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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/7/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. That success has rolled into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, July 7, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 44-32-2 (+3.68 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Marlins
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: MIA +105
PHI: Zack Wheeler | MIA: Sandy Alcantara
I'll start the weekend with two money lines, one a full-game money line and the other a first five money line.
We'll head down to Miami first, as the Phillies head into town. The Phillies will send Zack Wheeler (7-4, 4.03 ERA) to the mound. Wheeler has had an up-and-down 2023 but has been a bit unlucky, given his 3.39 xERA and 3.57 xFIP. He gets a solid matchup against the Marlins, coming into this one with a projected 3.34 SIERA. The Marlins project to a .307 wOBA against Wheeler's pitch types and a .320 weighted wOBA.
The Marlins will send Sandy Alcantara (3-7, 4.93 ERA) to the mound. The reigning NL Cy Young Winner has had a down year but also has been a touch unlucky, as shown by his 4.22 xERA and 4.17 xFIP. It's a tougher matchup against the Phillies, who have seemingly beaten him every time he matches up with them. They project to a .336 wOBA against his pitch types and a .332 weighted wOBA. Sandy projects to a 4.24 SIERA.
We can get the Phillies, who have the best-projected bullpen SIERA on the slate as well, at -125 on FanDuel, I'm running that to win a unit.
Pick: Phillies Money Line (-125), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.25 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mets @ Padres
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: SD -125
NYM: Justin Verlander | SD: Yu Darvish
I'll wrap things up with a first-five money line out in San Diego.
The Mets will send Justin Verlander (3-4, 3.66 ERA), who has been much better after a slow start to 2023. He brings in a 3.61 xERA, 4.24 xFIP, and a projected 4.05 SIERA in this one. While the Padres have been struggling lately, they project to a .335 wOBA against Verlander's pitch types and a .331 weighted wOBA against Verlander today.
The Padres will send Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.84 ERA) to the mound. Darvish is due for some serious regression, given his 3.64 xERA and 3.75 xFIP. He projects to a 3.86 SIERA against an equally-struggling Mets team. The Mets project to a .290 wOBA against Darvish's pitch types and a .322 weighted wOBA against Darvish today.
Both teams have poor bullpens, so if the run total stays low throughout the first five innings a live over may be in play. Speaking of the first five innings, we'll grab the Padres' first-five money line, which we can get at -128 on FanDuel.
Pick: Padres F5 Money Line (-128), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.28 unit to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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