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The 2023 college football season is finally within reach, so it's time to take a shot at who could win the Heisman Trophy this season. USC quarterback Caleb Williams has the best odds to take home the most extraordinary individual award in college sports, but he won last year, and history tells us he's unlikely to repeat.
Heisman Trophy contenders can appear out of nowhere, but there's a good chance the 2023 winner will be among the five honorable mentions and 10 "favorites" found on this list. Since the pool of college football players is so massive, every bet would pay out a nice chunk of change if you pick the correct winner. Without further ado, let's dive in!
All Betting Lines Via DraftKings Sportsbook -- Aug 11
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Honorable Mentions/Dark Horses
- Marvin Harrison Jr., WR; Ohio State (+2000)
- Kyle McCord, QB; Ohio State (+2500)
- Joe Milton, QB; Tennessee (+2500)
- Braelon Allen, RB; Wisconsin (+6000)
- Cam Rising, QB; Utah (+7000)
10. J.J. McCarthy, QB; Michigan (+1800)
One of the key aspects of winning the Heisman Trophy is playing on a great team. Michigan has qualified for the College Football Playoffs each of the last two years and has the horses to go back in 2023. The Wolverines retained 13 of its 22 starters from last season and kept stud running back Blake Corum away from the 2023 NFL Draft.
J.J. McCarthy isn't the traditional game-managing Michigan signal-caller and has real potential to be prolific in 2023. He's a superb athlete with plenty of weapons and has a chance to improve on his 27 total touchdowns from 2022. The recipe is somewhat simple here -- continue to win games and flash big-play upside.
Bet Analysis: Betting on McCarthy doesn't feel like a great value at his odds. If Michigan continues to be dominant, expect Corum and fellow running back Donavan Edwards to carry the majority of the offensive load. It'll be tough for the 20-year-old QB to outshine his teammates.
9. Bo Nix, QB; Oregon (+1600)
Bo Nix had plenty of ups and downs in three years at the University of Auburn, but he put it all together during his first year in Eugene at Oregon last season. He posted 3,593 passing yards and 29 passing touchdowns to just seven interceptions on an impressive 71.9% completion percentage. As a runner, he racked up 510 yards and an incredible 14 rushing scores.
Bo Nix’s third rushing touchdown of the game for Oregon! #GoDucks #CollegeFootball
— The College Experience (@TCEonSGPN) October 29, 2022
The Ducks went 10-3 and finished the season No. 15 in the AP Poll, vastly exceeding expectations under rookie head coach Dan Lanning.
Bet Analysis: In 2023, the Ducks return 11 starters, including stud running back Bucky Irving and wideout Troy Franklin. The fifth-year senior has an adequate supporting cast and should perform as well as ever in his final collegiate season. Oregon could be a sleeper to make the College Football Playoffs, so he's a solid value at +1600.
8. Michael Penix Jr., QB; Washington (+1600)
Michael Penix finished eighth in last year's Heisman voting, so he's naturally a top-1o option to win the trophy this season. The Florida native posted 4,641 passing yards and 35 total touchdowns in his fifth collegiate season and first year at Washington and led the Huskies to an 11-2 campaign. What he did was downright impressive.
Washington is ranked No. 11 in the preseason coaching poll, meaning it is largely expected to make legitimate noise in the college football landscape this year. If that happens and Penix's stats take any kind of uptick, he'll be right in the thick of the conversation. 14 starters return for 2023 and Washington could beat USC's greatest competition to win the Pac-12 for the first time since 2018.
Bet Analysis: The Huskies' offense ranked second nationally in total yards of offense last season, and returns seven of its 11 starters on that side of the ball. That's great news for Penix. However, are we really optimistic about Washington facing the 17th-toughest schedule in the nation that features Boise State and Michigan State in non-conference play? It's dicey. Again, the majority of Heisman winners were on inarguably great teams -- or at least big-time programs.
7. Sam Hartman, QB; Notre Dame (+1600)
Sam Hartman had a fantastic five-year career at Wake Forest University, accumulating nearly 13,000 passing yards, 127 total touchdowns, and 27 wins to 18 losses. At Wake Forest, posting a well above .500 win-loss record is almost unheard of, so he was one of the highest-profile quarterbacks to enter the transfer portal of all time.
Sam Hartman on 30+ yard throws since 2021:
☘️ 42 Completions (1st)
☘️ 24 Touchdowns (1st) pic.twitter.com/NHkOBjonTf— PFF College (@PFF_College) June 17, 2023
Now, he'll take the step up to one of college football's greatest programs and try to take the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to the College Football Playoffs. Notre Dame returns 100 percent of its running back rushing yards from last season but will have to look for key pass-catchers to step up after the departure of Michael Mayer. On the plus side, Hartman's blind side will be protected by Joe Alt, who is largely viewed as a top-five prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft class.
Bet Analysis: The 24-year-old signal-caller has seen it all, and he'll face similar competition as Notre Dame plays mostly an ACC schedule. The Irish have a top-15 toughest schedule overall with bouts against Ohio State, USC, and Clemson, meaning he'll be in the national spotlight more than ever before. It's tough to think Notre Dame will get through its schedule unscathed, but Hartman's Heisman odds are attractive given his situation.
6. Drake Maye, QB; North Carolina (+1600)
Drake Maye was a bonafide stud as a redshirt freshman, totaling over 5,000 yards of offense and 45 touchdowns for the Tarheels. Unfortunately, the team posted a 9-5 record, which limited Maye to just 10th place in the 2022 Heisman voting.
