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Today's free MLB prop betting picks for Sunday, July 23, 2023. Use Dan Palyo's top baseball prop picks and MLB prop bet recommendations to win money on sports books.
It's weird because sometimes we will get a slate full of good pitchers and it's hard to find a few props to like because of the matchups or because the books are getting better and better at adjusting the lines for pitchers as the season goes along. Today is a weird day because we don't have too many aces on the mound, but I actually do have a handful of pitchers that I like. I am going to give you my top three K props, though I do think I may end up betting on as many as 6-7 different pitchers when it's all said and done.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite prop bets for MLB games on Sunday, July 23, 2023. If you ever want to chat about strikeout props or any other MLB bets, you can find me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck today and let's cash some bets!
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MLB Pitcher Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
I hope you had a chance to tail me on my two picks yesterday as both Reid Detmers and Kevin Gausman went for 9K each. That parlay was worth a 5x return when I used my 100% boost on DraftKings. I got a little sunburnt yesterday floating down the creek, so I woke up feeling hot both literally and metaphorically -- but it's nothing a little aloe can't handle, and let's stay hot with these K props today.
Jesus Luzardo OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
Let's start with the lefty who let us down his last time out. I was on Jesus Luzardo against the Cardinals because he had pitched so incredibly well for a month straight and St. Louis had struggled with strikeouts against lefties. But the surging Cardinals got the better of Luzardo and reminded us that even red-hot pitchers have to cool down at some point. Today, I like Luzardo to bounce back in this spot as he's facing a relatively weak-hitting Rockies lineup at home.
Colorado will likely deploy eight RHH, but Luzardo's K% splits have been pretty narrow and he's been very good against righties with a 27.4% K%. Kris Bryant, Jurickson Profar, and Elias Diaz are tough guys to strike out, but Cron and McMahon are swing-and-miss power bats. The bottom third of the lineup (Tovar - 31%, Trejo - 29%, Doyle - 41%) is where Luzardo can really make some hay.
Hunter Brown OVER 6.5 strikeouts (-150 DraftKings)
It's been a very successful rookie campaign for Hunter Brown this season. But lately, he has shown some signs of hitting the rookie wall. Not so much in the strikeout department because those numbers have still been pretty good. It's in his run prevention, which has been pretty bad.
The good news for Brown is that he gets a very good matchup today against Oakland -- a team he dominated twice this season already (to the tune of 19 strikeouts across two consecutive starts).
Now, Oakland has brought up some prospects lately that have given their lineup a boost. But most of these youngsters are sporting above-average strikeout rates, too. This is a smash spot for Brown. Grab him at this number while you can, he's already moved to 7.5 on FanDuel.
Lucas Giolito OVER 6.5 strikeouts (+110 DraftKings)
Another guy looking to bounce back today is Lucas Giolito. He was rolling right along with some of his best results of the season coming in June and early July until he got knocked around by the Mets in his last start for eight earned runs on six hits and five walks.
Giolito is rumored to be available here as we approach the deadline and both he and the White Sox would love for him to go out and shut down the Twins today to increase his trade value. He's at plus money to get seven strikeouts against Minnesota and that happens to be exactly how many he's had against them twice already this season. My projections have him for nearly 7.5 today and I made the mistake of not playing Dylan Cease in the same spot yesterday and watching him smash with nine strikeouts against this very K-prone lineup.
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MLB Hitter Prop Bets - Today's Betting Picks
Matt Olson OVER 1.5 total bases (-125 DraftKings)
Julio Teheran has tried to reinvent himself in 2023 and it was working for him for his first 4-5 starts. Then the league did what it does -- it figured him out. Teheran has allowed 17 earned runs over his last three starts and a whopping 23 hits in those 16 innings.
I like the lefties mainly here today against him and Matt Olson had one of the best profiles against his sinker/cutter/changeup combo that he throws to LHP. A sneakier play might be Eddie Rosario at better odds, but I will take Olson here as my safe bet. I think he drives one today for extra bases off Teheran.
Geraldo Perdomo OVER 1.5 hits + runs +RBI (-130 DraftKings)
Geraldo Perdomo has been an excellent catalyst at the top of the lineup for Arizona since being installed as their leadoff hitter. He's enjoying a breakout season and is finding success from both sides of the plate as a switch hitter.
Today, he and the rest of the Snakes face Luke Weaver in Cincinnati in a matchup that I can't pass up. Weaver has been getting cooked by both righties and lefties this year and allowing a ton of hard contact. I love Perdomo's chances of collecting a hit or two and the elite game environment for hitting makes me think his teammates pick him and drive him in, too. Corbin Carroll is due for a big game (I will likely be betting on him, too, and using him in DFS) and Ketel Marte continues to be hot.
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