Drake London - 2023 Fantasy Football Breakout Candidate

As we progress through the NFL offseason, the amount of research fantasy managers are putting into their leagues is ramping up considerably. One key aspect of planning that fantasy enthusiasts must focus on is identifying breakout candidates. If you can pounce on a player just before they reach their peak level of production, you can acquire an elite asset at a low-cost draft position, a major component of fantasy success.

A major candidate for a breakout campaign this year is Atlanta Falcons wide receiver Drake London. A first-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, London entered his rookie season with high expectations. However, his play was somewhat overshadowed by the impressive outputs from fellow rookies Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Will London be able to make a second-year leap?

To explore London's outlook for 2023, we should begin by walking through his performances as a rookie, noting how his production ebbed and flowed. After that, we can investigate the difficult situation London was in last season to see why his stats don't tell the full story. Finally, we can look into the changes that occurred in Atlanta this offseason, including the addition of running back Bijan Robinson, to determine London's chances of success this year.

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A Promising Beginning for Drake London

Drake London was the eighth overall selection in the 2022 Draft, and he certainly earned that slot. His final collegiate season with the USC Trojans was remarkable despite being cut short by injuries. In just eight games, London caught 88 passes for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns. He was the 2021 Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year, and had he not gotten hurt, he would have been a frontrunner for the Biletnikoff Award.

Understandably, London entered the season with reasonably high expectations due to his draft placement and past play. He sustained a minor knee injury in his first preseason game after making a 24-yard catch and was held out until Week 1 as a result. In his regular season debut, London caught five passes on seven targets for 74 yards in a narrow 27-26 loss to the Saints.

Marcus Mariota 🎯

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The strong start continued in Week 2, as London caught eight of 12 targets versus the Rams, gaining 86 yards and scoring his first NFL touchdown. The following week against the Seahawks, he caught three passes for 54 yards and another touchdown, and he also helped the Falcons earn their first win of the season. London had an excellent first three weeks that left fans and fantasy managers excited to see how he could continue to improve.

Drake London's Disappointing Midseason Performances

Unfortunately, London's production fell off a steep cliff immediately after this opening stretch. Over his next nine games, London was unable to exceed 40 yards even once. Moreover, he reached five catches in only one appearance during this span, and in four matchups he had two or fewer receptions. London gained over 10 yards per reception in just two instances in this time as well; all in all, his hype quickly plummeted.

London did salvage an otherwise disastrous one-catch, two-yard game in Week 11 by having that one catch be a TD. His showing against Carolina in Week 10 was also saved by a touchdown, and with five catches for 38 yards, the game was okay all around. Still, many fantasy managers lost hope in London for season-long formats at some point in this period.

Drake London Had a Bounceback Finish  

London's final five games were much more inspiring than the preceding nine. He posted 95 or more yards three times, and at least 47 in all five. He also caught at least five passes in each game, and he also was targeted eight times at minimum in every appearance in this stretch.

London's best game of the season by receiving yardage was in the season finale against Tampa Bay. With 120 yards, London achieved the first 100-yard game of his NFL career. This outing featured a tough catch made through contact for a 40-yard gain, the longest play of London's rookie season.

This late-season success coincided almost perfectly with Atlanta's quarterback change. In Week 15, the Falcons switched to starting rookie passer Desmond Ridder over previous starter Marcus Mariota. With Ridder at the helm, London's production took a noticeable leap.

Granted, London scored no touchdowns with Ridder starting, but this fact is secondary to the large increases in receptions, targets, and yards that he saw. Additionally, London's efficiency rose quite a bit in this final stretch, an encouraging sign.

The Frustrating Situation in Atlanta Last Season

As with any player, it is always important to understand the context associated with the statistics we see. For London, that context included a particularly anemic passing game that contributed strongly to his midseason slump. While London may have been just 43rd in fantasy points per game among WRs, the underlying numbers are more promising.

Despite selecting London and tight end Kyle Pitts with top-10 draft picks in back-to-back offseasons, the Falcons did not make use of their weapons, instead opting to employ a run-heavy attack. The squad averaged the second-fewest pass attempts per game last season, and they ran the ball the most of any team in the league.

This state of affairs led to London's output being lower than his skill level would indicate. Despite having the 16th-most yards per team pass attempt, the 11th-most yards per route run, the 14th-most fantasy points per route run, and playing all 17 games, London had just the 28th-most receiving yards among wideouts. That speaks to the offense's inability to use London properly.

Moreover, consider London's target numbers. Without missing any games, London had the 22nd-most targets among receivers. However, he had the fifth-highest target share and second-highest target rate at his position. This discrepancy was maddening for fantasy managers.

Another important point is that, due to Atlanta's focus on the ground game, the Falcons had the slowest pace of play of any offense last season. With just 1.84 plays per minute of offensive possession compared to the league median of 2.06, Atlanta's offense posted deflated fantasy numbers because of its style.

Drake London Could Surprise in 2023

With Marcus Mariota now with the Philadelphia Eagles, the Atlanta offense will be led by Ridder for the entire season barring injuries or a surprise. This is great news for London, who, as described above, had much more success with Ridder commanding the passing attack last year. As Ridder was a rookie who was thrust into action only after the team's bye week, we can expect some growth from him this season as well.

However, it is important not to set expectations too high for Ridder. He never surpassed 224 passing yards in any of his four starts, and it took him until the final week of the season to toss a touchdown pass. His mark of 6.2 yards per attempt was also uninspiring. If his rapport with London continues, both players will benefit, but Ridder will have to improve before the passing offense can take off.

Another issue with London's outlook is that Atlanta's run-pass balance is unlikely to change any time soon. Head coach Arthur Smith and offensive coordinator Dave Ragone both return, so the team's slow-paced, run-first approach should continue. Further complicating matters is the addition of rookie running back Bijan Robinson. Robinson, like London and Pitts, was drafted with a top-10 pick, and he is expected to make a significant impact immediately.

There is some reason for optimism, though. While Mariota averaged merely 23.1 passing attempts per game in 2022, Ridder threw 28.8 passes per start. While Ridder's figures are based on a four-game sample size, they suggest that the situation for Atlanta wideouts will not be as severe.

It's easy to see the upside with London despite the suboptimal circumstances. His large target rate last season was impressive; any increase, not even a large one, in pass attempts from Ridder would net big gains in production for London. There is also hope for more touchdowns from him. London had the 18th-most red zone targets among WRs, yet he scored just four times.

Finally, we also saw glimpses of London's admirable catching ability. With a tall 6'4" frame and arms 33 7/8 inches long, London has a large catch radius that allows him to make impressive plays, such as the one below.

Sadly, London is limited less by his own skills than by his offense. He is clearly a talented player, but he will not be able to demonstrate those talents as frequently as fantasy managers would prefer. Still, things can change quickly in the NFL, and London is just a few coaching decisions away from a breakout campaign.

Since May, London has had an ADP as the WR22. He is unlikely to exceed this ranking on his own; he will need help from Ridder and the coaching staff. Still, we saw last season the efficient numbers he posted as part of a pitiful passing attack. There is an opportunity for London to overcome the aforementioned barriers and become the elite receiver he is capable of being.

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