RADIO
Byron's free PGA betting picks for the 2023 John Deere Classic. Breaking $100 is a golf betting guide, using $100 across various bets.
Rickie Fowler, ladies and gentlemen! Talk about getting away with murder. In regulation he was a few feet from the hazard off the tee on his final hole, and then getting the US Open "Fitz TIO" that may or may not have helped him on his approach shot on the deciding playoff hole that he landed up winning after sticking his approach from the rough, closer than either Hadwin or Morikawa could manage from the fairway. I am not salty, as I did not have an Adam Schenk who finished T7 or a Sepp Straka who is arguably more frustrating after entering R3 in T4 and then going bogey, double bogey, to end his chances of contention last week.
Regardless, it goes to show that being in contention all the time, eventually lands up paying off, with a 71% T20 rate this year. Being in the mix enough seems to really help you get over the finish line at the end of the day! Despite Homa and Im having way more T10s than Fowler, his form and consistency landed up paying off. Congrats, Rickie!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights ($15)
5 golfers, 7 times return, it is time for a winner!
Emiliano Grillo ($4.56 @ +3300 on Circa)
The second-best ball striker in the field, is... Emiliano Grillo, who finished 2nd here last year and just finished T15 at the Travelers and gaining +8.18 on Approach and Putting. He may also just have won the Charles Schwab four starts ago, which does not hurt his prospects, in a field like this, at a price in the 30s.
This price is what got me the most enticed on my twitter friend, who has gained the 4th most strokes over the last 24 rounds. What is MOST enticing is the fact that he is the leading "good shot %" gainer from a weighted approach standpoint, which means he is gaining +0.5 strokes on a single approach shot this year, more than anybody else. His putter is also 8th in SG putting over the last 24 rounds, which is not terrible heading to a course that has seen multiple -20 or better winners. Course history, recent form, and some sizzling ball striking are a few appealing aspects of Grillo's game as we head into the Quad Cities of the Midwest (2.5 hours from me).
Sepp Straka ($1.93 @ +6000 on FanDuel)
Redemption tour? Holy cow! T4 heading into Saturday and then starting your round with bogey, double-bogey to lose -7.05 strokes (76) in the midst of a birdie fest screams like you ran out of Diet Coke on Friday night, Sepp? Can we maybe continue to lean on that approach play that has gained +1.5 per round in 16 of the last 22 rounds he has played? He also landed up losing strokes putting at the Rocket Mortgage Classic for the first time in 4 starts...
We are going to hope that Diet Tony Stark can reassemble his aluminum Diet Coke Man suit and get it functioning at optimal capacity this week after being right in the mix before recording his worst round of the year and 8th worst round in 377 strolls around any course in my database... what... the... heck??? Sepp? Hopefully he can shake that round from his memory and bounce back to victory at a price that is ultra-affordable for somebody with multiple playoffs and a win on his resume, in a field, that is, arguably, as strong as my left arm (I am right-handed).
Eric Cole ($3.43 @ +3500 on DraftKings)
At 35-1 we get a PGA professional who has a T6, T5, and playoff loss in 3 off his last 6 non-elevated events. That is 3 top 6s in his half dozen smaller field events. He is trending. And he is trending hard. Top 40 finishes in his last 3 elevated starts adds even more bulk to the giant oil tanker that is Eric Cole, about to dock at the John Deere Classic. This dude is straight up, Jamming!!!
His putter has gained +1.5 per round in the last 15 if we remove the -3.2 he lost at the Travelers on Saturday and if we remove the -1.43 he lost in R2 of the RBC Canadian, his approach play over the last 15 is also gaining +0.51 per round. He needs to handle his driver a little more responsibly this week, but that is about all he needs to be concerned about, as the rest of his game is looking like it is poised for victory.
Adam Schenk $3.39 @ +3500 on DraftKings)
Three of his last five starts have been T7, T7, and 2nd. Those were all in fields with moderately more start power and now we head to a course where the two starts prior to his WD in 2022, were T4 and T6. Recent form, meet course history. Adam Schenk has just been playing sensational golf recently and now that he is heading back to Silvis where he has fond memories, his confidence entering the week should have some peaking heights. There is A LOT to like about Adam Schenk entering the week and a number in the 30s for somebody playing this kind of golf at a course he has fared well at in the past, seems like a bit of value, if you are asking me.
Chez Reavie ($1.87 @ +6500 on FanDuel)
In his last 12 rounds, Chez Reavie, has gained +1.39 per round on approach. He is also a renowned putter, gaining the 7th most strokes with the flat stick over the last two dozen rounds, the same amount of strokes he has gained on approach over that time. His game seems to have found a new level with the irons to add on to his stellar putting, which, at 65-1 seems like a might fine number considering he ranks 1st in comp course history. A T4 at the Travelers is enough to know that he is knocking on the door of victory, and he is knocking with both his putter and every iron and fairway wood that has gained him ridiculous amount of strokes recently.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($80)
Recap of Last Week
Dylan Wu was our only salvation in this department. A T24 for a +500 T20 Norrman was agonizingly close, yet, here we are, going 1 for 7 on placements. This year really has been boom or bust. Hopefully we can get one or two placements across the line this week.
This Week's Placements
$10 on each of the following bets
- Kevin Yu +325 T20
- Eric Cole +185 T20
- Nick Taylor +210 T20
- Emiliano Grillo +185 T20
- Dylan Wu +125 T40
- Ryan Palmer -110 T40
- Nate Lashley +163 T40
- Adam Schenk -150 T40 OR +163 T20 (we going T20 as + money is appealing)
Matchups ($0)
Matchups are my favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets as you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut.
Recap Last Week (1-3-0) -$31.91
Justin Thomas virtually finishing last in R1 was not on my bingo card. Tom Kim missing the cut to lose to Cam Davis, landed us a reverse sweep, and Alex Noren recording his first top-10 and 2nd top-20 in his last 14 starts that include 8 missed cuts, seems like a fair way to lose the Svensson matchup... how?
The only salvation was Justin Suh who made yet another cut, but lost -7 strokes over the weekend, which still beat Detry who missed the cut. Wild times.
This Week's Matchups
Nothing is popping this week 🙁
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Denny McCarthy $5 Top 5 +400
Well, we finally hit a Farewell Fiver, and it probably should have been just a straight up outright on Rickie, but we will take our $18 off the $5 we bet on him to finish T5. This week we are going to be shooting for a little T5 action on Denny McCarthy, as we think he has as good a shot of winning this week as anybody. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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