North Carolina lost its top wideout in Josh Downs, but Maye's 2022 resume should give us confidence that he'll manage just fine without him. He's viewed as a top-five pick in next year's draft, so head coach Mack Brown will likely continue to let him show off with his arm and legs.
Bet Analysis: Maye should be among the top quarterbacks nationally in all key statistics, but the 20th-ranked Tarheels will likely drop a few games in 2023 once again. Maye should keep the team in the mix for an ACC crown, but non-conference action against South Carolina and Appalachian State is concerning. North Carolina had the 102nd-ranked scoring defense last year, and that unit will likely hold back Maye's Heisman campaign again.
5. Cade Klubnik, QB; Clemson (+1400)
Cade Klubnik saw limited action as a true freshman, completing just 61 of his 100 passing attempts for 697 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions. On the ground, he racked up 139 yards and two scores. Despite Clemson posting a perfect ACC record at 8-0 and 11-3 overall record, it was viewed as a down season. Simply put, Clemson is in the "national championship or bust" category of elite programs after impressive runs with Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence.
Former Tigers quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei seemed to hold the team down while the defense was still playing at an elite level. If Klubnik can post at least above-average numbers in 2023, he'll be in the thick of the Heisman race thanks to the national attention Dabo Sweeney's program receives.
Bet Analysis: Klubnik has all the opportunity to enter the Heisman race, but he feels like too much of an unknown commodity to comfortably put faith and money behind. The former five-star recruit is fully expected to be the next big quarterback on campus, so we'll see if he can live up to expectations.
4. Jordan Travis, QB; Florida State (+1400)
After four years of mediocre production, Jordan Travis finally broke out in his fifth collegiate campaign. The former Louisville transfer threw for 3,214 yards, 24 touchdowns, and just five picks for Florida State last season -- adding 417 and seven scores on the ground. Now, the sixth-year senior is primed for a real Heisman-contending season.
HOW DID HE DO THIS?
Jordan Travis DRIBBLES the football on this @FSUFootball touchdown run. 😱 pic.twitter.com/F54OUNC8hx
— Bally Sports South (@BallySportsSO) October 24, 2020
ESPN insider Matt Connelly's model says FSU ranks No. 1 in the country in returning production from the team that posted a 10-3 record last season. The Noles was six games in a row to cap off its 2022 campaign and head into 2023 as the No. 8 team in the nation according to the coaches poll. The team is red hot and looks to challenge for the ACC's spot in the College Football Playoffs.
Bet Analysis: Travis and the Seminoles square off with LSU and Clemson in the first four weeks of the 2023 campaign, so we'll quickly see whether the hype is real and if Travis is a real Heisman contender. Does this one feel too good to be true? I believe so.
3. Quinn Ewers, QB; Texas (+1200)
Quinn Ewers was one of the most highly-touted quarterback recruits of all time and started his collegiate career at Ohio State. After a redshirt year, he transferred to Texas and had an up-and-down redshirt sophomore campaign. Ewers threw for 2,177 yards and 15 touchdowns to six interceptions en route to a 6-4 record as a starter.
Now, he sits third in the Heisman odds as a part of a Longhorns team that is expected to take the next step nationally. He has one of the best wide receivers in the nation in Xavier Worthy to work with and Texas is always among the most talented teams in the NCAA.
Bet Analysis: Truthfully, his place in the preseason Heisman odds is head-scratching. The 20-year-old has no shortage of arm talent, but he failed to be prolific last season and if he starts out slow, expect the pressure to build for Arch Manning to take over his starter job. This feels like the Sportsbooks trying to capitalize on the Texas football hype machine. Avoid this bet.
2. Jayden Daniels, QB; LSU (+1200)
After a slow start to Jayden Daniels' career and 2022 campaign, he began to become an X-factor for LSU's offense. The Tiger rattled off six wins over its final eight games, including victories over sixth-ranked Alabama and seventh-ranked Ole Miss. Daniels racked up 2,913 passing yards, 885 rushing yards, and 28 total scores overall.
Here's the Jayden Daniels touchdown to set up the game-winning two-point conversion
ICE. IN. HIS. VEINS.pic.twitter.com/lRSk7Ptziz
— The Transfer Portal CFB (@TPortalCFB) November 6, 2022
LSU ranks 10th nationally in returning production and gets back its top receiver from 2022, Malik Nabers, for the 2023 campaign. In Daniels' fifth college season, he has all the tools to post his greatest campaign to date.
Bet Analysis: Daniels has the high-end rushing upside that worked in the favor of many of the previous Heisman winners, and LSU has the more talented team in the overwhelming majority of its contests every year. The dual-threat QB could be held back by a limited passing ceiling, but if he takes the next step in that area, it won't be surprising if he's a top contender for the Heisman at year's end.
1. Caleb Williams, QB; USC (+550)
Caleb Williams took home the Heisman last season, but only Archie Griffin (1974, 1975) has won the award more than once throughout the history of college football. Ultimately, Williams will likely have to outperform his 4,537 passing yards and 52 total touchdowns from last year to leave Heisman voters will no choice. This will be a tall task without new Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Jordan Addison.
Additionally, USC must be in the National Champion race for him to make history and win the award multiple times.
Bet Analysis: +550 odds don't feel worth gambling on considering the never-ending pool of college football quarterbacks. There have been plenty of Heisman winners who have come close to winning the award back-t0-back, but it's a tough task and the value just doesn't seem to represent that.
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