RADIO
The 2023 fantasy football season is nearly here. One of the most popular fantasy football sayings is that you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it.
That saying means fantasy players want to avoid first-round draft picks who end up being a bust. While your first-round selection won’t win you the league, it could cost you any chance at winning the title.
Instead of only looking at the first round, I’ve provided the safest draft pick for every AFC team.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
AFC EAST
Josh Allen (QB – BUF)
Last year, Josh Allen was the QB2, averaging 24.7 fantasy points per game. However, the Bills' quarterback was the QB1 in 2020 and 2021, averaging at least 23.7 fantasy points per game in both years. Allen is a fantasy superstar because he has thrown for at least 4,200 yards and 35 touchdowns in three consecutive seasons. He has also totaled at least 760 rushing yards and six touchdowns each of the past two years.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
Many were worried Tyreek Hill would struggle in Miami without a superstar quarterback. However, the veteran was the WR2 in 2022, averaging 16.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. His 119 receptions on 170 targets for 1,710 receiving yards last season were all career highs. More importantly, Hill still averaged 14.2 fantasy points per game in the 4.5 contests without Tua Tagovailoa.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE)
After splitting the backfield with Damien Harris as a rookie, Rhamondre Stevenson was the RB11 last year, averaging 12.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The second-year star also had the first 1,000-yard rushing season of his career. However, the uptick in passing work was the main reason Stevenson became a fantasy star. He had only 14 receptions as a rookie before leading the team with 69 last season.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ)
Despite playing with four subpar quarterbacks as a rookie, Garrett Wilson ended the year as the WR19, averaging 10.2 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The former Ohio State star finished 15th in the NFL with 1,103 receiving yards. The second-year receiver will now be catching passes from Aaron Rodgers in 2023. Fantasy managers knew Wilson was going to be a fantasy star after he dominated the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 with Joe Flacco at quarterback.
AFC NORTH
Mark Andrews (TE – BAL)
Despite having a down year by his standards, Mark Andrews still ended last season as the TE4, averaging 10.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, the veteran has averaged at least 10.1 fantasy points per game every year since his rookie season. While the Ravens added Odell Beckham Jr. and Zay Flowers this offseason, Andrews will remain Lamar Jackson’s go-to weapon.
Ja’Marr Chase (WR – CIN)
Ja'Marr Chase walked into the NFL and immediately became a fantasy superstar. He was the WR5 as a rookie, averaging 15.5 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Despite missing five games last year with a hip injury, the former LSU star was the WR12 for the season and the WR5 on a points-per-game basis, averaging 16.6 fantasy points per contest. Unless Joe Burrow suffers a season-ending injury early in the year, the third-year receiver will have another top-five finish in 2023.
Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)
While the former Georgia star isn’t the flashiest running back, Nick Chubb has been one of the most consistent. The veteran has averaged at least 14.7 half-point PPR fantasy points per game every year since his rookie season. More importantly, Chubb had 1,525 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns last year, both career highs. While some are worried the veteran’s role will change this season, Chubb remains one of the top tackle-breaking running backs in the NFL.
Najee Harris (RB – PIT)
After having an outstanding rookie season, Najee Harris struggled last year. He ended the year as the RB14, averaging 11.9 fantasy points per game. However, the second-year running back was playing with a foot injury. Harris still finished the season strong. Over his final eight games, the former Alabama star averaged 86.4 scrimmage yards and 14.7 fantasy points per game. The Steelers improved their offensive line this offseason, so fantasy managers shouldn’t be surprised if Harris has a top-10 finish this year.
AFC SOUTH
Dameon Pierce (RB – HOU)
Yes, the Texans added Devin Singletary this offseason. However, the veteran won’t replace Dameon Pierce as the starting running back in Houston. Last year, the rookie was a top-15 running back before an injury forced him to miss the final four weeks. More importantly, the former Gator nearly had 1,000 rushing yards despite missing a quarter of the year. While Singletary limits his upside, Pierce remains a safe floor option in fantasy.
Jonathan Taylor (RB – IND)
Injuries and a dysfunctional Indianapolis offense severely limited Jonathan Taylor's fantasy production last year. However, this superstar was a top-six running back for the first two years of his career. Don't forget that in 2021, he was the RB1, averaging 20.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, Taylor is one of the top big-play running backs in the NFL, with more than 15% of his rushing attempts going for 10 or more yards over the past two seasons.
Christian Kirk (WR – JAC)
While Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne Jr. have more fantasy upside than Christian Kirk, both come with more risk. Kirk has been productive over the past two years. He was the WR26 in 2021, averaging 9.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Last season, the veteran was the WR11, averaging a career-high 11.8 points per game. The addition of Ridley will likely hurt Kirk’s fantasy value, but the former Texas A&M star will still be one of the safest players on the Jaguars.
Derrick Henry (RB – TEN)
Derrick Henry is arguably the safest early-round running back to draft. He has averaged at least 17.0 half-point PPR fantasy points per game each of the past four seasons, including 20 or more points twice. He also averaged 24.3 touches per game during those four years. Once you factor in the Titans' poor receiving corps, Henry should have another 370-plus touch season in 2023.
AFC WEST
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN)
Denver's offense is hard to predict. Russell Wilson is coming off the worst year of his career, while Sean Payton is taking over as the Broncos' new head coach. However, fantasy players should feel confident drafting Jerry Jeudy this year. The former Alabama star is coming off the best season of his career, averaging 11.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Jeudy also ended the year on fire, averaging 16.8 fantasy points per game over the final five weeks.
Travis Kelce (TE – KC)
While Derrick Henry might be the safest RB to draft, Travis Kelce could be the safest overall player in fantasy football. The superstar has finished as a top-two tight end each of the past seven seasons. Furthermore, he averaged 15.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game in 2022, four points per game more than any other tight end. More importantly, Kelce gives fantasy managers a weekly advantage at the tight end position, as the veteran scores like a top-five wide receiver almost every year.
Davante Adams (WR – LV)
Despite going from Aaron Rodgers to Derek Carr, Davante Adams remained an elite fantasy wide receiver in 2022. The superstar was the WR3 last year, averaging 16.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. The veteran also led the NFL with 14 receiving touchdowns.
Last season was the sixth time over the past seven years that Adams had double-digit touchdowns. It was the fourth time over that time period that he had 12 or more touchdowns. Even with the downgrade at quarterback in Las Vegas, Adams will likely remain a top-10 wide receiver in 2023.
Austin Ekeler (RB – LAC)
Last year, Austin Ekeler was the RB1, averaging 18.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. It was the third time in the past four years that the superstar running back averaged at least 16.4 fantasy points per contest. Furthermore, the veteran had 18 touchdowns after totaling 20 the year before. While the Chargers improved their receiving corps this offseason, Ekeler remains a top-two running back.
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