Overvalued, Undervalued Trade Targets - Buy/Sell for Fantasy Baseball (Week 18)

Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball. It's almost as important as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and witness their production improve that can really tip the scales in your favor in terms of the standings.

The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.

Here are some candidates who are currently undervalued and worth pursuing in trades, as well as some overvalued players who you should consider dealing if they currently occupy a spot on your roster.

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Undervalued Players To Trade For

Dylan Cease, SP, Chicago White Sox

Let’s start with a brief look at two blind resumes.

• Pitcher A: 184 innings pitched, 3.10 FIP, 11.10 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, 0.78 HR/9
• Pitcher B: 113.2 innings pitched, 3.63 FIP, 10.93 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, 0.95 HR/9

One of the pitchers is obviously Dylan Cease. That’s a bit of a spoiler. But in actuality, both pitchers are Dylan Cease. Or, to be more specific, Dylan Cease's numbers at different points in time. Pitcher A is Dylan Cease last year, and Pitcher B is Dylan Cease this year.

There’s a slight difference in innings, and the FIP is a half-run higher this year, but otherwise, it’s been a reasonably similar campaign for the right-hander.

One of the only notable differences is that his ERA and BABIP have jumped from 2.20 and .260 respectively to 4.04 and .311 this season.

And while his overall stuff is a bit down – per FanGraphs, Cease’s Stuff+ is down from 124 to 114 this season – it’s still decidedly very good when compared to the rest of the league. Among qualified starters this year, also per FanGraphs, only Spencer Strider, Corbin Burnes, Gerrit Cole, and Shohei Ohtani have a higher Stuff+ metric.

Even with the slightly diminished stuff, Cease represents an intriguing trade target for fantasy managers given his comparatively elevated (and slightly misleading) ERA and high strikeout upside.

There’s some obvious real-life trade potential here too. Of course, this is all entirely speculative, but if Cease is traded in real life, moving from the 41-61 White Sox to a contending club would be significant from a pitcher-win potential standpoint. If that’s the case, the right-hander could have league-winning upside if he joins a contender.

Overvalued Players To Trade Away

Lucas Giolito, SP, Los Angeles Angels

Lucas Giolito’s 2023 season so far has been decidedly solid. It’s been nowhere near as good as some of his more recent seasons – the 28-year-old’s 4.46 FIP is on track to be his highest since the 2018 campaign – but he’s been a useful rotation option for fantasy managers so far.

In 121 innings coming over the course of 21 starts, Giolito has logged a 3.79 ERA and the aforementioned 4.46 FIP. He’s striking out 9.74 batters per nine frames and is surrendering 3.12 walks and 1.49 home runs per nine innings.

There’s a chance some fantasy managers in your league will – rightfully – think Giolito has landed in a better fantasy situation after being traded along with reliever Reynaldo Lopez to the Los Angeles Angels.

As of the beginning of play on Wednesday, the Angels had scored the sixth-most runs scored in the league. But, since Mike Trout has been out they’ve been much more pedestrian. Not bad mind you, since Trout has been on the injured list, only 12 teams have outscored the Halos.

It is a notable upgrade from a run support standpoint for the veteran. Entering play Wednesday, 22 different clubs had outscored the White Sox. And while the starter has logged a reasonably solid six pitcher wins on the season, he had just two in his last nine starts dating back to June 6.

But, this isn’t exactly akin to Giolito stepping into a rotation (like say if he were traded to the Dodgers or Reds) that’s supported by a high-powered lineup.

The Angels’ trade deadline business might not be done, but the right-hander looks to be moving into a more good-but-not-great situation lineup-wise. Things could, and probably will change when Trout gets back, but if fantasy managers in your league are willing to value Giolito as a frontline starter in a deal thanks to his improved surroundings, it might be a prudent time to move him.

He’s still going to be reasonably productive, but with a rising FIP and a (for now) good-but-not-great Angels lineup, now might be the time to capitalize on his recent trade to the Angels and deal him.

Amed Rosario, SS, OF, Cleveland Guardians

Like Giolito, Amed Rosario is moving out of an unideal fantasy situation in the American League Central to a rather ideal one in Southern California.

The shortstop was acquired by the Los Angeles Dodgers in a deal for starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard and cash. Rosario departs a Cleveland lineup that has scored the sixth-lowest number of runs in the league as of the start of play Wednesday. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have scored the second-most runs in the sport.

For the season, the infielder is batting .265 with a .306 on-base percentage, three home runs, and nine stolen bases in 412 plate appearances for the Guardians.

And while a move to the Dodgers certainly improves his fantasy upside – and might boost his fantasy trade value in the process – it’s possible that he doesn’t start regularly for Los Angeles.

Of course, that’s all entirely speculative, but Rosario has been decidedly more productive against left-hand pitching this season.

• Amed Rosario against left-handed pitching in 2023: 109 plate appearances, one home run, .303 average, .345 on-base percentage, .822 OPS, .348 wOBA, 126 wRC+
• Amed Rosario against right-handed pitching in 2023: 276 plate appearances, two home runs, .250 average, .291 on-base percentage, .617 OPS, .272 wOBA, 70 wRC+

There’s obvious platoon potential here, especially with Chris Taylor and Miguel Rojas on hand, though again that’s all speculative.

Like Giolito, Rosario is going to be reasonably productive, but now may be the optimum time to try dealing him to a shortstop-needy team in your league given the potential for less than full-time playing time in Los Angeles.

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