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Tommy Bell's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/31/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Today is the final day of July, and we have 10 MLB games on the docket for Monday evening. With trade deadline rumors swirling and some big name players looking over their shoulders, we'll try to sort through the chaos to pinpoint a few valuable betting lines to take advantage of after splitting 1-1 on Sunday afternoon. Let's find some winners!
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My name is Tommy Bell, and I'll be taking over the Free MLB Betting article for Sunday and Monday this week. You can find me on Twitter for all things MLB banter @BellRoto. Now, let’s jump into a couple of plays for July 31, 2023!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Rays @ Yankees
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: TB -130
TB: Tyler Glasnow | NYY: Domingo German
We have two starting pitchers going in opposite directions in this one. Glasnow returned from injury on May 27th, and he's slowly warmed back up to his normal workload in the last three outings, throwing a combined 19 innings while racking up 24 strikeouts and allowing just four earned runs. Meanwhile, German is regressing from his strong start to the month, having allowed 12 earned runs in his last three starts combined on five homers and seven walks. Glasnow is simply a few tiers above German at the moment.
The Rays offense is far superior than the Yankees top-to-bottom, even with Aaron Judge back in the lineup. The bullpen comparison is a toss-up, but I will take the Rays' closer over the Yankees' carousel, and I see Glasnow giving the Tampa bullpen an easy night. While New York gets a marginal bump for returning home, they also had a late night getting worn out in Baltimore on Sunday Night Baseball. Tampa finds themselves 1.5 games back of those Orioles, and can't mess around in winnable games like this one. I'll take Tampa in the first game of this divisional series in the Bronx.
Pick: Rays ML (-130) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Reds @ Cubs
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: CHC (-120)
CIN: Andrew Abbott | CHI: Marcus Stroman
I don't often play an Under at this number, so I'll address the biggest concern first: Both of these offense are potent enough to ruin this Under by themselves if they start stringing together gap shots. However, there are enough factors in favor of a low-scoring contest to make me feel comfortable with a full-game Under, which is by far my least common bet on totals due to the danger of extra innings.
You can't ask for two better starters from these two teams, as Abbott has settled in as a dangerous southpaw with serious stuff for the Reds. Typically I back the Cubs against left-handed starters, but every metric continues to show that this 24-year-old is for real. I'm projecting six innings and two runs for him. He'll face Stroman on the other side, who always feels so safe to back when the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field. Some tough luck has hurt the veteran in his past few outings, but he has a great feel for when his team needs him to step up, and this Monday night divisional tilt has that kind of aura to it.
One smaller factor among others that helped get me to this play is the wind blowing in on a 70-degree night. Those are prime pitching conditions in Wrigleyville. We also have two strong back-end bullpens here who were not used in the past two nights. Normally I prefer an Under 4.5 First Five Innings to this full-game Under play, and I'm still fine with that approach, but the bullpens made me want the extra 3.5 runs over the last four frames. Lastly, there's a minor factor of a divisional matchup in which the Cubs are trying to catch the Reds in the NL Central. Teams get up for these kinds of series, especially with how poor the Cubs started the year and how much the Reds want to hold on to that top spot. Typically these playoff-atmosphere games lead to better defense, more strategic coaching, and more willingness to sacrifice an out for a run. I see this contest ending with a 3-2 Cubs win, and that gives me a two-run cushion to play with on an Under 8 play.
Pick: Under 8 Total Runs (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
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