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Happy Friday, RotoBallers! Welcome to our Underdog Fantasy MLB DFS prop picks for Friday, August 18, 2023. Welcome back to our DFS series covering Underdog Fantasy contests! We will continue to focus on the MLB DFS props offered on Underdog called Higher/Lower (Over/Under).
Higher/Lower is traditional over/under DFS prop picks – whether you think pitchers and hitters will score Over or Under the set lines, and choosing your amount. You can parlay multiple picks together to vastly increase the juice (ex: three picks = 6x your bet). Underdog Fantasy offers some of the industry's best and easiest-to-win MLB DFS games. At Underdog Fantasy, you're not playing against other people – you're just playing against the projections.
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Luis Medina, 5.0 Strikeouts (LOWER)
Medina has a 20% strikeout rate and faces a Baltimore team with a 0.174 ISO versus right-handed pitchers. Medina is two and eight this season, one and three at home, and 0-2 versus the AL East. The Orioles have returned to earth a bit but are still ranked 12th in the league in slugging, seventh in RBI, and 13th in strikeouts. In eight games at home this year, Medina is averaging 4.75 strikeouts per game. I don't expect Medina to pitch enough innings to get to five strikeouts. I'll be going lower for Medina versus Baltimore.
Elias Diaz, 1.5 Total Bases (LOWER)
Yes, we have a Coors game today, and yes, Diaz is a Rockie, but I'm not looking for the Rockies to do much versus Michael Kopech, even with his 5.45 xFIP. The Rockies have a 30% strikeout rate for the season, a 57 wRC+ and a .155 ISO. In their last 30 games, they are slashing .232/.293/.388; in his last five games, Diaz has a .063/.063/.063 slash line, with just one hit. Lower it is for Elias Diaz and his 1.5 total bases.
Myles Straw, 0.5 Singles (LOWER)
Straw and the A's face Tarik Skubal tonight in Detroit. Skubal has a 4.18 ERA this season, but his xFIP is just 2.9. Versus right-handed pitchers, Oakland has a 0.132 ISO and a 25% K rate. Since July 19th, Straw is slashing .225/.319/.300 versus righties and in six games versus Detroit this season, is slashing .050/.095/.050 with just one hit. Getting hits in Detroit could prove difficult for Straw and the A's, even with Oakland's resurgence in the last month. Take the lower for Myles Straw's 0.5 singles.
Underdog MLB Pick'em (LOWER)
Bryce Harper, 8.5 Fantasy Points (HIGHER)
Harper and the Phillies are in Washington tonight, where it will be around 82 degrees at game time, and they are facing right-hander Joan Adon. Those words alone should have you going higher than 8.5, but if you need more: In ten games versus Washington this season, Harper is slashing .297/.395/.486, and versus righties, in 2023, he is batting .304/.395/.455. Throw in how much Harper likes to beat the Nat's, and you have a perfect storm of stat's and drama, all of which should add up to over 8.5 fantasy points for Harper.
Alex Cobb, 3.0 Earned Runs Allowed (HIGHER)
Cobb faces an Atlanta team with a 19% strikeout rate, 142 wRC+, and a .220 ISO. The team is slashing .274/.345/.501 for the season, ranking first in the league for all three. Versus righties, they are .269/.342/.491; dangerous facing either arm. Cobb is six and four for the season, with a 3.62 ERA, but on the road, he is two and two, with a 4.96 ERA. Expect the Braves to push Cobb's earned runs to over 3.0 Earned Runs Allowed for tonight's game.
Andrew Heaney, 15.5 Pitching Outs (HIGHER)
Heaney faces a Milwaukee team with a 72 wRC+ and .128 ISO for the season. They are 22nd in runs scored, 22nd in strikeouts, and 28th in batting average, slashing .232/.311/.375 in 2023. The Brew Crew has a 27% strikeout rate versus lefties, with a .233/.308/.387 slash line. I'm not expecting many runners on base tonight versus Heaney and for him to go over 15.5 Pitching Outs.
Underdog MLB Pick'em (HIGHER)
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