backfield with Kamara (after Week 3) and rookie running back Kendre Miller. Not only will his touchdown total see immense negative regression, but his overall opportunity share could dissipate quickly if he proves to be an inefficient runner like last year. Even at his RB37 price tag, he could fail to pay off at value.
Devin Singletary, Houston Texans
Devin Singletary has enjoyed relative success playing in the high-powered Buffalo Bills offense over the last few years. Now, he'll trade in one of the league's best offenses for one of the worst with the Houston Texans. On top of that, it's looking like second-year running back Dameon Pierce will assume the bell cow role in Houston's offense after playing the vast majority of his snaps with the team's starters during the preseason.
Ultimately, an offense led by a rookie C.J. Stroud whose supporting cast features Nico Collins, Robert Woods, Noah Brown, John Metchie, Dalton Schultz, Tank Dell, and Xavier Hutchinson isn't set up for success. The Texans are likely to finish as a bottom-five offense -- and could even contend for the worst unit in the NFL in 2023. Singletary finished as the RB24 last season and is going off the board this year around the RB47 spot. The fantasy football community knows he's in trouble.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, New England Patriots
JuJu Smith-Schuster had a solid 2022 campaign in his first and only season with the Kansas City Chiefs. He caught 78 of his 101 targets for 933 yards and three touchdowns en route to a WR29 finish in half-PPR formats. The USC alum's career started hot, as he put up 917 yards and seven touchdowns as a rookie and 1,426 yards and seven scores as a sophomore. However, the former Steeler has not produced a 1,000-yard season since 2018 and his best days could already be behind him at age 26.
Sure, he rebounded nicely with the Chiefs last year, but he still underwhelmed in the context of the Chiefs offense and will see a vast quarterback downgrade in 2023 in the form of Mac Jones. While Jones was efficient as a rookie before regressing in 2022, there's a low chance he'll be a prolific quarterback in the near future.
Last season, New England ranked 21st in pass plays per game (31.8) and although the offensive coordinator is different in 2023, head coach Bill Belichick wants to play the "grind-it-out" style of offense. Even if new OC Bill O'Brien wants to dial up the passing attempts, it's tough to envision a prolific offense with a group of pass-catchers consisting of Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Tyquan Thornton, Kendrick Bourne, Mike Gesicki, and Hunter Henry.
Like Cook, Smith-Schuster could pay off at his current cost (WR48), but it'd be surprising if he finishes among the top 30 at the position this season as a Patriot.
Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
Former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo often seemed like he was playing QB on easy mode behind an elite offense line, stellar run game, and dynamic YAC (yards after catch) weapons such as Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Garoppolo finally moved on from offensive guru Kyle Shanahan's team this offseason and is set to take part in the Josh McDaniels experiment in Las Vegas.
Sure, he'll have Davante Adams and a couple of solid possession receivers in Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Renfrow to work with, but the offensive line play will be the worst he's dealt with in years and the team lacks dynamic play-makers to give him a decent fantasy ceiling. Ultimately, the Raiders project to be one of the worst teams in the NFL in 2023, so Jimmy G will be best utilized in fantasy football as a last-second fill-in as a result of an injury. Even then, there will likely be options with higher ceilings on the waiver wire.
He's going off the draft board around the QB27 spot. Should he even be going ahead of Sam Howell and Ryan Tannehill? I'm not so sure.
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans
Dalton Schultz posted TE5 and TE12 seasons in fantasy points per game in 2021 and 2022, respectively, with the Dallas Cowboys. He fits the common theme of this article as a player who left an elite offense for a team in contention to finish dead last in points per game this season.
While Schultz could serve as a security blanket in the short to intermediate passing game for the rookie C.J. Stroud, his upside is erased by his switch to the other franchise in Texas. Perhaps he has an OK floor that'll make him startable in PPR formats, but fantasy managers should be prepared to kiss his multi-touchdown games goodbye.
While Dallas finished fifth in the NFL with 38.4 passing attempts per game during his TE5 season, Houston will look to make games ugly in year one under new head coach DeMeco Ryans. That said, his touchdown upside and overall volume will likely regress mightily. Even if his target share sees an uptick, it might not be significant enough to replace his efficiency.
In summary, he's set to play with a rookie quarterback (who often struggle to support fantasy pass-catchers) on a team that will see fewer passing attempts and sustained drives. With all of that considered, his TE12 ADP is head-scratching.
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