RADIO
Jordan Spieth is like a Taco Bell fart; you never know what you are going to get. With his only T20 in the last three months coming two months ago at the Memorial (T5), it is no surprise that he leads the first playoff event, but I will be honest and say I did not see this coming. Tom Kim sits a shot back despite playing on an ankle that is still not fully healthy, while Collin Morikawa and Emiliano Grillo both shot -5 in some wet, scorable conditions down in Memphis.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Weather & Tee Times
The tee times for R2 are going to be off both tees so any weather advantage will be non-existent.
Round 2 Strategy
With three rounds still to go in the tournament, taking a gamble on guys further down the leaderboard seems a little less risky, as they know they still have a chance if they play well the next three days. Going off of R2 projected ownership in the model, we are going to find some golfers with lower than usual ownership who are still projected to be top scorers tomorrow.
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Jon Rahm shot over par at the Open and then finished T2. He may be too far back to catch the pedigree of golfers 8 shots ahead of him, but he has a never-say-die attitude that will see him bring his very best tomorrow, despite how poorly he played today. We get a major ownership discount on the second-best projected golfer for R2 after his clunker today, but rest assured that the Tour's leading birdie maker will be looking to go low tomorrow and charge up that leaderboard.
Other options: Scottie Scheffler gained strokes putting. That is not a typo. He gained over two strokes with the flat stick on the back nine to salvage a slow start with his new putter. If the World No. 1, who has been a tee-to-green freak, and if he can start rolling in a few more putts, watch. out.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Patrick Cantlay is the second-best birdie maker on tour and can pop with his putter at seemingly any moment. He got off to a slow start today at -2 but at a sub $10,000 price tag, he could be the leading points scorer in R2 if he plays to his potential.
Other options: Tyrrell Hatton, Collin Morikawa
$8,000+
Favorite play: Tony Finau gained 4 strokes ball striking in R1 and shot -3. If that putter finds a warm place to sleep tonight and heats up on the greens, one of the tour's most exotic ball strikers can race up the leaderboard if he has half as good a ball striking round tomorrow.
Other options: Jason day, Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama
$7,000+
Favorite play: Corey Conners almost made an ace today and seems to be feeling really comfortable over the golf ball right now at $7,300. He will be a little more popular in this range, but with ball striking like he possesses, we get some serious value out of the smooth swinging Canadian.
Other options: Sepp Straka, Denny McCarthy, Brendon Todd
$6,000+
Favorite play: Sam Ryder is starting to gain momentum and he is only $6,100 as one of the better iron players in the field right now who, for the first half of the season, lead the PGA Tour in SG Putting. With a little bit of confidence seeping onto his putter from his irons, somebody this cheap could easily find himself as a top-10 scorer in a single round.
Other options: Keith Mitchell, Nick Taylor, Ben Griffin
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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