Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2023 U.S. Open

Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2023 US Open from Los Angeles Country Club.

Widely considered the seminal work of the man who quite literally wrote the book on Golf Architecture in America, Los Angeles Country Club hasn’t received nearly the same exposure as other historic venues in the U.S. Open rotation. However, after a nearly 50-year struggle with membership to allow a Major Championship to be contested here, the 2023 U.S. Open will finally provide a “Hello World” style introduction for this storied club into the eyes of the golfing public. 

George C. Thomas, the man behind LACC, was among the first great American architects to shift his focus to the west coast. His designs at Bel Air Country Club, Riviera, and LACC North are still regarded as some of the best examples of strategic design in the country, and his ability to naturally integrate his courses into the existing landscape is still influential to architects in modern-day.

It is fitting, then, that the first U.S. Open held in Los Angeles in 75 years will be contested on a course designed by the man that helped put L.A. on the map as a golfing city. Here’s everything you need to know about LACC North and the 2023 U.S. Open.

The Golf Course

Given that LACC North hasn’t been used as a competitive venue outside of the 2017 Walker Cup, it’s only natural that we begin to look for comparable courses for which we have a few more historic reference points. Riviera would be the obvious comp given the close proximity between the two courses, as well as Thomas’s hand in each, but LACC features some very key differences from its sister course 20 minutes down the road:

Agronomically, Riviera is a lot more similar to our traditional CA courses like Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach. Much of the tournament week talk in Pacific Palisades revolves around Riviera’s Poa Annua greens and Kikuyu rough. LACC, on the other hand, features wall-to-wall Bermuda grass in its fairways and rough, with pure Bentgrass green complexes. 

While Riviera places a lot more demand on shot-shaping through tight corridors off the tee, LACC tends to provide more generous landing areas. Although wayward misses are penalized severely at the North Course, players won’t have to contend nearly as much with being blocked out by tight doglegs surrounded by towering Eucalyptus trees. Instead, driving the ball at LACC is much more comparable to a course like Augusta National: where judging the runout of tee shots on severely canted terrain will be crucial in setting up the angle for your second shot. 

Playing nearly 200 yards shorter than the North Course, Riviera doesn’t test long-iron play in nearly the same way as LACC does. With 4 Par 3’s over 170, 6 Par 4’s over 480, and 3 Par 5’s, it’s not out of the question that players could have 12 or 13 approach shots from >175 yards. If you’re not comfortable with hitting towering long-iron approach shots into firm greens, I don’t believe you’ll be long for this place.

USGA Setup/Time of the year: as historically challenging as Riviera typically plays every year on Tour, LACC in the middle of June (and in the hands of the USGA), will almost certainly prove to be a few steps above in terms of overall difficulty. With less than an inch of rainfall in Los Angeles since the start of April, I’d expect these fairways and greens to be as firm as any U.S. Open course in recent memory, and we’ve already seen videos emerge of some gnarly 4-5” rough around the greens here. Carnage is an absolute certainty, and the setup this week will put as much strain on a player's all-around game as we’ll see anywhere on Tour.

If you are in search of a closer comp, I think Shinnecock Hills, host of the 2018 U.S. Open, makes the most sense apples to apples. Both courses feature a substantial amount of room off the tee, exceptionally firm turf conditions, and an abundance of elevated green complexes with penal run-offs on all sides. Notably, this was also the last U.S. Open won at an over-par score (albeit with a bit of scrutiny from players towards the USGA on their Saturday setup), but LACC has the possibility of playing just as difficult if organizers want to get a bit devilish.

Southern Hills and Memorial Park make a bit of sense as well. Southern Hills with its similar agronomy and a ton of elevation change; Memorial Park with its elevated greens, shaved run-off areas, and emphasis on driving and long-iron play. Notably, both LACC & Southern Hills have undergone recent restorations from Gil Hanse and even shared the same superintendent for a time in Russ Myers. 

Finally, I’d point to Augusta National, who each share generous landing areas off the tee combined with a steep penalty for wayward misses and a ton of natural undulation, an abundance of long irons, tight chipping areas around the greens, and expansive, severely sloped Bentgrass putting surfaces.

