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Welcome to our PrizePicks MLB DFS prop picks for Sunday, July 30, 2023. The 2023 MLB season is underway here at RotoBaller, and we have you covered with some terrific plays from our friends over at PrizePicks.
PrizePicks is a great DFS fantasy picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back. At PrizePicks, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the projections, and the guys at PrizePicks have worked hard to give you really attractive opportunities to make some money.
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PrizePicks Over/Under DFS Props Contests
PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game.
The second game is known as Single Stat. For the MLB, Single Stat consists of pitcher strikeout props in which you determine if the pitcher in question will go over or under their projected strikeout total.
You can mix and match players from different types of games in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Let's see what the board offers today!
MLB DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Today
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Tarik Skubal more than 5.5 strikeouts
Tarik Skubal has made four starts since coming off of the IL on the Fourth of July and has eclipsed this total in two of those starts, including a nine-strikeout performance in his last start against the San Francisco Giants. He has a solid matchup today against the Marlins, who are posting the 12th-highest K rate against southpaws over the previous three weeks with a rate of 23.6%. They are also posting an abysmal 3.4% walk rate and a lackluster 73 wRC+ mark over that same span, which should certainly help Skubal in this one.
Ryan Yarbrough more than 3.5 strikeouts
Ryan Yarbrough is not a guy I would typically include here, but he has pitched at least five innings in each of his previous four starts, including a 99-pitch outing in his most recent start. He has also struck out four or more batters in three of his last five starts. The matchup today against the Twins is solid as well as they have posted the third-highest K rate vs. southpaws over the previous three weeks with a rate of nearly 29% while also posting a sub-100 wRC+ mark.
Merrill Kelly more than 6.0 strikeouts
This is a spot I like for Merrill Kelly, mainly because he is at home where he has posted a 10.5 K/9, which is nearly three strikeouts higher than his road mark of 7.6. He will be up against the Mariners, who are posting a 27.2% K rate vs. right-handers over the previous three weeks. That ranks the sixth-worst in baseball over that span. Kelly has also eclipsed this total in four of his previous seven starts and in three of his previous four home starts.
Jose Berrios less than 6.5 strikeouts
This is a dicey play simply because the Angels are posting the fifth-highest K rate (27.5%) vs. right-handers over the previous three weeks. That being said, they are also posting a strong 125 wRC+ and an 11.3% walk rate over that same span. Jose Berrios has also failed to reach this total in nine of his past 12 starts. This feels like a spot where he could struggle vs. a tough Angels offense and miss the mark.
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