RADIO
Denny McCarthy has been balling out folks. He is doing it with all areas of his game and a win for one of the best putters in the game is around the corner. Keegan Bradley is tied for the lead with Denny, essentially getting home field support as he is a Northeast native. Both of these guys sit at -15 which is only 4 shots shy of the winning score of -19 last year. The rainy weather really has made this course gettable and we can expect that to continue with rain forecasted tomorrow.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric. More often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player. Every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 2 Analysis
Best Scores
Ownership
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 3 Strategy
Everybody is going off within 2 hours of each other, making a weather edge rather nonexistent. We are going to target low owned golfers to try gain some leverage on the field.
Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for tomorrow. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the PGA TOUR SHOWDOWN $10K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY], which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Scottie Scheffler doesn't usually have more than one dud of a round. That dud was today. We can expect fireworks from the World No. 1 tomorrow. He is $900 more than Rory who outscored him by 6 today. A great leverage opportunity.
Patrick Cantlay sits in T22 alongside Scottie and shot -2 today with at least two water balls. He is due for a big round on a course he has had great results on in the past. With Rahm missing the cut, he is now the top biridie maker in the field.
$9,000+
There is a lot of chalk in the $8k range, so we are going to load up $9k golfers to try gain some ownership leverage. Sahith Theegala and Tony Finau should provide us with some solid sub 10% leverage in this range.
Viktor Hovland will be the one chalky golfer we lean on at $9,800. Sitting in T10 he is prone for another strong round shooting -5 today to get him within striking distance.
$8,000+
As we mentioned earlier, it looks like there will be about 3 guys who are not 13% in ownership at least. Denny McCarthy, Russell Henley, Eric Cole and Tom Kim will all be pushing 20%.
As pivots off of them, we are rolling out Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama who are looking 8% and 13% respectively. Rickie has made the weekend off the back of a 65 today and Hideki is one of the top R3 scorers in the field.
$7,000+
With very little $8k action and a lot of $9 golfers, we are going to pepper this $7k range. Cameron Young is flirting with playing better golf and is going to be roughly 5% ownership. Sepp Straka is also one of the few guys who can really spike with the putter and is a solid R3 scorer for his price tag.
Now we get to some more chalky options, but for the most part, the majority of the guys already mentioned above allow us to load up on a few of these guys. Brian Harman, Jason Day, Kevin Yu, Stephan Jaeger and Kevin Yu all have been playing well and check at least two of the 5 yellow criteria in the power rankings screenshot.
$6,000+
Carson Young, Sam Stevens, Ben Martina and David Lipsky should give us some solid sub 3% options at affordable prices. Kevin Tway is going to be our $6,200 cheapie and had a solid day ball striking in R2.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership or points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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