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Making the right trades can be crucial to championship success in fantasy baseball. It's almost as important as the draft, if not more. While most trades can have a significant impact on your fantasy team, it’s the deals where you acquire undervalued players and witness their production improve that can truly tip the scales in your favor in terms of the standings.
The same can certainly be said about trading away players at the right time when they have the most fantasy trade value. Those deals could happen in the second week of April or the last week of August, but they’re impactful all the same.
Here are some candidates who are currently undervalued and worth pursuing in trades, as well as some overvalued players who you should consider dealing if they currently occupy a spot on your roster.
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Undervalued Players To Trade For
Teoscar Hernandez, OF, Seattle Mariners
Hernandez was mentioned in this column earlier this season as an undervalued player to trade for considering all the loud contact he was making, the chasm between his wOBA and xwOBA, and a rather low BABIP.
At the time, the slugger was hitting just .191 with a .255 on-base percentage, two home runs, and a .170 ISO in 51 plate appearances.
Fast forward to late June and Hernandez’s season-long stat line is still being impacted by that slow start. Or rather, his numbers still look decidedly unideal.
On the season, the former Blue Jays outfielder is batting .250 with a .296 on-base percentage, 15 home runs, and four stolen bases in 328 plate appearances. He also ranks in just the sixth percentile league-wide in strikeout rate with a 32.1% metric and his walk rate (5.2%, ninth percentile) and whiff rate (34.4%, seventh percentile) aren’t all that much better.
But, Hernandez is also sporting a .342 xwOBA when he is making contact, a number that's still noticeably higher than his actual wOBA (.320). Elsewhere, the 30-year-old’s 13.6% barrel rate is right in line with his career numbers and his .490 xSLG sits in the 86th percentile league-wide.
TeOscar Hernandez’s Barrel Rates By Season:
- 2016: 4.1%-barrel rate, 112 PA
- 2017: 17.0%-barrel rate, 95 PA
- 2018: 15.5%-barrel rate, 523 PA
- 2019: 11.7%-barrel rate, 464 PA
- 2020: 18.0%-barrel rate, 207 PA
- 2021: 13.9%-barrel rate, 595 PA
- 2022: 15.0%-barrel rate, 535 PA
- 2023: 13.6%-barrel rate, 324 PA
And that slow start from before that Hernandez was going through? That’s a thing of the past.
Since May 3, the outfielder is hitting .285 with a .335 on-base percentage, eight home runs, three stolen bases, a 12.8% barrel rate and a 49.6% hard-hit rate in 203 plate appearances.
But, in part because of that slow start and a generally low walk rate, it might make another fantasy manager in your league more apt to trade Hernandez away. If that’s the case and you’re in need of power production in the outfield, Teoscar Hernandez makes for an ideal trade target.
Overvalued Players To Trade Away
Scott McGough, RP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Scott McGough has largely been excellent for the Arizona Diamondbacks this season, pitching to a 2.41 ERA and a 3.55 FIP in 41 innings spread across 36 innings. He’s added 49 strikeouts in the process while scattering just 14 walks and five home runs.
The 33-year-old has been particularly effective in missing bats. Armed with a split-finger offering (40.4% whiff rate) and a slider (45.2% whiff rate) that are both sporting whiff rates north of 40%, it probably comes as no surprise that the reliever ranks rather highly in terms of overall bat-missing metrics.
Entering play Wednesday, McGough ranked in the 95th percentile in chase rate (35.5%), the 87th percentile in strikeout rate (30.8%), and the 85th percentile (31.7%) in overall whiff rate.
At times, the right-hander has looked locked into something of a timeshare in Arizona where the closer’s role is concerned.
McGough (six saves), Andrew Chafin (eight saves), and Miguel Castro (seven saves) have accounted for all but one of the Diamondbacks' converted saves this season, though McGough does own five of the team’s seven saves in June.
And that right there is the crucial bit, as the right-hander may very well be on his way to establishing himself as the primary closer in Arizona.
However, this is a repeat of a trend we’ve seen earlier in the season with the Diamondbacks, only with Chafin as the primary ninth-inning option. In March and April, the left-hander logged four of Arizona’s seven saves. No other pitcher registered more than one.
The next month, Arizona’s eight saves were split evenly between Chafin and Castro with four apiece.
If anything, this has the look of a continued committee situation. And while McGough could very well distance himself from the competition as the top option for saves in Arizona, there’s a decent chance that won’t be the case due to how the team has utilized their bullpen in 2023.
If another manager in your league is buying into the fact that McGough will be the primary closer moving forward and is willing to part with fantasy trade capital that lines up with a full-time closer with above-average bat-missing ability, now might be the time to explore trading away Scott McGough.
Nick Pratto, 1B, Kansas City Royals
With Vinnie Pasquantino now out for the season, Nick Pratto seems all but assured of a regular starting gig for the rest of the season in Kansas City.
Of course, that was probably already the case (speculatively speaking) anyways prior to Pasquantino getting hurt on a Royals team that has consistently struggled to score runs, but the injury certainly underscores things for Pratto.
The 14th-overall pick in the 2017 draft, Pratto has already established a career-high for plate appearances in the Majors this season with 216 as of the beginning of play on Wednesday.
After hitting just .184 with a .271 on-bae percentage and seven home runs in 182 plate appearances for the Royals last season as a rookie, the first baseman is well on his way to establishing a number of other career highs.
He’s currently batting .261 with a .347 on-base percentage, five home runs, and a stolen base in 216 plate appearances, providing plenty of production for both the Royals and fantasy managers alike.
However, there are some warning signs to keep in mind here in terms of regression coming for the infielder.
In his 216 plate appearances this season, Pratto is also sporting a .411 BABIP, the third highest among batters with at least 200 plate appearances, trailing only Brandon Marsh (.416) and Luis Arraez (.414).
And while Pratto is sporting a 44.6% hard-it rate and a 9.8% barrel rate, he’s also striking 36.1% of the time. In part due to that, his xwOBA sits at just .324, ranking in the 49th percentile league-wide.
A high BABIP and high strikeout rate are never a good combination, and the fact that the 24-year-old is posting inflated numbers in both statistical categories is hardly ideal.
That he ranks in the 42nd percentile or lower in xSLG (42nd), xBA (33rd), average exit velocity (27th) and whiff rate (sixth) doesn’t exactly help either.
Pratto has hit leadoff for the Royals almost exclusively in June when he’s been in the lineup, so the added plate appearances should help offset the potential regression coming from a fantasy standpoint, but now might be the time to consider trading the former first-round pick if he’s on your roster.
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