The Winning Profile

Total Driving - look at the last half-decade of U.S Open Champions, and it’s tough to find a player who wasn’t a prolific driver of the golf ball (Brooks Koepka, Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, even little old Matt Fitzpatrick was second in total driving last year and had gained strokes OTT in 9 of his last 10 starts). 

And although the landing areas at LACC are wider than we see at most Open venues, there’s still an abundance of trouble waiting to gobble up wayward tee shots, and the rolling topography of the property will require you to shape/start the ball on a certain side of the fairway to access the optimal angle into these greens. In short, don’t let the 43-yard wide Fairway Width deter you, you’ll need a fair amount of precision with the driver this week too. I’d personally be weighing accuracy over distance in a vacuum.

Long-Iron Play - again, with 4 Par 3’s over 170 yards, 6 Par 4’s over 480, and 3 Par 5’s, It’s not out of the question that players could have 12 or 13 approach shots from >175 yards. Given how penal I believe these green side surrounds will play, if I don’t trust your approach play from 7/8-iron on up, you’re a complete stay-away this week.

Scrambling Acumen - Like Augusta National, I think the firm turf conditions and variety of greenside shots required by LACC have the potential to expose those with short-game deficiencies. Even the best iron players in the field will be missing a fair share of greens in regulation, and as such, I’d can’t imagine anyone winning this week without their short game shouldering a heavy part of the load.

Lag putters - Given the speed and the sheer amount of undulation on these greens, I think many guys’ #1 aim on putts outside 20 feet will be to avoid leaving themselves a ticklish 3-4 footer. Approach Putt Performance/3-Putt Avoidance are both key stats in this regard. Tap-in pars are a man’s best friend this week, and as such, touch on and around the greens will be even more of an emphasis for me.

A few fun unquantifiables: Course Management, Resilience in Difficult Scoring Conditions, SG: Attitude - This is a course that’s practically guaranteed to bite back at some point or another, and as such, having a bankable track record in U.S. Opens and in difficult scoring conditions, in general, cannot be understated. Brooks Koepka was a perfect illustration of this at Oak Hill. Fairways, Greens, Two-putt, never making worse than Bogey. Who’s willing to play that boring, plodder style of golf? I get the feeling that patience will be tested as much as we’ll see all year, and impatience will be just as harshly punished.

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be important to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside where he is on the golf course and which holes he still has left to play.

Unlike your traditional U.S. Open venue, there looks to be a lot more variety in LACC's routing than your usual par/bogey fests at Torrey Pines or Brookline. The front side, in particular, features two very reachable Par 5's (1 and 8), as well as a 330-yard Par 4 that will present the opportunity to go for the green if players so choose. Time will tell what the optimal strategy on the sixth hole will be, but at the very least, a flip lob wedge in hand should make this hole one of the clearer birdie chances on property this week.

Taking advantage of the opportunities available on the front side will be essential as players make the turn towards the inward half, as the back-nine of the North Course is nowhere near as forgiving. Starting at the 290-yard Par 3 11th, players will face a 507-yard Par 4 at 13, a diabolical short Par 3 at 15 (be prepared for many bogeys from <120 yards), and an arduous closing stretch from 16-18 featuring Par 4's of 542, 520, and 492 yards.

In the live market, these final eight holes will be the ones I'll be particularly keyed in on, as I'd expect an even-par 35 on this stretch will gain multiple strokes on the field, and for players starting on the back-nine Thursday/Friday, these difficult holes will give bettors a quick litmus test on the state of their games (as well as potential buy-low opportunities for those that make a few early bogies).

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The Betting Card

Scottie Scheffler (15-2)

It’s been just three months since Scottie Scheffler’s dominant five-shot win at TPC Sawgrass, but it still feels as if Scottie’s been on the precipice of something more for a while now. Since that victory in March, Scheffler has made six starts, finished no worse than 11th, with 4 Top 5’s, and on two occasions, he’s been just one shot away from a sudden death playoff. Oh yeah, and that’s all within a stretch of him being one of the five worst putters on the entire PGA Tour (losing over 3.3 shots/tournament).

