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Tommy Bell's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/30/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Friday RotoBallers! My name is Tommy Bell, and I'm thrilled to be back helping out in the MLB Betting world here at RotoBaller. I helped out with some pitcher/hitter prop bets, which came up a bit short, but sides and totals are where I'm most comfortable, so I feel right at home helping out with this piece today and Saturday.
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In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, June 30, 2023. It's a typical Friday slate with mostly evening games outside of a lone Cubs afternoon matinee. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. Let's jump in and get our weekend off to a great start!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Guardians @ Cubs
O/U: 8.5 | ML: CHI -165
CLE: Cal Quantrill | CHI: Justin Steele
In their return from London, the Cubs dropped three home games in a row en route to a Phillies sweep. Not exactly the "Welcome Home" party the Cubbies faithful were hoping for. Well, wipe the slate clean. It's a Friday at the end of June, everyone and their brother will be skipping out of work early, and beer cup snakes will line the bleachers at Wrigley Field. There may not be a more enjoyable atmosphere in Major League than a sunny Friday afternoon in Wrigleyville.
The Cleveland Guardians come to town one day after losing to the Kansas City Royals in extra innings. They will activate Cal Quantrill (shoulder) off the Injured List for this start, and he's exactly the type of pick-me-up these Chicago bats need. The 28-year-old let up a total of 20 runs in 20 innings combined over his last four starts prior to the injury, walking eight batters in that span. Perhaps the injury played a role in those numbers, but the once-promising starter has struggled mightily with consistency all season.
Southpaw Justin Steele takes the bump for the Cubs, and he's been exceptional, sporting a 3.85 xFIP to go with his 2.62 ERA. Even more encouraging, the 27-year-old avoids hard contact to the tune of just 20.1% while allowing line drives just 16.7% of the time. He's tough to barrel up! Cleveland ranks 26th in the MLB against left-handed pitching with a .678 OPS and .297 wOBA. Sign me up for another quality Steele start.
To cap it off, the Cubs bullpen should be fully available while I expect the Guardians to be without Sam Hentges, Trevor Stephan, and Emmanuel Clase. Those are big absences if Quantrill exits in the fifth frame and the game is tight. I'll take Chicago to go ahead early and then extend that lead once the bullpens come into play. Take the alternate run line to help bring down the juice. Then scoot out of work early, crack a cold one, and enjoy the greatest Friday afternoon tradition in sports.
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (-130) DraftKings Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Yankees @ Cardinals
O/U: 9 | ML: STL -115
NYY: Luis Severino | STL: Matthew Liberatore
The Yankees were finally able to find some offense in Oakland, scoring 10 runs in a comfortable victory on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were embarrassed at home in a 14-0 loss to the Astros. New York will travel into St. Louis with hopes of building on this recent success, and they're gifted with a struggling left-handed starter in Matthew Liberatore. The 23-year-old sports a 5.60 ERA, which is negatively supported by a brutal 5.68 xFIP. Liberatore has a high walk rate, low strikeout rate, and allows way too much hard contact. That's a juicy combo for the Yanks righty-heavy lineup
Luis Severino hasn't found consistency yet, but he has shown flashes of the stuff that made him so dangerous years ago. The much larger park in Busch Stadium should help him put together a strong start by avoiding long balls, something he's been much better at during his last three outings. The Cardinals lineup is still dangerous, but it worries me much less against right-handers with good movement like Severino. If the 29-year old can post a quality start, I trust the Yankees offense to get us a win here. Taking the excellent Cardinals bullpen out of the equation provides some peace of mind as well.
Pick: Yankees - 1st 5 Innings (-110), DraftKings Sportsbook
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Diamondbacks @ Angels
O/U: 9.5 | ML: LAA -150
ARI: Tommy Henry | LAA: Griffin Canning
The Diamondbacks were dealt a big blow when Corbin Carroll exited early on Thursday. It sounds like the young star could avoid an IL stint, but I would be shocked to see him in the lineup on Friday. That downgrade on offense paired with Arizona's worst starter on the mound provides some value for the home Angels in a late Friday night tilt.
Southpaw Tommy Henry is in the midst of a rough stretch, allowing a home run in each of his last four starts. His xFIP has jumped to 5.34, and he's striking out less than six batters per nine innings. The Angels have yet to keep their entire lineup healthy all at once, but they still have a plethora of right-handed bats that should take advantage of a young lefty struggling to miss bats.
Griffin Canning has quietly figured things out. The 27-year-old has gone at least five innings in each of his last six starts, allowing just nine total runs in that span, resulting in a 3.99 xFIP and an encouraging 23% strikeout rate. By no means has he reached "Ace" status yet, but the consistent work allows us to exploit a diminished offense and questionable starter on the other side. This "First Five" bet is a bit juicy, but every arrow points towards the Angels on Friday night. Let's get some great at-bats from Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout early to allow Canning to cruise to a five-inning win!
Pick: Angels F5 ML (-150), DraftKings Sportsbook
Good luck, Rotoballers!
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