Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (7/15/23)

It's Saturday, RotoBallers! I’m excited to be delivering free MLB betting content all season long. I bring a background in betting on MLB in various capacities, most notably competing in the DraftKings DFS live final last year. I'm looking to build off that momentum and capitalize on this baseball season again, and I'm including you in my process.

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Here I’ll update you on my favorite MLB bets throughout the season, and we'll continue to track how my picks are doing. We're treading water so far, going 12-12-1 on my betting picks so far, so we'll work on getting back in the green. Now let’s dig into my recommendations for July 15, 2023!

Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Rangers

O/U: 9.0 | Moneyline: TEX -155
CLE: Gavin Williams | TEX: Andrew Heaney

We'll begin with game two of the series between the Guardians and Rangers. Game one resulted in a 12-4 blowout victory for Texas, and I'm anticipating a similarly offense-friendly outcome today. Saturday's square-off features two uncertain pitchers taking on more qualified offensive lineups. Expect one or both of these teams to put up numbers today.

Prized prospect Gavin Williams takes the bump for Cleveland, making his fifth career start. His brief tenure in the majors has been moderately successful. He owns a 4.01 ERA, though a 4.35 xERA, .415 xSLG, and .324 xwOBA give Williams' performance moderately worse optics. It's important to note that three of his four appearances include two meetings with the Royals and one with the Athletics. It's been a fairly easy road for Williams, and the Rangers should be something of a culture shock. Texas scores an MLB-best 5.9 runs per game, including a 118 wRC+ and .789 OPS against right-handed pitching.

For the Rangers, Andrew Heaney gets the nod. He's had some brutal outings recently, surrendering seven earned runs over three innings pitched in his most recent appearance against the Nationals. In total, Heaney carries an ugly 4.94 xERA for the season, consisting of a .450 xSLG, .343 xwOBA, 9.7% walk rate, and 11.9% barrel rate. The Guardians don't present the most intimidating matchup for pitchers. They score 4.1 runs per game for the year, but that figure jumps to 4.7 runs per game since the beginning of June. They've turned it up lately, and the first-place will look to keep it rolling against a vulnerable pitching spot.

I really don't trust either pitcher in this matchup, and the presence of the Rangers lineup alone makes me confident they'll exceed the 9.0-run total.

Pick: Over 9.0 Total Runs (-115) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit

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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Mariners

O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: SEA -215
DET: Michael Lorenzen | SEA: George Kirby

Moving on to tonight's late game in Seattle, where the Mariners will host the Tigers. Similarly to my pick above, I have my eye on the run total over in this one. Both pitchers are coming off strong first halves to the 2023 campaign, but the underlying numbers suggest incoming regression for each. This matchup doesn't feature particularly high-caliber offenses, though there's enough to overcome the 7.5-run mark.

Michael Lorenzen landed his first career All-Star appearance this season, but the numbers aren't all that pretty. He carries a 4.47 xERA, alongside mediocre figures like a .449 xSLG, .262 xBA, and a 90.4 MPH average exit velocity. Lorenzen amounts to a below-average pitcher, opening the door for this Seattle offense to strike. The Mariners bring a middling offense, scoring 4.5 runs per game, including a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. They're not the Rangers, but Seattle can certainly take advantage of Lorenzen's deficiencies.

On the flip side, George Kirby takes the bump for the Mariners. He's a more capable arm than Lorenzen, as evidenced by his 3.09 ERA through 17 starts this season. However, there's also room for regression in Kirby's profile. He carries a decent 3.73 xERA, headlined by his outstanding 2.3% walk rate. Looking beyond the fact that Kirby doesn't issue free passes, he does get hit harder than the average pitcher. Kirby sports a .418 xSLG, 40.5% hard-hit rate, and .260 xBA. Notably, left-handed hitters are slugging .457 against him this season, which is good news for a Detroit lineup featuring lefties Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, and Zach McKinstry.

I'm not expecting either team to light it up today, but there's enough evidence that they can overcome a very low 7.5-run total. Lorenzen and Kirby are each pitching worse than they're given credit for, and I look for one or both of them to stumble in this one.

Pick: Over 7.5 Total Runs (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit

Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!

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