How is this possible, you ask? Well, in those 24 rounds since Sawgrass, Scheffler has put together a historic run of tee-to-green play. He rates out 1st in Total Driving, 1st in SG: APP, 1st in SG: ARG, 1st in SG: T2G, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance, and 1st in Proximity >175 yards. I can’t remember a time when a player has led the Tour in this many consequential categories, and the number next to his name doesn’t even quite do justice to the dominance he’s displayed.

At over 3.5 shots gained per round from T2G, the difference between Scheffler and #2 Patrick Cantlay on a per-round basis is the same margin that separates Cantlay and the 70th-best T2G player in this field, Kurt Kitayama. In fact, over the last 24 rounds on the PGA Tour, Scheffler has gained DOUBLE the number of strokes as anyone else in this field in this category. Truly historic ball-striking splits.  

Obviously, the caveat with Scottie comes on the greens. And while I can’t argue for one second that I’m completely confident with him standing over a 6-foot putt, Scheffler is notably 3rd on the PGA Tour this season in Approach Putting Performance and 5th in 3-Putt Avoidance. He still displays remarkable touch when putting from distance, and on greens where I expect the difficulty inside 10 feet to be at an all-time high, his ability to generate tap-ins will be a huge asset.

If there were ever a venue where Scheffler’s T2G game would shine through the most, and his deficiencies on the greens would be mitigated, it’s at a course like LACC. I’m as confident as I’ve been in some time about this, and to this point, I haven’t bothered to make another outright bet. Still room on the card for an add in the 25-35 range, so let's talk about some guys I would be interested in should they drift into that spot on the odds board.

The Shortlist

Cameron Smith (30-1) - One of the bigger overperformers (by my expectations), at last month's PGA Championship now falls into what could only be considered a dream fit as U.S. Open venues go. Cam is certainly a player that will benefit from LACC's more generous fairways, and he comes into the week on the back of 5 consecutive finishes inside the Top 11 (LIV + PGA Championship). On a golf course that places high emphasis on iron play, creativity, and shot-making around the greens, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Australian recaptured some of that 2022 magic and gave LIV a 2-1 lead at the Major Championships.

Tyrrell Hatton (40-1) - I've written Hatton up in two consecutive articles for RotoBaller, and a T3 at Oakdale last week gives me no reason to stop now. Tyrrell continues to play some of the best golf of his life from tee-to-green, and he's sneakily registered 6th and 13th place finishes in recent Major Championships at comp. courses Shinnecock and Southern Hills. The Englishman's game is rounding into form in a way we've never seen prior to a Major Championship, and I've always trusted him in tougher elements when most of the field is ready to submit a formal complaint on course conditions. Drifting to as high as 40-1 in some spots, Hatton represents the best outright value on the betting board by my numbers.

Justin Thomas (50-1) - While the first two names on this list stuck out to me with their recent play, JT's case around LACC this week is built almost entirely on his long-term profile. Thomas has long been considered one of the premier long-iron players on the planet, and the variety of shots he can hit from around the greens is rivaled only by childhood buddy Jordan Spieth. The course fit on paper is fantastic, but a string of disappointing results at Augusta, Oak Hill, and most recently, Muirfield Village certainly dampens my expectations. The million-dollar question is: Is a three-month lapse in form worthy of a drop this severe on the odds board? My gut tells me JT's much too talented to stay dormant for long. 50-1 is about as compelling of a price as I've seen on the Kentuckian in some time.

Mito Pereira (110-1) - If you're in the mood for a deep punt down the odds board, look no further than the 28-year-old Chilean, Mito Pereira. In a tournament that historically rewards athleticism and ball-striking precision, Mito has already established himself as one of the premier tee-to-green mavens in the game. With four top-six finishes in his last eight LIV starts, and two dizzying ball-striking displays in the first two Major Championships of the season (+7.48 OTT and +9.98 APP in eight rounds), Pereira certainly carries a lot higher upside than his triple-digit price tag would indicate. 

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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